Flawed Falcons Defense Offers Bears Mismatch Opportunities
Future Bears opponents will sort through their film from two games and find plenty to pick at, starting Sunday with the Atlanta Falcons.
In particular the Falcons with Matt Ryan and a potent passing attack ranked second in the league should see the fourth quarter of the win by the Bears over the Giants and the final Lions drive against the Bears and decide there are plenty of possibilities to exploit.
The Bears might be 2-0 but two plays separate them from being 0-2. One was the dropped D'Andre Swift pass and the other was Eddie Jackson's pass defense on Golden Tate at the goal line on the final play of Sunday's win.
The problem with the Falcons is opponents have more than the final quarter or final minutes of a game to find faults to exploit. Atlanta's entire defense has been abysmal in two games at defending against the pass. They're 31st in the league both in yardage and passing yards allowed.
Only defensive tackle Grady Jarrett has been a beacon of hope for the Falcons, who have allowed a combined passer rating of 124.7 to Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson.
The Falcons offense in their passing game last week were so good they hurt their own defense, and the Bears can attest to how this happens.
Atlanta got out to a 29-10 halftime lead and 20-0 lead after one quarter, and the problem with this is the amount of soft pass coverage this pushes onto the defense. The Bears got caught in this Sunday with their 17-0 halftime lead.
They start playing soft and giving up the catch too often.
They gave away the middle of the field in coverage and Daniel Jones exploited this to alter momentum. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys did the same to the Falcons in roaring back to win 40-39. What Atlanta found out is its defense is fine when it's attacking, but when it tries to play conservatively, conventionally, there are problems.
Here are three matchups the Bears can exploit which became apparent in Atlanta's last game. It's a rarity because all are on the offensive side for the Bears.
WR Allen Robinson vs. CB Isaiah Oliver
Robinson is coming off one of his worst Bears performances with only three catches and two targets on interceptions, including one which he easily could have prevented. Did some of this have to do with distraction due to his contract negotiations? There's no way to know this but the timing allows for such speculation. Oliver is a get-well-quick invitation. His passer rating against when targeted is 120.3 and he's given up a touchdown pass. Last year he allowed five TD passes on the year and a 113 passer rating against. The Falcons had hoped to have Kendall Sheffield as an option to play the last two weeks but he had a foot injury. It's possible he'd return but what he'd provide isn't clear because he had a 48.9 Pro Football Focus grade over 444 coverage snaps last year as a rookie.
TEs Jimmy Graham/Cole Kmet vs. Falcons LB Deion Jones
The Falcons started each of the last two games in a three-safety package and left plenty of work underneath for their linebackers in coverage. Last week the Cowboys worked from the outside and used the tight end Dalton Schultz effectively as a counter punch because Atlanta worried more about the wide receivers. He had nine catches. If the Falcons match up any of their safeties on any of the Bears tight ends in coverage instead, they're giving away as much as 8 inches of height. Jones is no big problem size-wise either, as a 6-1, 222-pound linebacker.
WR Anthony Miller vs. DB Darqueze Dennard
Like Robinson, Miller will be attempting to regain the production level he enjoyed in Week 1 after a terrible second game. Miller was blanked and dropped a touchdown pass. Dennard has allowed plenty of catches in his coverage area. Sportradar calls it 14 receptions in 20 targets while Pro Football Focus says 16 in 20. The 16 catches represent the most catches allowed by anyone in the league according to PFF. Possibly the most alarming trend for Dennard is that he has missed on 23% of his tackle attempts, allowing for 73 yards after the catch. Miller should have plenty of opportunities out of the slot whether for the catch and run or to get deep in the secondary.
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