Likely and Unlikely Bears Cap Casualties
On the day George McCaskey fired Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy, the Bears owner noted the great effort of many players despite a difficult season.
"It's a little unfair to highlight individual players in a team sport but I want to commend David Montgomery and Roquan Smith, who gave everything they had on every play," McCaskey said. "That's why they're fan favorites."
It was a nice gesture, although the owner who is about to shell out a ton of cash to one of those two and possibly both probably would be better off avoiding public compliments until after the amount of cash to be committed is known, lest they invite even greater cash demand.
"Hey, you commended him and called him a fan favorite. So how about a little something for the effort," the agent could always argue.
It's the time of year when salary cap issues consume all in the NFL and the Bears do not have the same problem they had last year as they're projected at $26.2 million under the cap now by Overthecap.com. Yet, they have Smith to pay and really, Montgomery, too.
Not paying either runs the risk they could finish 2022 without new deals and then could head out into free agency.
Although the Bears appear to have sufficient cash to bring in some players and extend some, they also have a lot of players to add to payroll in a year when there figures to be plenty of roster turnover.
Smith should get the big deal. He's not going to necessarily consume all of their available cap space even though the terms of other big deals for players at his position can sound scary.
Colts linebacker Darius Leonard got a $98.25 million deal with $52.5 million in guarantees and $33 million guaranteed at signing, all figures via Overthecap.com.
Just because Leonard got $33 million guaranteed at signing doesn't mean he counted this much against the cap last year.
They prorate bonus money into the future against the cap even though the player gets the bonus immediatley. Because the new deal came before the final season on Leonard's contract, the Colts could use that last year of his first contract to lower the annual cost and immediate impact for the new one. For instance, Leonard only cost the Colts $8.2 million of cap space in 2021, then $11.16 millon this year before it vaults ahead in the future to around $20 million. The same sort of structure surrounded Warner's 49ers deal. His first cap numbers was $8.1 million before climbing to $18 million and then $22 million.
So what this means is Smith might seem to break the bank, but he won't necessarily wipe out the Bears' $26.2 million in cap space now. They won't need to initiate a salary cap dump the way they did last year when they cut Kyle Fuller and looked closely at cutting Akiem Hicks.
Not all salary cap cuts are done entirely to get a team under the cap. They could be done to make possible the signing of a more expensive player or for personnel issues. The player might not fit their system or they might just look at film and determine he is underperforming.
Here are the most likely salary cap cuts, but they don't all need to come at the same time before the mid-March deadline because the Bears are under the cap anyway. The urgency isn't there, but they could come then just the same.
Until the Bears knew the coaching staff and plan of attack, there was only blind speculation on this topic, but everything is coming more into focus.
They'll want to make sure to save sufficient space for Smith's deal if they repeat the Leonard or Warner deals because those linebackers received their new contracts in late July/early August.
1. QB Nick Foles
He showed he can still play last year. Perhaps Doug Pederson would want him so they can make another statue of the two of them in Jacksonville. Foles is counting $10.66 million of cap space for 2022, sixth most on the Bears roster. They don't need to spend this much for a backup quarterback. The problem is they can only gain back $3 million of his $10.66 million by cutting him. They would get back $8 million by trading him but who's giving up talent for a backup so highly paid? The likely path is they cut him, take their $3 million and say thank you for the effort.
2. NT Eddie Goldman
Their seven-year veteran checks the box on every possible reason for someone to be a cut victim. They've shifted from a two-gap front to a one-gap front and Goldman's forte is two-gap responsibility. His performance stat-wise hit a peak in 2018 and 2017. Since that year he has made only three tackles for loss, opted out of a season and missed another four games with injuries or COVID. When the Bears had Akiem Hicks and Goldman together there was a stat blaring out dominance against the run. They allowed 79 yards rushing a game with those two in the lineup in 2018 and 2019. Age, injuries and the entire defense have all resulted in change. The Bears run defense last season was 23rd in the league, 19th at yards per attempt.
Goldman has a cap figure of $11.8 million for this year but the Bears can get back $6.6 million of it by cutting or trading him or $8.6 million by doing either after June 1. Post-June 1 trades are not common, so if they want something of value in return then a trade to a two-gap AFC team like the Chargers, Broncos, or Ravens. Better this than to cut him and watch him end up in the new Vikings 3-4 front where they would face him twice a year.
