Should The 49ers Trade Up in The Draft?
Armed with three late third round picks, three more in the fifth and eleven picks overall, the 49ers face the decision of using those picks for depth or packaging them to move up. Most of the online Faithful want to trade up for a Day 1 starting right tackle.
Easier said than done.
THE AMMO
What’s the max the Niners would reasonably offer? In terms of 2024 picks, after not having a first round pick for years they’re very likely to hold on to it. So, a future 2nd is max. A limit of two third-round picks, not three, because there are other needs. No fifth rounders added because the trade value is too low to move much further up, and the team is unlikely to trade four picks for one. Per the draft trade value chart, two late 3rds and a future 2nd gets the 49ers to the 40s. That’s their realistic trade ceiling.
THE TARGETS
I’ve read Broderick Jones, Darnell Wright, and Anton Harrison. In my mock, and most everyone else’s, they’re all gone in the first or by the top of the 2nd, they don’t last to the 40s. Another factor: would teams in the 40s even want the offer? It’s essentially two 4ths and a 3rd next year. Rookie starting tackles that can start Day 1 are in very short supply, this draft only has 15 first round grades, it’s thin at the top and tackles always go early.
THE LIKELY REALITY
It’s realistic that the Niners can trade up for a tackle, but only in the lower offensive tackle draft tiers, not the lock Day 1 starters.
At that point, it’s about their board. Do they value Matthew Bergeron highly, will the Combine injury to Wanya Morris scare them off, are they sold on Jaelyn Duncan or Blake Freeland? How much separation from those players to who would be available at No. 99 or later?
Some fans are so concerned about right tackle, they’d trade up no matter what, go as high as you can and just take the best tackle on the board, period. But that’s anxiety talking, and it leads to draft train wrecks. Force a position over the best player available in the draft and you take Mike McGlinchey and Javon Kinlaw over Minkah Fitzpatrick and Tristan Wirfs.
THE HIDDEN TRADE
The best trade solution at right tackle could be what’s worked in the Niners’ recent past – a mid-season trade at the deadline for a proven veteran. Worried about how long that would take? Try Week 7.
They would be able to make a trade using the full complement of 2024 picks, and knowing they have at least five comp picks. They’d need a willing partner, but it could be the difference between a ring and nothing.
Who specifically? With luck, Carolina is still rebuilding and willing to move talent for picks. Talk to them about Taylor Moton, one of the league’s best right tackles. His base salary is $1 million, so there are no cap issues to stop a trade at the deadline, though his base salary jumps up to $14.3 million in 2024 and 2025. For cap purposes, Carolina could look to move him for picks before that big payday hits.
The biggest barrier is internal as the Niners would hesitate to pay a right tackle $14 million going forward. It comes down to the play of Colton McKivitz, and if he falls short, just how serious this team is about the Quest for Six.
The Niners could wait until the 2024 draft and potentially Notre Dame’s Blake Fisher. Drafting a right tackle next year is the most likely scenario to upgrade at the position, but passing on a deadline trade lowers their chances at a title this year. They’d also be faced with the knowledge that they didn’t go all out after promising to make every change necessary to win a championship.
WHAT ABOUT SPENCER BURFORD?
Probably not. He has the frame but lacks the footwork, agility, leverage, and base to pass protect at tackle at an elite level. That may have contributed to why he was moved inside to begin with, and that conversation was going on at draft time a year ago.
WHAT ABOUT A TRADE UP AT OTHER POSITIONS?
This one’s interesting, nobody is talking about it with all of the focus on right tackle.
Tight End
Georgia’s 6-7/270 Darnell Washington is the top blocker in the class and an athletic freak, but he could drop into the 40s due to limited production of just 28 catches and two touchdowns. Would the Niners give up the store to get into the 40s for him? Unlikely.
Other tight ends with the upside receiving skills to trade up are Iowa’s Sam LaPorta and South Dakota State’s Tucker Kraft. The question is what trade price would the Niners be willing to pay? Smaller trades up would probably hit a ceiling at 80 (with a 3rd this year and next). LaPorta would be gone by then.
Edge
If the Niners fall in love with an edge rusher in the mid-3rd round, they could trade up. Current projections outside of the first round have the tiers going at 40-60, 75-85 (Byron Young of Tennessee and Army’s Andre Carter) and then the 110s. Doesn’t fall well for the Niners at No. 99-102 so they could look to move.
Mock 1.0 coming at the end of the week.
