Consequences if Bears Don't Trade Down
Mock drafts are merely pretend. There is knowledge to be gained from them, however.
No one can figure out who their favorite team will take with a mock draft but they can be educated on possibilities within the draft and on the players.
In this final BearDigest mock draft, the 6.0 version, there is real knowledge to be gained for Bears fans regarding quantity. The Bears will have so much talent right within their grasp but they'll be unable to do anything about it unless GM Ryan Poles starts trading down.
Unlike most earlier versions of the mock draft, this final one was conducted entirely without trading in order to underscore the necessity for Poles to trade down. He should do it multiple times if the opportunities arise.
The Bears have only six picks, no pick in Round 4 and the end result is a huge gap exists between their third and fourth picks. Of course, there is no first-rounder due to the trade last year to move up and acquire Justin Fields.
This final Bears draft looks somewhat barren with only six players selected, considering the team's need now for bodies on their roster. They are far short of what's needed with 63 players on it.
The draft also came up short in terms of selecting players who the Bears have brought in for top-30 visits, those who they have real apparent interest in selecting. It was impossible to take those players because of the early picks made and the lack of enough picks overall, in addition to that lingering gap between early Round 3 and early Round 5..
Here is BearDigest Chicago Bears mock draft 6.0, the final edition.
Second Round, No. 39
WR George Pickens, Georgia
I guess they better think of a wide receiver Byron Pringle is reportedly doing donuts and driving recklessly with a suspended license while he has a child in his Hellcat. The mock draft simulators do not rank Pickens as high as others view him, largely because he didn't play a lot of college games. He was in only 24 games and a torn ACL he had last year limited him to five receptions in 2021. However, he's healthy now. His great hands (2.1 dropped passes per year) and 4.47-second speed in the 40 at 6-foot-3 make him exactly what Justin Fields needs in a go-to X-receiver. If available, they might go to Treylon Burks instead as they've shown him interest, but it seems unlikely the Arkansas receiver would fall so far.
The Bears have their main and only receiver in this draft, largely because of the way the rest of this draft fell above them.
Second Round, No. 48
DT Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma
A home-grown, productive force inside from Lake Park High in Roselle, and a much-needed three technique. The Bears must get better on the defensive line, especially the interior. The desired pick here was a guard, but the best were gone and reaching for a third-rounder like Cole Strange wasn't wise when the Bears also have the 71st pick. Here is where the first trade should come for Poles. It puts him later in the round or in the early third round and nets him more picks. He could pick Strange in that case. So if he doesn't deal down here, he'll be faced with selecting an offensive lineman not graded high enough, or a slot receiver like John Metchie III or even reaching for an edge rusher like Cameron Thomas, a player they have shown good interest in taking.
Not that Winfrey is a bad pick. He's at a needed position, but with those first two picks they may want to come away with at least one offensive lineman and they couldn't without reaching 30 or 40 picks too high.
Third Round, No. 71
T Abraham Lucas, Washington State
Here is the first real example of how they're hurt by not dealing down with one of those first two picks. They seem to really like Strange, from Chattanooga. The Bears also have interest in Penn State safety Jaquan Brisker. Both visited them and have had other contact with them. However, because they didn't trade down and get an extra pick while moving down in Round 2 or into Round 3, they miss out on both players. The Lions took Brisker at No. 66 and Strange went one pick prior to the Bears' selection in Round 3, to Jacksonville at No. 70. So the Bears pick tackle Abraham Lewis of Washington State. It's a solid pick and he could fit their wide zone blocking scheme well as a 6-foot-6, 315-pounder who ran a blazing time for a tackle in the 40 at 4.92 seconds. They can't complain here, but could have had the guy they really wanted without reaching as well as an extra pick or two if they simply traded down.
Round 5, No. 148
CB Josh Jobe, Alabama
In every draft there is serendipity. The GM says we never expected Joe Schmoe to fall into our laps. Here the Bears would be thinking cornerback or receiver and they luck out as a player graded about 30 picks higher slipped through the cracks to them. It's a needed break because they are waiting 77 picks since their last selection and it's here where everyone has seen the impact of what happens if they do not trade down with pick No. 48.
Jobe has skills and great athleticism but falls after struggling much of his final season with the Crimson Tide for a reason best revealed in a comment printed on NFL.com and attributed to an unnamed AFC scout:
"He played with a busted foot for part of the year so I give him credit for that, but he just wasn't very good (in 2021)."
By not trading down and getting the extra pick or two to plug that gap after No. 71, the Bears miss out on picking linebacker Brian Asamoah, who doesn't go until No. 90 in Round 3. He's obviously a player who caught their eye and had a top-30 visit. Cornerback Alontae Taylor, who could also play safety, went at 95. They missed a chance to add another good wide receiver they've visited with, Alec Pierce from Cincinnati. He went at 80. Kerby Joseph, the Illinois safety they had in for a visit, went in that gap at No. 109. Burner wide receiver Velus Jones Jr. from Tennessee (125) and Justin Fields' former offensive line teammate Thayer Munford, a guard (127) were taken during this gap. SMU burner wide receiver Danny Gray, another player the Bears visited with, was unavailable to them as he went at 129 in that big gap. Chosen at 131 was another blazing fast receiver they visited with, Tyquan Thornton of Baylor. He ran 4.28 in the 40. Too many players the Bears would have interest in went away in that huge chasm and this should tell everyone Poles must looking to trade down multiple times to gain picks and balance out his draft.
Round 5, No. 150
G Lecitus Smith, Virginia Tech
A player who isn't an exact fit but at this point they need a right guard badly to replace James Daniels and Va-Tech players have been successful throughout the league the past few years. The Bears have one at running back in Khalil Herbert. Smith is 6-3 1/2, 314 and ran a midling 5.18-second 40-yard dash, but what is noted on several reports is Smith moves extremely well laterally and is a good fit in a wide zone scheme even if he does lack straight-ahead speed. He's not a player the Bears have shown interest in, but in Round 5 and after seeing so many coveted players drafted by someone else, this is a very solid pick.
Round 6, No. 186
CB Damarri Mathis, Pitt
Once again the draft gods smile on the Bears, but they have to make a tough choice. They need a candidate for starting safety or another receiver because now they have uncertainty over Pringle. And these late players all come flawed. But somehow in this mock Mathis has dropped right into their laps and he's far too good to pass up. He's actually been surging in popularity as a pick in mocks by analysts. Mathis doesn't have to be a cornerback, as there are questions about his one-on-one coverage skills on the boundary, but he has 4.39-second speed. Better yet, he shocked the NFL by putting up an incredible 43.5-inch vertical leap. That might actually constitute flying. At the very least, he's an anti-gravity defensive back. His athletic ability alone would allow him to convert to safety easily. He could be an outside corner by improving coverage skills, according to scouting reports, but the Bears can simply give him a shot at safety if they desire.
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