Over or Under 875.5 Rushing Yards for Raheem Mostert in 2020?
The 49ers’ offense was a lethal force that gave defenses fits every week.
What made the offense so effective was the running scheme in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s system. From Tevin Coleman to Matt Breida, it didn’t matter who was running the rock. San Francisco’s offense was not to be trifled with.
However, when Raheem Mostert started to get his number called upon more and more, the offense was optimized. Once he completely trampled over the Ravens’ defense during Week 13, it was clear the offense was its peak with Mostert. The 49ers went from being lethal to downright unstoppable with him in backfield.
If only Shanahan remembered that in the Super Bowl instead of giving carries to an injured Coleman first. But I digress.
Now that the 49ers know what they have in Mostert, he is sure to see the majority of the carries in 2020. That is why DraftKings sportsbook has set the over/under for Mostert’s rushing yards at 875.5. Keep in mind that he rushed for 772 yards on 137 carries last season. And he didn’t start to see a heavy workload until the final third of the season.
Taking the over isn’t a bad choice here, but the under is the most appealing for me.
The reason being is that Shanahan is not known for having a workhorse at running back, despite the fact that Mostert is clearly ready for it. Rotations are a standard format in Shanahan’s offense, which is why they had three running backs rush for more than 500 yards.
Even if Shanahan acknowledges Mostert as the premier running back, Shanahan still will have his biases. Meaning Coleman still will see his double-digit touches. It’s no secret that Shanahan has a soft spot for him. That much was evident in the Super Bowl.
Another factor that could keep Mostert from eclipsing 875.5 rushing yards is his role as a receiver. When speaking with the local media on a zoom conference call, Mostert revealed that he has been working on his receiving skills. A smart move considering Jerick McKinnon is set to return and be used as a pass catcher.
The injury to McKinnon was what gave Mostert his first role in the offense. The backfield is crowded and, even though Mostert is the best player, Shanahan is sure to use everyone. Exceeding 875.5 rushing yards is definitely achievable for Mostert, but there are just too many factors against him to make it convincing to take the over.
