Bears Free Agent Projections
Free agency begins March 14 with the legal tampering period, and the rumors will start to swirl when teams convene on the combine in Indianapolis this week.
The Bears have a long list of free agents of their own to address before the signing period begins. They need to have their restricted free agents tendered by March 16.
The franchise free agent period is underway now but don't expect Allen Robinson's name on it like last year due to the high cost. He received almost $18 million last year and would be due 120% of that this year if tagged. Besides, Matt Eberflus and the new coaching staff and GM Ryan Poles will have different directions they want to take the team in the future.
Here are the Bears free agents and the projected likelihood of retention. These are all the players who have not signed contracts of any type for 2022, so the list does not include those who have already been added on futures contracts.
This is the scale: Certain, probable, moderate, coin toss, unlikely, slim and none.
Unrestricted
WR Allen Robinson — 28 years old, 2021 salary $17.9 million. Robinson endured the worst of his four Bears seasons while he had the franchise tag for the entire season. Part of the issue was a hamstring injury that took him out of four games and then he had COVID-19 and lost 10 pounds. He played in 12 games and had a career low of 10.8 yards a reception to go with one touchdown catch, his lowest total in a season when he played more than one game. His 38 receptions for 410 yards were his worst totals aside from when he tore his ACL in Jacksonville in Week 1. The franchise tag itself proved a problem. As a franchise player he didn't work in the offseason with the teame, except in mandatory minicamp. He never got a feel in the passing game for Justin Fields, and in training camp and preseason was with the first team while Fields was with the backups. When the two finally started to connect against Pittsbugh in Week 9, Robinson suffered the hamstring injury. He never made more than six catches in a game in 2021. All of this happened after Robinson had the most contested catches since 2018 coming into the season. A reported rift developed between Robinson and former Bears coach Matt Nagy before the season, and then it seemed he was being used as a No. 2 receiver. There is a new GM and new coach, but because of Robinson's lack of production, an inability to gain yards after the catch throughout his time in Chicago -- he was 223rd in the league (101 yards) last year -- it seems unlikely to result in a new Bears deal that would meet his demands.
Likelihood to return: Slim.
RG James Daniels — 24 years old, $2.97 million cap hit in 2021 ($2.18 million salary). Daniels was moved from left guard to right guard as he came out of a 2020 season when he went out in Week 5 with a torn pectoral muscle. He played all season and was the best run blocker the Bears had, according to Pro Football Focus' grading system (71.8 run-blocking grade). Daniels officially committed a team-high eight penalties. PFF reported he allowed three sacks. He hadn't allowed more than one in any of his other three seasons. The second-round pick from Iowa was a center in college and played it for half a season with the Bears, but with mediocre results. Working against a Daniels return is the fact new GM Ryan Poles was an offensive lineman and has his own expertise in the area. He's particular about what he likes in linemen. Cash will be the determining factor with Daniels. It's been reported by the Chicago Tribune he could reach up to $12 million average a year. Other market estimates have varied between $7.3 million to $10.6 million. This is a player who would fit what the team plans to do with the wide-zone blocking scheme.
Likelihood to return: Moderate.
DE Akiem Hicks — 32 years old, 2021 cap cost $12 million, $8 million in salary. A defensive leader and brutal force against the run and pass at 6-foot-4, 335 pounds, Hicks hasn't been able to stay healthy since 2018. There have been no season-ending injuries or chronic issues, though. He turns 33 in November but is a player who is limited because he is a 3-4 end who has always been used in a two-gap front. A team in a 4-3 with a one-gap front would find him less useful. Brutal strength and explosiveness are his calling cards. He has 40 1/2 career sacks and 73 tackles for loss but last year missed eight games with groin and foot injuries as well as COVID-19. He had 23 sacks his first three Bears seasonsand has had eight the last three as he missed 20 out of 49 games. Hicks doesn't specialize in what the Bears plan to do on defense now as they switch to a 4-3. He can play three technique instead of four or five but it would look different and he'd be less effective.
Likelihood to return: Slim.
