Why the 49ers Should NOT Extend Deebo Samuel
Extending Deebo Samuel could cost the 49ers a pretty penny.
In fact, I see it as a lock that Samuel and his camp will want around the $70 million guaranteed mark. The way the wide receiver market has played out this offseason along with an All Pro season from Samuel, all the momentum seems to be on his side.
However, the 49ers could easily feel reluctant in giving Samuel that high price of guarantees. That is where I see the 49ers drawing the line when it comes to a new deal for Samuel. Extending the 2021 All Pro is surely something they will want to do, but only at the right price. The 49ers have always had their own valuation of players and won't exceed a price point that they deem way too much. Kind of like how the New England Patriots operate. Samuel could easily set that pricepoint to be vastly beyond what the 49ers deem as worth it.
And should that pricepoint be around the $70 million guaranteed mark, then the 49ers should NOT extend Samuel.
For starters, the 49ers have NEVER exceeded past $48.7 million in guaranteed money before. The time that they did do so was to Jimmy Garoppolo who plays the most impactful position in football. It's easy to validate guarantees like that for a quarterback. Are the 49ers going to make such a jump from $48.7 million to around $70 million? Probably not.
How I have always envisioned what the 49ers will try to do is keep Samuel's guaranteed money in the $50 million to $60 million range. Perhaps, even lower than $50 million guaranteed. Possibly even a mixture of top running back money and relatively top wide receiver. They will try to do that and enlarge the average per year salary of his contract that puts him among the top paid wide receivers. Having that prestige of APY to his extension could be sufficient to Samuel along with $50 million guaranteed. Never underestimate the image and prestige that these players crave.
A deal like that could be enough for the two sides to ink an extension. I just don't think Samuel will be willing to take a deal like that knowing he can point to the current trend of the wide receiver market. The 49ers will likely draw the line and point out that Samuel has only ONE season of dominance. And that season saw him at his most impactful as a running back -- not a wide receiver. So the Niners could be hard pressed to give Samuel such an extension with high guarantees AND annual per year salary.
I don't think they should give into that if he does seek that.
Samuel is within his rights to demand an extension and aim for the star. Both the 49ers and Samuel have compelling cases/arguments to make for a lucrative extension and for one lesser than the trend of the wide receiver market.
But ultimately I believe the 49ers will set their price for Samuel and not budge too much on it. I certainly do not see them giving him the deals of the likes of Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs. Samuel just doesn't have the track record as those players to warrant a similar contract.
And should he desire it, the 49ers should not extend Samuel to that number.
