Bears and Packers: TV, Radio, Odds and the Pick
Chicago Bears (5-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-3)
Kickoff: 7:20 p.m., Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis.
TV: NBC (Mike Tirico, Tony Dungy, Kathryn Tappen)
Radio: WBBM-AM 780, 105.9 FM (Jeff Joniak, Tom Thayer, Mark Grote)
National Radio, Westwood One (Ryan Radtke, James Laurinaitis)
Spanish: Univision Deportes 1200 AM, 93.5 FM (Hector Lopez, Miguel Esparza)
The Series: 201st matchup. The Packers lead the series 99-95-6. The Packers have won the last two and 19 of the last 23..
The Line: Packers by 8 1/2 (45 over/under)
BearDigest Pick: Packers 24, Bears 10
Last Week: The Bears had a bye and had lost 19-13 on Nov. 16 to the Minnesota Vikings when they managed only two first downs in the second half at Soldier Field.
The Packers lost 34-31 in overtime to the Indianapolis Colts on the road, as they had a 28-14 halftime lead but allowed 97 rushing yards after the half and for the game turned the ball over four times.
The Coaches: Bears coach Matt Nagy is 25-17 in his third year and is 1-3 against the Packers.
Packers coach Matt LaFleur is 20-6 in his second year and is 2-0 against the Bears.
The Quarterbacks: Mitchell Trubisky makes his first start sinice Week 3 and his 45th overall. Trubisky is 1-4 in five starts against the Packers, completing 119 of 196 for 1,265 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. His passer rating against the Packers is 80.0 On the season, Trubisky is 51 of 86 for 560 yards with six TDs and three interceptions with an 87.4 passer rating.
Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has led the Packers to an 18-5 record in his starts against the Bears for the regular season and also won a playoff game over them, the 2010 NFC championship. This season Rodgers is 240 of 352 for 2,889 yards with 29 TDs and four interceptions. He has an NFL-best passer rating of 115.8 . Against the Bears, Rodgers is 488 of 739 for 5,562 yards with 47 TDs and 10 interceptions. His passer rating against them is 104.0.
Injury Report
Bears
Doubtful
- QB Nick Foles (hip)
Questionable
- DE Akiem Hicks (hamstring)
- LT Charles Leno Jr. (toe)
- DB Sherrick McManis (hand)
- CB Buster Skrine (ankle)
- G/T Rashaad Coward (ankle, knee)
Packers
Questionable
- CB Josh Jackson (concussion)
- RB Tyler Ervin (wrist, ribs )
- CB Kevin King (achilles)
- C Corey Linsley (back)
- WR Equanimeous St. Brown (knee)
- WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (achilles)
Matching Up
The Bears are 31st on offense, 24th passing and 32nd (last) ini rushing. They are ninth on defense, 10th against the pass and 15th against the run.
The Packers are sixth on offense, seventh at passing and 13th at rushing. They are 12th on defense, 14th against the pass and 13th against the run.
Key Individual Matchups
Bears RB David Montgomery vs. Packers ILB Kamal Martin
Montgomery's absence against Minnesota due to a concussion was a huge problem for the Bears, although not as great as their own offensive line's struggles. Without the presence of Tarik Cohen as a counter punch, Montgomery has still put up some extremely impressive statistics. They're numbers which might go unnoticed because they're not mainstream statistics. Montgomery is third in the NFL in broken tackles and eighth in yards after contact. It's not easy to achieve either of these when the offensive line rarely supplies much daylight, but Montgomery makes his own and keeps fighting. Matt Nagy has several times indicated how much he appreciates this while the Bears do nothing to help. It might indicate a great deal a when a defense is looking at a rookie fifth-round draft pick to solidify their ability to stop the run, but this is the case with Martin. He is now over injury problems and the Packers had high hopes initially for him. Starting linebacker Christian Kirksey hasn't had a banner year, posting a Pro Football Focus grade of 49.9. So Martin has become sort of the last Packer hope to finally shut down the run after they lost tackling machine Blake Martinez due to free agency.
Bears WR Allen Robinson vs. Packers CB Kevin King
Robinson is coming off his worst overall game since facing the Giants in Week 2. The Bears offense as a whole had nothing going and he wasn't exempt from this. They seem to ignore him in the red zone, although opponents don't and this could explain his lack of use there. The opposition would rather deploy coverage to stop him than , say, Jimmy Graham, and this is part of the reason Robinson has been targeted only seven times in 60 red-zone snaps. They've targeted Graham 13 times. Robinson won't have his normal height and reach advantage in this game because King is 6-foot-3. Robinson's success, though, comes from a size and strength edge, as well as his hands and focus. In this regard, he can beat King for big catches. King is an injury-prone player who has just returned from another one. He's giving up 64.7% completions and a passer rating of 110.9 when targeted, according to NFL official stat partner Sportradar. Also, he's had a problem with making tackles as he has seven missed tackles in 30 attempts, a relatively high 23.3% miss rate. Robinson might by able to out-physical King to provide help to whichever Bears quarterback is healthy enough to start, most likely Mitchell Trubisky at this point considering he was at practice Monday and Nick Foles was not.