DE Bilal Nichols — 25 years old, 2022 cap cost $2.97 million ($2.18 million salary). A fifth-round pick in 2018, Nichols' production has exceeded expectations but he never seems to break through to an elite level. Nichols has done an excellent job playing off of his teammates' success when they've been double-teamed but hasn't been the primary big-play maker. Part of the issue is minor injuries have derailed the former Delaware player as he gained momentum throughout his time in Chicago. Last year he had foot and finger issues and played through them, but wasn't as effective after each. He had 11 sacks in four seasons with 18 tackles for loss and nine quarterback hits. Nichols offers great versatility and can benefit a 3-4 team up front in a few different ways. He played end and expanded to nose at times in 2020 when Eddie Goldman opted out. Usually the Bears used him at end in a 3-4 base. At times he was allowed to rush from the three technique in their 4-3 nickel package, but it was telling when they signed Mario Edwards Jr. to do this specifically for the 2020 season. Nichols could play three technique in a 4-3 but lacks the top-end explosiveness the best at that position possess. The Bears have lost two supporting defensive linemen in successive years in Roy Robertson-Harris and Nick Williams, and Nichols could make it 3-for-3.
Likelihood to return: Coin toss.
S Tashaun Gipson — 31 years old, 2021 cap cost of $1.8 million ($1.1 million salary). A bargain as an experienced plug for a hole the team had at starting safety alongside Eddie Jackson, Gipson produced. He had four interceptions in two seasons and 10 pass breakups. The former Jaguars, Browns and Texans safety is 6-1, 207 and still a viable player. He missed five games with hamstring and quad issues in 2021. Gipson improved his passer rating against from 96.3 to 76.0 last year because he allowed only one TD pass, but his completion percentage allowed was high for four years, up to 76.7% from 63.6% in 2020. The need for more secondary speed and his age work against his return.
Likelihood to return: Unlikely.
QB Andy Dalton — 34 years old, 2021 cap cost of $10 million ($2.5 million salary). Brought in to be a bridge quarterback, he was a short bridge. It took 1 1/2 games before Dalton suffered an injury. He's had two injury-plagued seasons. A concussion in Dallas and bone bruise to his knee last year have been issue. Dalton had a miserable four-interception game against Arizona that destroyed his passer rating. He had a career-low passer rating. Mobility is an issue here with 18 sacks taken in eight games and six starts. His yards per attempt hit a career low of 6.4 and although he thinks of himself as a starter for some team, it's obvious he is a backup now. He could be an effective backup but it was rather telling how Nick Foles came in against Seattle when neither Dalton nor Justin Fields could play and led a win with an impressive effort better than any Dalton produced. He was 149 of 236 for 1,515 yards with eight TDs and nine interceptions in 2021. The Bears still will have his bonus money counting on their cap space this year.
Likelihood to return: None.
TE Jimmy Graham — 35 years old, 2021 salary $8 million. The Bears got good return in 2020 for their signing of Graham but didn't use him or he didn't produce last year. He didn't get to play as big a role as in 2020 because second-year tight end Cole Kmet was used more. A signing team would need to determine whether it was the Bears' use or his decline that resulted in career lows of 14 catches for 167 yards. He still seems able to get open in the red zone, as he had three TD catches. This was high considering his limited playing time with 27% of the snaps, and also the limited number of times the Bears actually got into the red zone. Some team might want to squeeze a year out of him as a designated red-zone guy but not a team trying to rebuild with a new offense under a second-year quarterback.
Likelihood to return: None.
T Jason Peters — 40 years old, $1.5 million 2021 cap hit, $1.07 million salary. Peters was a godsend as starting left tackle when called upon in an emergency after rookie Teven Jenkins required preseason back surgery. He started all year with only two games off for injuries. He even gutted out a high ankle sprain. Pro Football Focus graded him as the best Bears offensive lineman and called him the No. 22 tackle in the NFL regardless of the side of the line. He appears headed for Canton at some point but a rebuilding team with two second-year tackles who need to play would likely sign him only if he was to return as a backup. He had past ties to former coach Matt Nagy and former line coach Juan Castillo, and returned in Chicago partly for this reason. Also, at this point in his career he's not a real candidate to roll back in with a team using the wide-zone blocking scheme the Bears plan to deploy in 2022.
Likelihood to return: Slim.
