How Ryan Pace's Offseason Moves Look for Bears Now
Every move Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Pace made in the offseason received the kind of scrutiny normally given politicians in election years.
Considering his contract ends after 2021, it's understandable.
The decision to trade for Nick Foles, to sign Jimmy Graham, to cut Leonard Floyd and sign Robert Quinn all have been thoroughly dragged through the washer.
Pro Football Focus refers to the Bears as being lucky at 4-1. The dropped D'Andre Swift touchdown in Week 1 was obviously the biggest of these breaks, but they've benefited from numerous injuries to key opposing players as well.
There is luck involved to anything any NFL team does. As John Milton wrote and Branch Rickey repeated, luck is the residue of design.
They've had some bad luck, as well. Without a few officials' calls, Khalil Mack would be leading the NFL in sacks and the Bears would also have a few more turnovers forced. If Mack catches a deflected pass right in his hands early in the game with the Colts, it takes on an entirely different look.
Here are the biggest moves Pace made in the offseason and how they've panned out.
Trading for Nick Foles over signing a free agent
The trade for Nick Foles looks good at the moment after he led a comeback win and split two games with stronger opponents, yet the Bears could have kept their fourth-round pick and signed either Andy Dalton or Cam Newton
Foles didn't even win the starting job, but this would appear to be entirely on Matt Nagy and not Pace.
"We shared each other's thoughts," Pace said as the regular season was about to begin. "I would listen. I would be a sounding board. But this is strictly his decision. I think with Matt, kind of like how we do the draft, it's very collaborative. You take a lot of opinions. But at the end of the day, it's his call and he made that call."
So getting the eventual starter for a fourth-round pick is a good trade-off.
Anyone who thought Dalton was a better choice than Foles didn't see Super Bowl LII, the Eagles' playoff game with the Bears in 2018 and ignored Dalton's winless postseason record.
However, signing Newton might have worked out better. It's difficult to ascertain right now because Newton had played only three games going into this weekend, but that's all Foles had played.
The Bears would have had to be more patient to sign Newton because of the COVID-19 situation on player visits and injuries he's had the past few years. However, it appears to be working out for New England.
Newton had two touchdown throws and two interceptions, which isn't great. However, he's getting the ball downfield at 7.8 yards an attempt while the Bears two QBs haven't even approached 7.0. This could reflect more the design of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniel in New England, who doesn't have an attack so focused on horizontal football as Matt Nagy's Andy Reid-style attack.
What is undisputable is Newton would have been much cheaper than Foles at $1.1 million for this year, and would have allowed the Bears to use extra cap money to get Allen Robinson signed as well as possibly have a better alternative at nose tackle once Eddie Goldman opted out. They might have been able to afford a better guard option now, too, after James Daniels' injury.
It's often said on social media they wish they had Mitchell Trubisky's legs on Nick Foles' body, or something of this nature, as they see the immobility of the current Bears QB.
Newton has averaged almost 50 yards a game rushing, which would have been of great benefit for a team struggling to get rushing yards.
Cutting Leonard Floyd, signing Robert Quinn
This one looks far worse so far than the quarterback choice. Quinn has had an impact in one of the first five games. He has one sack and one quarterback hit.
Floyd for the Rams has two sacks and five quarterback hits. The Bears gave up their edge versatility and some pressure options in their scheme by getting rid of Floyd and hoped for more sacks and pressure overall from Quinn. They haven't had it.
There's still a ways to go, but so far this looks like a lost move. They structured the deal so they were able to count $7 million less against the cap than they would have had to pay Floyd.
What's rather uncomfortable for Pace is his two backups at edge rusher have better stats than Quinn does. Barkevious Mingo has one sack, two quarterback hits, a tackle for loss and 10 tackles, while James Vaughters has 10 tackles, two for loss, a quarterback hit and a sack.
Depending on Germain Ifedi at right guard
This has worked out fairly well. Ifedi has committed only one penalty as a guard, and in Seattle as a tackle he had been a penalty machine. The Bears apparently did their research well on Ifedi's skills as a guard.
Pro Football Focus has Ifedi's grade for five games as higher than any of the three interior offensive linemen on the team, and with one sack allowed.
For about $1 million, it's difficult to say they could have been better off making another move.
Signing Tashaun Gipson over other options
They could have signed Ha Ha Clinton-Dix because he got only $775,000 more to go to Dallas than he made in Chicago according to Spotrac.com. Then Dallas saw his abililties and cut him. He's out of football.
A wave of fans on social media and Bears running back Cordarrelle Patterson urged Pace to sign Tony Jefferson, who is coming off a torn ACL. Jefferson is not in football.
Gipson, on the other hand, has been one of the surest tacklers on defense. He has missed only one tackle according to Sportradar. His interception sealed the win over Atlanta. He's been part of the NFL's best red-zone defense and safeties play key roles in this statistic.
This definitely is a winning move to date.
Cutting Prince Amukamara, drafting Jaylon Johnson
They saved about $4.5 million with this move when all is said and done, and Amukamara was cut by the Raiders. He just caught on with the Cardinals if he passes the physical.
Meanwhile, Johnson after two weeks had the third-highest Pro Football Focus grade among all NFL cornerbacks (80.3), before it plummeted. He's had three straight so-so games, but is allowing only 44.7% completions when targeted according to Sportradar, which is an outstanding number. His passer rating against is 76.2 and he has given up one touchdown. He deflected the game-ending pass against Detroit. Johnson also has missed only two of his 18 tackle attempts.
With a high upside and effective play now, Johnson's selection is a big Pace win.
Signing Danny Trevathan or Nick Kwiatkoski
Trevathan's play in the first four games might make some conclude this was a huge mistake.
Kwiatkoski hasn't exactly lit it up in Vegas. He has missed half the games with a pectoral injury. Remember, availability is the best ability. And while Trevathan often has been injured in the past, it also was true of Kwiatkoski with the Bears. And he's been injured again with the Raiders.
No doubt Trevathan hasn't responded without nose tackle Eddie Goldman in the front occupying blockers. There's no reason to think Kwiatkoski could have done it, either. Goldman's absence is huge.
Trevathan's pass defense has been as poor as it's ever been, and Kwiatkoski never has been a good pass defender.
No one side looks like the big winner here.
You wonder, though, if the Bears knew Goldman was opting out whether they might have chosen to keep Kwiatkoski instead.
Signing Jimmy Graham over Eric Ebron
No signing the Bears made drew more criticism than Graham's, and to date they're better able to stuff this one back in the faces of critics than other move except possibly cornerback.
Graham has four touchdown catches and has displayed a knack for getting open in the red zone as the Bears predicted. Four TD catches is twice the combined total of all six Bears tight ends who caught passes in 2019. He has 17 catches in five games.
Ebron has averaged fewer catches than Graham over his first three games, although he could push that up this week. He has just one TD catch and his average catches per game is the second lowest total since his rookie season.
Graham even got complimented early for his blocking by coaches, although all the tight ends' blocking seems to have dropped off the last two games.
No one has ever complimented Ebron's blocking. He's a wide receiver in tight end clothing.
Graham's not going to have a long Bears career but he has made the most of the first five efforts.
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