Bears OLB Khalil Mack vs. Packers RT Billy Turner
Mack hasn't had a sack the last two games but did make an interception when defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano pulled him off into coverage. The Bears need to get their pass rush from Mack in this one because Robert Quinn on the other side has been unable to do anything against even the most vulnerable tackles and this week faces one of the best in David Bakhtiari. Turner is actually a sort of the antithesis of Germain Ifedi with the Bears. While Ifedi was a lifetime tackle the Bears made into a guard, Turner is a lifetime guard the Packers moved out to right tackle and got some better play from than they'd been getting from other players at the position. He has a 65.9 Pro Football Focus grade for the season, not high but certainly average. By comparison, Charles Leno Jr. has been at 69.3 and Bobby Massie 72.6 for the Bears, so take it down a notch or so and this has been Turner's effectiveness. Mack won't have to worry about being overwhelmed by a massive mauler. Turner, at 6-foot-5, 310, is built more like a left tackle than a right tackle or guard. Turner is a former Dolphins third-round draft pick who has started 49 games in seven years and played right guard last year for Green Bay.
Bears OLB Robert Quinn vs. Packers LT David Bakhtiari
Quinn has now gone 307 snaps and almost nine full games without a sack. It's not as if he is getting overwhelmed or vanishes. He's in position many times but doesn't quite get there in time to complete a play or even get a quarterback hit. He has only three of those. Perhaps something can change at some point for him but hoping for this against a former All-Pro and two-time Pro Bowl tackle like Bakhtiari is pointless. Bakhtiari has only been slowed by injuries in his career. This isn't one of those years. He has three penalties and hasn't allowed a sack this year. According to Pro Football Focus' grades, he is enjoying a spectacular season with an 89.5 overall grade. Quinn's quickness won't be a huge asset against Bakhtiari, who is not a slow tackle. However, Quinn has had some success in the past against this blocker. In 2018, he had 1 1/2 sacks against Bakhtiari while playing for the Dolphins and had another against him with the Rams two years earlier.
Bears TE Jimmy Graham vs. Packers SS Darnell Savage
An interesting matchup because of Graham's past as a Packer but beyond that Savage is a young, speedy safety who is better as a coverage player. Although he is suffering through a difficult season with a 113.3 passer rating against after posting a 71.1 rating as a rookie, he'll be more than a match speed-wise for Graham. And Graham is cominig off a game when he was a complete non-factor. He had no catches on two targets working against Vikings safety Harrison Smith and the Minnesota linebackers.
Bears RCB Jaylon Johnson vs. Packers WR Davante Adams
The Bears have enjoyed more success against Adams than many teams, as he has averaged 4.6 catches, 58.9 yards and half a TD against them every game. However, he is on a tear at the moment with an NFL-best 105.9 receiving yards per game. Adams working against a rookie who has been effective but is still inexperienced will be a mismatch, but Johnson has proven he can be a physical match even for bigger, fast receivers. The real problem for the Bears might be on the few downs when the Packers bring Adams inside and match him up on slot cornerback Buster Skrine. Adams' height, long build and leaping ability can turn this into a game of pitch and catch with Rodgers. But usually Adams won't line up on the inside.
Bears LT Charles Leno Jr. vs. Packers OLB Za'Darius Smith
Leno has been fairly dependable as a pass blocker with a 69.3 Pro Football Focus grade and two sacks allowed. Leno didn't handle Smith well in the first game last season as Smith made a sack. Leno is coming into this game with a toe injury suffered in Wednesday's practice, so while he'll play he won't be 100% and one of his bigger strengths is his technique and footwork. Smith has picked up the pace with two sacks in his last three games and has eight for the year after a standout 2019 season. A huge game against Atlanta in Week 4 padded his stats, though, as he had three sacks, four tackles for loss and five quarterback hits in that game. Overall, he's on pace slower than last year but not much.
Of Note
The Bears have scored only 49 points on offense in the last four games. They still have one touchdown in the third quarter this season ... The Bears are 18-25 all-time on Sunday Night Football, 2-3 under Nagy. ... Cordarrelle Patterson averages 30.5 yards a kick return, second best in the league. ... Linebacker Roquan Smith has the league lead in solo tackles (70) and tackles for loss (15). ... The Bears are No. 1 in red zone defense (44.1 percent TDs allowed) and No. 1 at stopping third downs (33.3%). Their defense has forced 11 fumbles, tied for second in the NFL. ... Aaron Rodgers is trying for his sixth game in a row with two TD passes and a 100 passer rating. On Sunday nights he h as a 106.3 passer rating with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions. ... Packers WR Davante Adams is looking for his fifth straight game at home against the Bears with a TD catch. ... Packers OLB Za'Darius Smith has five sacks in his last four home games.
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