T/G Germain Ifedi — 27 years old, $4.25 million ($2.25 million guaranteed). A 6-5, 344-pounder, he fit well for the way they wanted to play using an inside zone scheme for the past two years. He started 23 games for the Bears. A penalty waiting to happen in Seattle for four years, Ifedi virtually eliminated this habit in Chicago as starter at both guard and tackle. He had seven false starts and one holding penalty in two seasons, well down from his time piling up double-digit penalties with the Seahawks. He wasn't a smashing success as a blocker, but got the job done. PFF graded him at a mediocre 58.6 and 62.8 (2020) the last two years as a run blocker and the Bears are looking for something more as their ground game has been sporadic, even non-existent when they faced good defenses. If he returned, it would be as backup and depends on the cash.
Likelihood to return: Slim.
WR Jakeem Grant — 29 years old, $2.3 million average salary in 2021. Emergency acquisition for a seventh-round pick after the Bears had injury issues and personnel problems at punt returner. They hadn't acquired him as a receiver but found he could fit in this regard, as well. He made the Pro Bowl as a punt returner with 18 returns in Chicago for a 13.9-yard average and a team-record 97-yard punt return TD. He made nine catches for 139 yards on 131 offensive plays. At a lower cost, he'd be worth retaining. He's essentially a punt returner, though, because getting smaller (5-7, 171) at receiver is not something in the plans for this offense. Bigger and faster is where they want to go.
Likelihood to return: Coin toss.
P Pat O'Donnell — 31 years old, $1.75 million in 2021. Well paid for a punter and not necessarily great as a distance punter. He has improved in this regard, however. The fact half his punts come in a place as difficult to punt as Soldier Field must be taken into account. His 46.2-yard average in 2021 was his second best but his net yards suffered partly due to a poor punt coverage group but also due to lower punts. He's been adept at putting it inside the 20 through his career but was 21st in the NFL with 18 of those last year. Ryan Winslow has already been signed as camp competition, so if O'Donnell comes back it will be a situation where he needs to prove himself to new GM Ryan Poles and coach Matt Eberflus.
Likelihood to return: Moderate.
LS Patrick Scales — 34 years old, $987,500 salary for 2021. The question isn't his snapping as much as how old a player can be and still not be a negative influence on punt coverage. The Bears struggled in punt coverage last year. Did his age and lack of athleticism factor in? That's pretty difficult to gauge. No one has ever complained about his punting or placement snaps and that's why he's on the roster. But the Bears brought in Beau Brinkley already to provide camp competititon.
Likelihood to return: Coin toss.
S Deon Bush — 28 years old, $1.5 million salary in 2021. A dependable backup safety who is probably better at running, tackling and covering than he is at actually making a play on the football. He is coming off a career high of two interceptions and his four starts were his most since his rookie year. He made a solid 40 tackles and has always been involved heavily in special teams. They'd be interested in keeping him for a seventh year as long as the cost stayed at backup levels.
Likelihood to return: Moderate.
S DeAndre Houston-Carson — 28 years old, $1.1 million cost in 2021 ($987,500 salary). A skilled special teams performer who annually challenges for the team lead in special teams tackles. He also has been used the last three years more extensively in dime coverage packages as an extra safety or even in the nickel spot and has been effective. He has made an interception each of the last two years and last year his hustle completely impressed coaches. The tackle he made to prevent a touchdown at the 1-yard line after Deebo Samuel broke an 83-yard screen pass was talked about by coaches for weeks. He made his first three career starts in Year 6 and finished with career highs of 51 tackles and four pass defenses.
Likelihood to return: Probable.
TE Jesse James — 27 years old, $1.65 million cap cost ($1 million salary) in 2021. A good idea last year but then they didn't use him enough in 12- or 13- personnel packages. He played only 29% of offensive snaps after building an obvious rapport with Justin Fields in the passing game during preseason. He caught only seven passes on eight targets for 62 yards and a TD. An average blocker with a below-average group of blocking tight ends. His return would depend on Luke Getsy's plans at the position and the cost.
Likelihood to return: Coin toss.
RB Damien Williams — 29 years old, $1.5 million cost in 2021. The Bears needed a backup running back but then didn't need him after Khalil Herbert stepped up as a rookie and proved effective. Williams opted out in 2020 and it wasn't entirely clear this hurt him as much as injuries. He was a backup needed when David Montgomery suffered a knee sprain and then he wasn't available when most needed due to knee and then calf injuries that kept him sidelined four weeks. By the time he returned, so did Montgomery. The Bears saw evidence he could both catch passes and run, still, as he averaged 4.3 yards a rush and caught 16 passes but availability for a backup running back is the best ability. He was a Nagy/Kansas City acquisition and Nagy is back in Kansas City.
