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It's All About Aaron Rodgers
On paper, at least for fantasy football owners this Bears game against the Green Bay Packers looks every bit the disaster as the Bears and Browns from earlier this season.
Bears and Packers games are usually no place for fantasy owners except those who have Aaron Rodgers and possibly Davante Adams. The Bears normally have one player who surfaces with numbers, like Darnell Mooney did last year in the regular-season finale with a career-high 11 receptions.
The Bears defense could normally have been depended upon for limiting the Packers in an area or two statistically but the end result is usually at least a few Rodgers touchdown passes. He averages 2.2 against them for his career.
Here are the players to sit and to play between the Bears and Packers, with a heavy emphasis on who to sit.
Play 'Em
Aaron Rodgers
The only time in the last seven Bears-Packers games when Aaron Rodgers failed to throw a TD pass was the game in 2018 when the Bears clinched the division title. He has 17 TD passes against them in the last seven games. It's a new defensive coordinator facing Rodgers but definitely similar to 2015-2018. What Rodgers does that's so frustrating to the Bears is run the short passing game to precision. When they go to the quick passes on three steps or five steps, it's timing and the pass rush can't get to him. Many teams can't keep doing this because eventually they're in a long down and distance and the Bears truly are frightening then. This is why they have so many sacks (18) without being one of the best teams in overall pressure. Everyone tries doing to them what Green Bay does and it can work for a while but only Rodgers and also Matthew Stafford seem to be able to operate that three-step and five-step game well enough to keep it going and not need to go to the seven-step drops.
Davante Adams
He has to be played because of the 45 targets he's had in the Packers' last three games. Adams doesn't necessarily have tremendous career numbers against the Bears but has figured out how to hurt them now as he has averaged 5.8 catches for 77.6 yards and has made five TD catches in the last seven games. With Kyle Fuller gone, he's attacking largely an experienced group.
Randall Cobb
Cobb has always hurt the Bears and while his skills have been diminished somewhat, there's no reason to think he will stop now considering slot cornerback Duke Shelley is there to be picked on and other teams have done it to the tune of a 99.8 passer rating against and 78.3% completions allowed.
Darnell Mooney
Someone has to catch Bears passes so it figures to be Mooney, who leads the team with 22 catches. Allen Robinson has an ankle injury and Mooney made a lot of catches for very little yardage against the Packers last year. His career high in receptions is 11, in the regular-season finale against Green Bay last year. He had 14 catches for 127 yards in two games last year, many of which came behind the line of scrimmage or within a yard or two of it.
Sit 'Em
QB Justin Fields
Still he hasn't proven he can put up fantasy numbers in any way, with one TD pass only. His one game against Detroit with a deep passing attack is an indication he could do it, but doing it against Green Bay will be a totally different challenge.
WR Allen Robinson II
The ankle injury he had was severe enough to keep him off the field for two practice days and he only had 11 catches in the four games when Fields was playing extensively or starting. This combination has yet to click.
RB Khalil Herbert
Some people might have rushed to the waiver wire to pick him up once word of the COVID-19 case for Damien Williams came out. Wrong move. Herbert had one good half so far but Green Bay's run defense is far more stout than Las Vegas' last week. Kenny Clark usually renders the Bears runners useless from the start.
RB Aaron Jones
This one's a judgment call. The Packers haven't run the ball effectively overall, although they did get the yardage totals up above 100 last week for the first time after struggling early. Even when the yardage came easier against Cincinnati, it was basically just two runs and plenty of inconsistent play by the Packers running attack that did it. They could be trying to run against Akiem Hicks and Eddie Goldman together, too. Before the injuries and opt-out problems started for the two, they helped hold Green Bay to 46 yards in the 2019 season opener.
TE Robert Tonyan
Maybe Tonyan needs to see the Bears to get going because he has been a non-factor this year after a brilliant season in 2020 but played well against them last year. He has four catches for 22 yards over the last three Packer games and only nine receptions on the year.
The Bears actually have done a fair job of limiting tight ends this year. Even T.J. Hockenson and Darren Waller didn't post big days.
Defense
The Packers defense would be the play here. Even if Green Bay was playing mediocre on defense they would be a defense to use in a standard league as they're sixth in the league and solid against both the run and pass. Their injury problems at cornerback are not crippling in this game because Fields hasn't consistently beaten a pass defense yet.
If there is an offense never to play the Bears defense against, this is it. After giving up 76 points to the Packers last year, they need to prove this group can play like it did against Rodgers under Vic Fangio.
In an IDP League, the big play is Green Bay safety Adrian Amos. He always finds ways to hurt his former team. Khalil Mack wouldn't be a player as a choice. Since he shredded Green Bay in 2018, he has only one sack against them.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
