Cashing in on the Bears and Texans
The Week 1 Bears win over San Francisco showed what Justin Fields could do when confronted with circumstances on a level, yet wet playing field.
The level playing field was San Francisco's second-year quarterback, Trey Lance.
The Week 2 loss at Green Bay showed what Fields could do against a superior defense on the road, when that defense also had an efficient offense with a Hall of Fame quarterback on its side.
What the Bears and Fields face Sunday is much closer to what they saw in Week 1, except instead of facing a playoff caliber opponent from San Francisco they are up against an opponent that has blown a 17-point lead to a Colts team that got shut out by Jacksonville and also lost to Denver when Nathaniel Hackett couldn't make enough dumb decisions.
Lovie Smith's defenses play a style that can burn young, mobile passers who don't rely on their playmakers.
After two weeks of not getting the ball to his playmakers, Fields is due to find them.
Here are the top fantasy plays and bets from Sunday's game at Soldier Field between the Bears and Texans, where the playing surface is supposed to be dry this time but no one can say exactly how the field will be after the monsoon two weeks ago.
Fantasy Forecast
Play 'Em
1. Bears RB David Montgomery
There was a great deal made of how the Bears threw only 11 times last week but what many don't realize is Montgomery had his first big game this year on only 15 carries. A player with 122 yards usually has more than 15 rushing attempts. Although the Lovie Smith defense can trap ball carriers in the backfield with TFLs, it's also prone to being gashed and a start-and-stop runner can do this just as well as a one-cut runner if someone on the defense is out of their gap of responsibility. A revamped Bears offensive line will do enough to get Montgomery started in this one, but it might take Justin Fields passing it a bit to open things up against a Texans defense that will be looking more to stop the run.
2. Bears QB Justin Fields
With only 28 passes so far, it's difficult to gauge his play much, and fantasy players haven't derived much from him. He hasn't effectively run much, either. Look for both to happen this week as he extends plays with his feet, gets the Texans pass defense out of their zone and into less effective man-to-man situations and then completes bigger throws while also running.
3. Texans RB Dameon Pierce
The Bears are not as ineffective defending the run as they looked trying to stop two of the best running teams in the NFL. No one is putting the Texans and Pierce up at this level. However, running the ball is what Houston will try after those two poor showings against the run by the Bears, so Pierce will get his attempts and maybe some yards early, until the tide turns.
4. Bears WR Darnell Mooney
He'll be found. A player who had 142 receptions in his first two years doesn't simply drop off the face of the map. Expect the Bears to go to him early and on shorter throws as they try to get Fields into a rhythm and Mooney into the action for the first time this season. There should be no great mystery about what defenses the Texans will be in because they use the same shell coverage the Bears do.
At Your Own Risk
5. Texans WR Brandin Cooks
It's safet to say Davis Mills will look for Cooks extensively. He did it 22 times in the first two games, but a team with a good pass rush was able to prevent this last week. Cooks caught only 4-of-10 targets. The Bears' injury issues in the secondary could make Cooks more available but will Mills have time to find him with Robert Quinn, Trevis Gipson and Dominique Robinson bearing down?
6. Bears TE Cole Kmet
There is more talk of getting Kmet involved but they have already, just not as a receiver. Kmet is not a consistent blocker but can do it very well at times. They'll focus him more to pass catching this week and it's possible he'll catch some throws instead of dropping one like he did in the last game. It's never safe to count on big games from a tight end unless they're in a prodigious passing offense or the player is well established. Kmet has neither working on his side.
6. Texans WR Nico Collins
There are factors here where Collins has a chance for a great game but other factors working against him, like past performance. He hasn't had many standout performances. His career best is five catches and 69 yards last year against Seattle against soft coverage because the Seahawks were leading big in a 33-13 win and playing off the receivers. However, last week's four-catch, 58-yard effort against Seattle represented a drastic improvement over what he'd been doing dating back to Week 15 of last season. The problem was, Collins needed nine targets to get those four receptions and the consistency isn't there to make him a player to count on in fantasy ball.
Sit 'Em
8. Texans QB Davis Mills
Mills can be an effective pocket passer provided the pocket isn't collapsing. Count on it to collapse this week. The Texans tackles will face their biggest challenge yet from Bears edge rushers, and they failed at a pretty good test last week. Mills could be forced to move more than he likes and do what isn't natural.
Defense
- Neither the Bears nor Texans on defense rate as strong enough plays to be used unless there is early word Roquan Smith and Jaylon Johnson will play. Then the Bears would be a possible play. Houston's defense has been miserable at everything except allowing touchdowns in the red zone. They can't stop the run or the pass, ranking in the bottom six league-wide in both categories. Without Johnson and Smith, no one can be sure what to expect from the Bears defense.
- Two players worth a look in IDP leagues are Bears safety Eddie Jackson and Texans safety Jalen Pitre. In this game with two young, inexact passers, the overthrow and tipped balls can wind up as interceptions. Safeties tend to be the beneficiaries of those wild throws.
Best Bears Bets
The Spread and Total
The Line: Bears by 2 1/2 (Over/under 39 1/2)
BearDigest Record: 1-1 straight up, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 against the total.
BearDigest Pick: Bears 19, Texans 16
Neither team has shown enough offensive consistency for a big touchdown day, but Fields can do enough athletically to elevate the Bears and burn a more predictable Texans defense.
Props to Consider
- Under on the Davis Mills TD passes. Latest SI.com Sports Book call was 1 1/2. The only way Mills gets more than one is if the Bears get way ahead and are playing soft. Even if Jaylon Johnson and Roquan Smith don't play, it's the scheme the Bears rely on and they'll stick closer to its design in that case.
- Over on the Justin Fields TD passes. Latest line was one-half. He had two TD passes against a good defense in the opener. The Bears gave up on the pass in the second half last week to try for more rushing and capitalize on the way Green Bay's edges rushed up the field immediately to prevent bootlegs and apply outside pocket pressure. It was too inviting to run to tackle and outside when the Packers edges took themselves out of plays. This won't happen again because Houston's best edge is 34-year-old geezer Jerry Hughes. They'll stay home out of necessity. Fields will be able to bootleg and have time to throw.
- Over on the David Montgomery Rushing Figure. It was up to 69 1/2 on Saturday morning, and rising. The Texans' 30th-ranked run defense is part of the reason. Also, possible Bears line changes could improve their running game with Lucas Patrick at center and Teven Jenkins playing all game at guard.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
