Should the 49ers Extend Deebo Samuel this Offseason?
Deebo Samuel is eligible for a contract extension starting this offseason as he enters the final year of his rookie contract with the 49ers.
There is absolutely no question about Deebo's effect on the field – this season he has been their most important offensive player.
In 14 games this season he already has accumulated 1,247 yards, 5 receiving touchdowns, 301 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns. He has been the definition of versatile.
The Niners need to get this deal done soon - largely because of the upcoming wide receiver market.
This offseason, receivers such as Davante Adams, Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson and Mike Williams will be unrestricted free agents.
Adams likely will reset the market – currently the highest average annual salary for a receiver is DeAndre Hopkins at $27.25 million per season. The other receivers won’t reset the market, but will raise the value of the average top receiver contracts.
There are also receivers from Samuel’s own draft class who are in the same boat as him. D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson could all receive extensions this offseason.
I need to address the elephant in this article - Samuel's injury history.
During the 2020 offseason, Samuel suffered a Jones fracture which (along with other injuries) forced him to miss 9 games. This year, he missed 1 game due to a groin pull, and in 2019 he missed 1 game due to a hamstring issue.
He fell to the second round of the 2019 NFL draft largely because he missed time at South Carolina due to hamstring injuries and a broken leg. All of this history will factor into negotiations between Samuel and the 49ers.
Samuel also is older than most players receiving their second contract, with him turning 26-years old this upcoming January.
While there should be some caution with re-signing Samuel, it's in the best interest of both the team and player to get a deal done this offseason as soon as they can.
For the 49ers, getting this deal done right away will be key in keeping his cost down - with all the receivers eligible for extensions, you do not want other teams to determine the market floor for you.
Even if none of them get extensions right away, with free agency approaching in March, the 49ers do not have that much time to wait to make this decision.
By getting this deal done this offseason, they could sign him to a 4-year deal in the $21-$24 million per year range. If they want to wait a season to extend him, the price could balloon all the way up to $28-$30-plus million with the cap expanding in 2023 and other receivers getting paid first.
That $21-$24 million price range sounds steep, but you have to understand that by paying him first, you determine the market, not the other way around.