3. MLB Danny Trevathan
He's not a fit for a 4-3 at all. Trevathan is at his best with block eaters in front letting him pop out and make the tackle. Taking gap responsibility himself won't work well and he'd need to do this in the 4-3. He's not great in pass coverage and he'd have even more responsibility for this in a 4-3. Plus, his been hurt plenty and missed 30 total Bears games since being on their roster. They save back $3.3 million of his $5.7 cap hit by designating him a post-June 1 cut victim.
4. OLB Jeremiah Attaochu
They brought him in as an outside linebacker backup in the 3-4. He's not Khalil Mack, Robert Quinn and Trevis Gipson, who can put a hand down and play defensive end probably better than they did linebacker in a 3-4. They can save back $2.7 million of a $3.1 million cap hit for this year with a post-June 1 cut designation. He has played only four games in a 4-3 system in an eight-year career. The 49ers and Chiefs signed him to use in 4-3 defenses and both cut him before he played a game. The Chargers had him in a 4-3 when they switched to that style in 2017 and he had a hamstring injury, played his four games but done thereafter.
5. DT Angelo Blackson
Like Goldman, he's a two-gapper. He has played only nose or defensive end in 3-4 defenses over the course of his entire seven-year career, so it's likely they would want to pocket the $2.6 million in savings post-June 1 or $1.9 million before that, from his $3.1 million hit.
6. RB Tarik Cohen
This one would hurt everyone who watched him in 2017-18 but taking the $4 million back post-June 1 for their cap space from his $5.75 million cap hit might give them a better chance to pay Montgomery a new deal. Whether Luke Getsy's new offense even be able to use him the way he was in Matt Nagy's 2018 attack is uncertain. There really was no comparable back in Green Bay but some versions of this offense have used a lot of jet sweeps or end arounds more with smaller receivers and perhaps they would want him in that capacity, provided he is over the knee injury.
7. DE/DT Mario Edwards Jr.
They can save back 3.5 million and eat about three-quarters of a million on a deal they gave him before he disappointed everyone last year, but Edwards is a better fit in a 4-3 as an end or three technique than in last year's defense so they might want to keep him around.
8. G Cody Whitehair
This would make sense if they decided James Daniels is a guard they want to keep and they need to save a bunch of money and invest it in his new contract or bringing in a free agent lineman. They could save $8.1 million of Whitehair's $12.3 million in cap space with a post-June 1 cut designation. But this doesn't make much sense because Whitehair is still a valued blocker and actually fits the wide zone scheme better than the inside zone scheme because of his mobility. Plus, he was a better center than Daniels was and they would retain his ability to back up the starting center. The only way cutting Whitehair makes any sense is as a post-June 1 cut because they would lose money against the cap by cutting him before June 1.
9. S Eddie Jackson
Trading him is too costly for their cap. Cutting him makes little sense because they'd be dining on $9 million in dead cap space even though they could draw back $6.1 million of a $15.1 million cap hit with a post June 1 cut. Besides, they only have Jackson under contract to play safety at the moment among their top five safeties. Better start signing safeties now if this is a course of action.
10. DE Robert Quinn
There is a small amount of logic to cutting or trading Quinn. At least a trade brings in some value but he had 18 1/2 sacks playing in a system unsuited to his abilities. The 4-3 works much better for his skill set, or at least it has in the past. He always says he likes putting his hand in the dirt and rushing better. The reason there is a small amount of logic to this is he would take up only $4.2 million in dead cap after a trade or being cut post-June 1. That's even less than the $4.66 million in dead cap space they have to eat this year for Jimmy Graham's contract. Also, Quinn has never been the best run defender and there is gap responsibility by the defensive end for the run in this new defense. Even last season when he had all the sacks, Pro Football Focus gave him only a 52.0 run-stopping grade, which isn't very good. Still, you're paying Quinn to be the yang to Khalil Mack's Yin.
11. DE Khalil Mack
Forget this stupid idea. Maybe in a year it becomes more more financially sound. But cutting or trading Mack before June 1 means dining on $27 million of dead cap. People are whining now because the Bears will have $5 million of Andy Dalton's bonus as dead cap this year and still $2.8 million of Charles Leno's bonus money a full 1 1/2 years after getting rid of him. What will they say about eating $27 million? The $12.4 million they would eat post-June 1 still is a very undigestible cap meal. Mack turned 31 today, Feb. 22, but 31 for outside pass rushers is not old. Bruce Smith made 99 of his 200 career sacks after turning 30. Julius Peppers made 78 1/2 of his 159 1/2 sacks after turning 30.
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