Likelihood to return: Slim.
WR Marquise Goodwin — 31 years old, $1.28 million cost ($1.075 million salary). Goodwin lived down to his reputation for coming up with lesser injuries and did it at the worst possible time, when Allen Robinson was out injured on Thanksgiving in Detroit. He had only four catches over the final seven weeks of the season and they obviously wanted more than 20 catches for the year from a third receiver.
Likelihood to return: None.
WR Damiere Byrd — 27 years old, $1.28 million cost ($990,000 salary) for 2021. It took a while to get the trust of Fields and also coaches, but then he started to produce as a slot or Z-receiver. He made 22 of his 26 receptions in the final eight weeks of the season and flashed good speed at times. He even had yards after catch in an offense that usually allowed for very little YAC. Working against Byrd returning is the fact he is 5-7, 175 pounds. Getsy was coaching a Packers team with receivers who were 1 1/2 inches taller and 23 pounds heavier on average than the Bears receivers. The Smurf era is gone in Chicago now and it seems Byrd wouldn't fit the plan going forward. Still, if they looked at production they might change their minds. Also working against him is his lack of ability in special teams. He tried to help as a return man and muffed a punt. He's not big enough to help in coverage.
Likelihood to return: Coin toss.
LB Christian Jones — 31 years old, $1.2 million ($1.07 salary) cost in 2021. Another old 3-4 linebacker on a team that needs youth, speed and 4-3 linebackers. He made 24 tackles and played 21.2% of defensive snaps. At 6-3, 245, he still had some special teams value last season.
Likelihood to return: Slim.
T/G Elijah Wilkinson — 27 years old, $1.1 million cost ($990,000 salary) in 2021. A swing tackle who has played guard. The only problem is he doesn't like to swing to the left side of the line. He was very apprehensive about being asked to play left tackle after injuries to Teven Jenkins, Larry Borom and Jason Peters, but Peters gutted out an injury and so Wilkinson got to stay on the right side. He is most comfortable at right guard or tackle. The Bears got little use from him with 16% of offensive snaps and only 14% of special teams snaps in a year when they had far more than their share of injuries at tackle.
Likelihood to return: Slim.
ILB Alec Ogletree — 30 years old, $1.075 million for 2021. An emergency signing due to Danny Trevathan's injury and the inability of Bears backups to step up at inside linebacker, he filled a starting role and received accolades from Chicago coaches, teammates and media, although his production was far from adequate. Pro Football Focus graded him the 83rd best linebacker out of 84 they graded in the NFL. The Bears were 23rd against the run in 2021, their poorest rank since 2016, and he was a part of this. Ogletree made 87 tackles, four passes defended and five for loss and his effort and leadership were excellent. The production wasn't great. Beyond this, Ogletree has always fit better in a 3-4 scheme. The last time he played in a 4-3 was under Jeff Fisher in St. Louis in 2016.
Likelihood to return: Slim.
CB Artie Burns — 26 years old, $990,000 for 2021. He was coming off an ACL tear so his 2022 season might be a better indication of what he can do. The Bears cut him, brought him back as a practice squad player and then activated him. When Kindle Vildor flopped at starting left cornerback, he inherited the spot and was below average in performance for 11 games and six starts. He made 23 tackles and did break up six passes, but had a 115.1 passer rating against when targeted and 65.4% completions allowed according to Sportradar. A very solid tackler who performed on special teams and could be an experienced reserve for the right team.
Likelihood to return: Coin toss.
ILB Joel Iyiegbuniwe — 26 years old, $784,644 cost for 2021. A fourth-round pick in 2018 from Western Kentucky who did not pan out. He said he wasn't given a chance in an Instagram post after the season. Iyiegbuniwe was one of their more effective special teams players the past three seasons. How would the 6-1, 235-pounder fit in the 4-3 defense? No one can say for sure because they don't even know how he fit in the 3-4 defense. He had only 49 plays on defense in four seasons.
