The Argument for Picking Up Mitchell Trubisky's Fifth-Year Option
The decision on Mitchell Trubisky's fifth-year contract option is due Monday and the debate rages whether the Bears should pick it up.
Ian Rapoport of NFL Network thinks they should.
"It would make a lot of sense to do it, right?" Rapoport said. "Most teams, when in doubt, do it. And there's far more examples of teams, you know, declining the option and regretting it than the reverse."
He's right. It makes sense to do it. Most teams do it. but that's not a reason to do it.
The reason to do it is he's performed at a level where most teams pick up the option.
It's definitely not a cut-and-dried decision. It's complicated and difficult. It involves the future of a franchise.
There's a monetary reason why they should do it. The other part of the equation is a talent decision.
According to figures kept by Sharp Football Analysis, 71% of the players whose fifth-year contract options came due for decision had it picked up (150 of 209). This started with the 2011 collective bargaining agreement, which instituted the fifth-year options.
The fifth-year option is for players who were first-round draft picks.
So 29% declined isn't necessarily a tiny figure.
The Bears have both picked up options and declined them. They have made the right decision and moved on twice. They've been burned both ways, or at least they could have been burned both ways.
They didn't pick it up for linebacker Shea McClellin or for wide receiver Kevin White and no one regretted it.
They didn't pick it up for cornerback Kyle Fuller and they never regretted it because he rebounded from a knee injury to play spectacular football. They gladly shelled out the money for a fair contract extension.
They picked it up for Leonard Floyd and would have regretted it, as his sack total literally dwindled every year.
However, they never got the chance to regret it because the option wasn't guaranteed except for injury, like Trubisky's. So they were able to cut him despite picking it up and use the money to bring in a legitimate pass rusher in Robert Quinn.
So there's always a risk of injury and if this happened they would have very little money available to simply dispose of Trubisky's contract and devote the cash to another quarterback. With Nick Foles on the team, though, they shouldn't need to devote a lot of money to the new backup quarterback and they really wouldn't if it was a draft pick.
Picking it up makes sense from this standpoint.
Now for the talent issue, and it's a little less clear cut.
The ratio of quarterbacks who had their option picked up to those who didn't is slightly less than the 71% for the full pool of fifth-year options.
There have been 10 quarterbacks who had theirs picked up and drop that by one because this one was RG III and an injury factor was involved. The same was true the other way with Teddy Bridgewater. His option was declined after a horrible knee injury. Toss those two out of the equation and it's nine picked up and five declined.
More interesting than the numbers is the names and production involved.
Here are the other quarterbacks who had theirs picked up: Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehill, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Blake Bortles and Deshaun Watson.
Here are the quarterbacks who had theirs declined: Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder and EJ.Manuel.
Which group does Trubisky belong with? It's fairly clear it's the first bunch, although he's definitely near the bottom with Bortles, Mariota and Winston.
Of four major categories—passer rating, yards per attempt, completion percentage and starting record—Trubisky is better in almost every statistic than every player in the declined group. Locker averaged 7.0 yards an attempt, which was better, but it was the only stat where someone in the rejected group topped him.
Lowest-Ranked QBs With 5th-Year Options Picked Up
| Quarterback | Passer Rating | Completion Pct. | Yards/Attempt | Win/Loss as Starter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Marcus Mariota | 89.6 | 62.9 | 7.5 | 29-32 |
Cam Newton | 86.1 | 59.6 | 7.3 | 68-55-1 |
Mitchell Trubisky* | 85.8 | 63.4 | 6.7 | 23-18 |
Jameis Winston | 84.3 | 61.3 | 7.7 | 28-42 |
Blake Bortles | 80.6 | 59.3 | 6.7 | 24-49 |
*-5th Year Option pickup projected
All QBs With 5th-Year Options Declined
| Quarterback | Passer Rating | Completion Percentage | Yards/Attempt | Win/Loss as Starter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jake Locker | 79.0 | 57.5 | 7.0 | 9-14 |
EJ Manuel | 77.1 | 58.1 | 6.4 | 6-12 |
Christian Ponder | 75.9 | 59.8 | 6.3 | 14-21-1 |
Blaine Gabbert | 71.7 | 56.2 | 6.1 | 13-34 |
So Trubisky belongs with the fifth-year accepted group, but not by much.
An argument could be made along the lines of this being a special situation because there's a replacement quarterback in the wings waiting, so why not reject the option?
Do they really have a replacement starter waiting?
They have a good backup quarterback and former Super Bowl MVP, but Foles' record as a starting quarterback has hardly been sterling throughout his career.
The final argument for picking it up is because it's simply good for business to reward a player when they lived up to the standard the rest of the league and market set.
If not, they run the risk of damaging the franchise's reputation.
The McCaskey ownership family fought the age-old myth about the organization being cheap for years before finally burying it.
They don't need it starting up all over again.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
