NFL Picks: After 10-4-1 Week ATS the Tide Has Turned

Making NFL picks and standing by them is the right approach regardless, and it's been learned by personal experience

The problem with picking against the home team is when you're right, you often end up paying for it when you step on toes.

The perfect example came picking NFL games against the spread in games very early in my time covering the Bears full time, during the Wannstedt era.

It wasn't hard to pick against the Bears then, but this was during the one year the Bears made the playoffs under Wannstedt and the game was against Minnesota in the regular season. There was still some enthusiasm for what he was trying to do.

Of course, the Bears came back to embarrass the Vikings totally in the playoffs at the Metrodome, but during the regular season that year the Bears lost there 42-14 and my picks column in the weekend football section correctly picked the Vikings to cover, and quite easily.

After going to Minnesota for that regular-season game I received a phone call from a shook-up wife, who brought my 1-year-old daughter back from an excursion and played back a message on our answering machine—remember those—and it was some guy making threats to me.

She played it back for me and it was some clown acting obnoxious, obviously overserved, cursing at me and telling me what he was going to do to me for picking against the Bears, and how stupid I would look after the Bears beat the Vikings. He also informed me of half a dozen other things about myself that even I knew nothing about but many had multisyllable, hyphenated words in them. 

I just told my upset wife to forget about it, chalk it up to a mean drunk who had used the phone book. I was listed then, and haven't been since the following week.

It's been a very long time, but to that very obnoxious creep, I told you so.

Last Week

11-4 straight up, 10-4-1 vs. the spread

For the Season

44-19 straight up, 33-29-1 vs. the spread

Top Trends

• Tampa Bay is 4-1 against the spread in its last five on the road

• The total has been under in six of the last seven Bears home games

• It's been over the total in six of the last seven Titans home games

• Jacksonville and Houston games have been under the total five of the last six times

• The Falcons have covered the last five times against the Panthers

• The Eagles have covered five of the last six with Pittsburgh

• The Ravens are 15-2 in their last 17 with the Bengals

• The Patriots have covered five straight at home against the Broncos

• The Cowboys have covered five straight times against the Giants

• Saints games have gone over the total six of the last seven times

The Bears

Bucs -3 1/2 at Bears (44 1/2)...................Bucs 27, Bears 13

Elsewhere

Panthers +2 at Falcons (53 1/2)...............Falcons 36, Panthers 31

Bills -7 1/2 at Titans (47)..........................Bills 30, Titans 26

Raiders +13 at Chiefs (56 1/2).................Chiefs 31, Raiders 21

Cardinals -7 at Jets (46 1/2)....................Cardinals 28, Jets 23

Eagles +7 at Steelers (44)........................Steelers 24, Eagles 20

Rams -7 at Washington (45 1/2).............Rams 27, Washington 16

Bengals +13 at Ravens (51).....................Ravens 40, Bengals 20

Jaguars +6 at Texans (54).......................Texans 27, Jaguars 24

Dolphins +9 at 49ers (46 1/2).................49ers 28, Dolphins 17

Colts -1 1/2 at Browns (46).....................Colts 24, Browns 21

Giants +10 1/2 at Cowboys (54).............Cowboys 33, Giants 17

Broncos +8 at Patriots (47 1/2)..............Patriots 30, Broncos 20

Vikings +7 at Seahawks (57)..................Seahawks 26, Vikings 17

Chargers +7 1/2 at Saints (50 1/2)........Saints 31, Chargers 20

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