Likelihood to return: Slim.
OLB Cassius Marsh — 30 years old, $1,07 million in 2021. Signed as a 3-4 outside linebacker but he has more value as an end in a 4-3 because he really has little pass coverage ability. He could be brought back as camp competition or a fourth defensive end He was well known for his taunting penalty against Pittsburgh, the kind of thing that doesn't fit well with the new regime. He suffered a knee injury and finished last year on IR.
Likelihood to return: Slim.
DL Margus Hunt — 35 years old, $1,07 million in 2021. Normally old defensive linemen won't be a fit in a changeover like the Bears are about to conduct, but Hunt played for Eberflus with the Colts before he was with the Bears and found a way to fit in as a defensive end or tackle with the ability in passing situations to swat passes at 6-foot-8..
Likelihood to return: Coin toss.
DE Bruce Irvin — 35 years old, $1,07 million in 2021. Signed just to help them get through the year as injuries and COVID-19 hit the roster. He was always more of an edge in a 3-4 anyway and there are younger Bears to look at now at defensive end.
Likelihood to return: Slim.
S Marqui Christian — 28 years old, $850,000 in 2021. Special teams player who made 12 tackles but was a disaster when used on defense in coverage with three TD passes allowed in 12 targets. He could come back for camp as they look at special teams players and backups..
Likelihood to return: Coin toss.
Restricted
TE JP Holtz — 28 years old, $850,000 salary for 2021. He has played the role of blocking out of the backfield and hasn't caught a pass since 2019. The Bears will not tender him an offer and his return will depend on whether he can negotiate a low-cost deal, as well as whether they want an actual fullback in their new offense or another H-back type. He has been a valued special teams player.
Likelihood to return: Coin toss.
G/T Alex Bars — 26 years old, $850,000 salary for 2021. A valued backup with enough versatility to play every line spot, even center in a pinch. He has started 11 games the last two seasons and was always adequate to above average. He had to play 568 offensive snaps in 2020 but just 92 last year. He'll not be tendered an offer as he was undrafted, and the Bears will hope to bring him back. It's likely they will offer him a longer-term contract than most RFAs who were undrafted will command.
Likelihood to return: Probable.
RB Ryan Nall — 26 years old, $850,000 salary in 2021. He hasn't really been used as a back and has been a heady special teams player with 577 special teams play appearances in three years. This could get them to bring him back on a minimum deal. He has been on the field for only 95 snaps on offense with nine catches for 71 yards and six rushes for 12 yards. The old regime liked his pass blocking in must-pass situations but he offers little speed and the age of the bigger, slower back is long gone in the NFL.
Likelihood to return: Coin toss.
S Teez Tabor — 26 years old, $850,000 salary in 2021. He never lived up to his second-round draft status with Detroit but the Bears liked him as a backup safety and special teams player with six games played last season. He has had six NFL starts, including one last year when COVID hit the team. He can also play some cornerback in a pinch. Definitely won't be tendered and will need to make his own contract, most likely at a league minimum somewhere. Considering his experience and athletic ability, the Bears will probably think about retention.
Likelihood to return: Coin toss.
CB Xavier Crawford — 26 years old, $850,000 salary in 2021. Restricted free agent who could get a minimum deal to come to camp but didn't perform well last year when pressed into duty. He started two games, had 139 plays and was targeted 15 times, allowing three touchdowns for a passer rating against of 142.2 according to Sportradar.
Likelihood to return: Coin toss.
Exclusive Rights
C Sam Mustipher — 25 years old and made $741,917 last year. He started every game. He'll get the minimum retention tender for exclusive rights free agents and automatically be retained but will have competition for the starting job. He built himself up after being a bit undersized for the NFL but didn't win much praise from outside the organization, namely Pro Football Focus.
Likelihood to return: Certain.
T Lachavious Simmons —25 years old and an inexperienced backup as a former seventh-round pick. He can be retained for a minimum offer. He made $780,000 last year.
Likelihood to return: Certain.
TE Jesper Horsted —25 years old, $780,000 in 2021. Considering he has 10 catches, three for touchdowns in his two seasons played, the new staff probably needs to consider him more for playing time than the other staff did. .He'll be back either way, as an exclusive rights free agent, merely by being tendered.
Likelihood to return: Certain.
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