Bears Fantasy Football Outlook Revolves Around Opportunity
When assessing talent for fantasy football purposes, there is one key to look at first before moving on to study past performance and projection.
This does not include key players at the top of their position boards like Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce or Christian McCaffrey. Players of this level are no-brainers.
If a fantasy owner messes up on those picks, they don't know what they're doing.
Rather, most fantasy success is built in later rounds. It's where shrewd owners with a plan separate themselves by finding impact players while others are selecting duds.
Beyond looking at obvious bigger numbers, there is one word owners have to study and that's opportunity.
Will a player have real opportunity to succeed in the role they're playing for their team, and if so it's someone to consider.
An example is at tight end for the Bears.
In real football, Eric Ebron is a worse choice for a team at tight end than Jimmy Graham and it has nothing to do with the fact Graham's catch totals over the years have dwarfed Ebron's.
It's because fantasy players don't concern themselves with things like dropped passes. What's the difference to them if Ebron led the NFL in dropped passes over the last two years? As long as he's out there on the field catching Ben Roethlisberger passes, he's going to have an opportunity to pile up numbers the fantasy player needs.
Sure, if a player drops enough passes he'll get no opportunity. The number of drops here is not enough to cause the Steelers or any other team to bench Ebron. Besides, they don't have enough quality players at the position to replace him. So he'll keep getting opportunities regardless.
The dropped passes hurt no one in fantasy ball, but in real life any single one of those drops might have been the difference between their team winning or losing each week. It's why a smart GM in real life takes Graham over Ebron.
Ebron loses teams games. Fantasy owners don't care. They want stats.
Here are the top three fantasy choices from the Bears and worst three fantasy choices for this season from the team, remembering to keep in mind the key word "opportunity."
Top 3 Choices
1. Allen Robinson
Robinson's 98-catch season will be difficult to duplicate but expect him to make greater impacts in overall yardage and in touchdowns in the past two seasons. He'll likely be chasing passes downfield more from an accurate passer and also have more opportunity to run with the catch because of passes hitting him in stride where he's not diving for a ball all the time. Robinson's 11 touchdowns in 248 targets over the first two Bears seasons were not indicative of what he can do with a better passer throwing his way. There is one other reason Robinson should be a better standard league player now than last year and that's the tight end spot. Robinson should get more touchdowns. The Bears drafted Cole Kmet and brought in Jimmy Graham and Demetrius Harris. It's going to be very difficult in the red zone to focus extra attention Robinson's way when the Bears can go with tight end threats in the 6-foot-7 range who can do damage. Robinson should flourish with less attention his way in the red zone.
2. Tarik Cohen
Cohen's opportunities might shrink this season, but it shouldn't decrease effectiveness. He is coming off a horrendous season by any standard and a bounce back is a sure thing. Averaging only 3.3 yards a rush and 5.8 yards a reception with only three touchdown catches and no rushing TDs, Cohen was a total dud for fantasy players last year. Only his career-high 79 receptions made him of value to PPR leagues. Cohen is a counter punch in the Bears offense. Without tight end Trey Burton last year, or the speed of Taylor Gabriel for much of the year, Cohen had to become a main weapon and faced much tougher defensive scrutiny. This should be peeled away in 2020 with other threats available at tight end, and especially if David Montgomery can become more involved in the passing game. Like with Robinson, it could also be a contract year if no contract extension is forthcoming before the season, which only tends to enhance production.
3. David Montgomery
It would be difficult for the offensive line to be worse than last year at blocking the run. Montgomery's average per rush should rise, as should his TD total. One other aspect of his play the Bears need to see is his receiving. They spoke about his ability to work in the passing game, then didn't use him. His 25 receptions on 35 targets neither indicated his ability to catch the ball nor the Bears' willingness to let him do it. The more times he has the ball in his hands, the more opportunities for TDs. Overall, Montgomery showed enough last year to anticipate Matt Nagy will find better ways to use him, even if it means running him more out of the dreaded I-formation.
Worst 3 Choices
1. Cole Kmet
Kmet might eventually develop into a tremendous tight end, but two factors weigh against an impact year from him. First, tight ends almost never have highly productive first seasons. The second is the veterans on the roster who will take away opportunities. There's that word again. Kmet will not get as many passes thrown his way even though Foles is well known for throwing to tight ends and backs.
2. Ted Ginn Jr.
The only reason anyone in fantasy ball would consider Ginn is if they're in a huge league and there is a receiver shortage. At 35 he has reached an age when receivers are almost all out of the league, let alone contributing. Although he increased his receptions last year from 17 to 30 with the Saints, his yardage average declined from 41.8 to 26.3 per catch. He made only two TD catches each of the last two years. On top of the age-related , he'll likely lose playing time to rookie Darnell Mooney. The Bears figure to be in more 12 personnel this year than in the past. It's partly why they brought in so many tight ends. And this can only take snaps from Ginn.
3. Anthony Miller
Last year Miller had obviously not benefited from an offseason of inactivity due to a shoulder surgery. Then he suffered another shoulder injury needlessly when the Bears decided he had to return a kick in a meaningless game after Cordarrelle Patterson suffered a concussion. Sure enough, another shoulder surgery ensued. At least he isn't falling behind in terms of timing with quarterbacks because there has been no offseason work. Still, it's likely he will need a few weeks to get back into physical peak after the surgery and it will set him back again. Later in the year Miller might make a bigger impact.
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