Will Trey Lance Have Over or Under 500.5 Rushing Yards in 2022?

Trey Lance brings a whole new set of skills at quarterback for the 49ers.

Mobility is arguably his greatest trait as the 49ers no longer have to suffer with a statue who takes escapable sacks at quarterback. Plus, the read-option now becomes a useful element in the offense.

So Lance can pick up yards with his feet by design or running away from the pressure. There’s a chance Lance can rack up a lot of yardage on the ground, which is why DraftKings sportsbook has set the over/under of rushing yards at 500.5 for Lance. Last year in his limited action, Lance ran for 168 yards.

So will Lance run for over or under 500.5 yards rushing in 2022?

I’m going with the under ever so slightly. Look, Lance got the majority of his 168 yards in a two game span against the Seahawks and the Cardinals. Both of them were essentially emergency and panic situations from Kyle Shanahan. Against the Seahawks, there was zero preparation for Lance, so he was basically thrown into the fire. Against the Cardinals, there wasn’t enough time at all to cater the offense around him, so Shanahan called a cautious one and ran him into the ground. Plus, the offensive line wasn’t holding its own much that game, which forced Lance to scramble a lot.

Those games are more outliers than the standard for him. The real standard will be what he showed against the Texans with 31 rushing yards. In that game, the game plan was more thorough and allowed Lance to showcase his ability rather than to hide him. That’s how I expect it to be for him in 2022.

Now, he will likely rip off a handful of big runs throughout the season via scramble. But I don’t envision him doing more than just a handful. He isn’t the same type of runner as Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray. And he’s levels off of Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick who he gets compared to the most as a runner. Given what he showed last year, he’s not an explosive runner.

He’s good enough to throw a defense off balance with his mobility and will certainly have his moments where a defense will feel the sting of his athleticism. But he’s not a natural born runner like a Jackson, Murray, Newton, or Kaepernick. He’s good for gaining that first-down critical play that’s less than 10-yards with the occasional pop off run. I see Lance getting around 450 yards on the ground, which is the result of a long season.

Do you think Lance will go over or under 500.5 yards rushing?