Will the 49ers De-Claw the Panthers?
Lots of people are overlooking the Panthers. Just look at the 6.5 points the 49ers are favored by. Why not? The Niners have a much better defense, a better offense and a much better coach. Easy win for the good guys right?
Not so fast!
Football is game of matchups. Some of the matchups don't look very favorable for this Sunday.
1) Bryan Burns is an elite edge player. Right tackle Mike McGlinchey has been playing well, but he struggled in Denver vs. the Broncos elite edge players. Left tackle Jaylon Moore was a veritable matador in Denver - Ole!
2) Defensive tackles Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw both missed practice on Wednesday. That leaves the 49ers interior offensive line very thin. Kevin Givens has played very well and so has Hassan Ridgeway. Kerry Hyder can play inside, but he's more suited on the edge. After that we are looking practice squad call ups. Christian McCaffery is top tier back for both his rushing and his receiving prowess. He could be a big problem.
3) The 49ers must travel cross-country on a short week. The only good news there is that kickoff isn't until 1:05 pm PST.
4) The 49ers are coming off of huge win, which could easily lead to an emotional letdown, especially, with so many people saying that this should be an easy win. You can't overlook any opponent in the NFL on any given Sunday.
5) The Panthers have DJ Moore, who is an excellent receiver, and Robby Anderson, who is very good. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has struggled so far this season, but that could change at any moment. Wide receiver Laviska Shenault was thought to be similar to Deebo Samuel prior to being drafted. He has started to flash this season with a 67-yard touchdown catch to help beat the Saints.
6) Despite the offseason special teams upgrades by the 49ers, they are currently ranked 28th. The Panthers special teams are ranked 9th, which appears to be a large advantage.
7) Carolina has a pretty good run defense. They are 12th in yards per rush which is slightly better than average, but I think that they are way better than that. Week 1 they faced Nick Chubb and the Browns, who is the No. 2 running back in the NFL. Week 2 was Saquon Barkley, who is the No. 1 running back in the NFL. Week 3 was Alvin Kamara who is a very good running back. Context is important to consider. It tells me that the Panthers run defense is better than it appears. Teams with good run defenses have always been trouble for the the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan.
8) The Panthers pass defense is also top 10 in net yards allowed. Much better than the Rams pass defense which was missing their No. 2 and No. 3 cornerbacks.
The good news is that free safety Jimmie Ward and cornerback Jason Verrett were back at practice for SF on Wednesday. I doubt that either will play much this week, but it's good to know that they are available, if needed.
Wednesday's injury report. Luckily no surprises here:
More good news is that Panthers star free safety Jeremy Chinn went out onto the Injured Reserve List this week. Missing him will almost certainly weaken both their run and pass defenses. Their strong safety Xavier Woods also has a pulled hamstring, so he may not play either, which would leave the Panthers pretty thin at safety.
Here is the Panthers injury report:
I don't believe that the 49ers will lose, but I do believe that the Panthers might make it close. As I always say, anything can happen in a close game. I have full trust in the 49ers No. 1 ranked defense, but I just don't trust Jimmy Garoppolo if the going gets tough -- especially not with third-string left tackle Jaylon Moore protecting his blind side.
Per usual, I will reply to this article with my official score prediction about an hour prior to kickoff, once we know who will play and who won't.
