How Bears Stack Up Against NFC North Champ Packers
A year ago it wasn't the case, but the Bears now must face facts.
The Green Bay Packers own the NFC North and have a better team. Denial gets the Bears nowhere.
In fact, the rest of the NFC North has to realize it, as well.
Green Bay went unbeaten in NFC North games. The Bears were 4-2, Minnesota 2-4 and Detroit was winless.
The Packers saw the Bears win the division last year and did something about it by bringing in defensive help and a new coach. Now the other NFC North teams have to respond, including the Bears.
Here's how the Bears stack up against the Packers, where they own edges and where they need to get better, whether it's even possible in one offseason.
Bears Edges
Although Kenny Clark has made tremendous strides the last two years to become a force, the Bears have the numbers advantage along the defensive line. Akeim Hicks is still young enough to be a dominant force when his elbow injury completely heals and Eddie Goldman is only slightly less effective at the nose. He's a Pro Bowl alternate. A big surprise as a rookie, Bilal Nichols took a step back in his second year largely due to a broken hand and it's effect early, and can be expected at a higher level again. The Bears also have a line coach in Jay Rodgers who they acknowledge as being able to work wonders at developing talent. Nick Williams is one of those, as was Roy Robertson-Harris.
The Bears have a sizable edge at inside linebacker, or rather, they had a sizable advantage. With both Nick Kwiatkoski and Danny Trevathan free agents, and Kevin Pierre-Louis out of contract as well, it's almost impossible to stack the Bears up against the Packers at this position because they can't be sure who will be back.
What is certain is when a torn pectoral muscle heals, Roquan Smith is head and shoulders above any Packers inside linebacker. A personal issue he had which caused a missed game last season aside, Smith has been ascending. Over the course of the final three games before his injury, he reached a new plateau in development. Destructive, ferocious and violent were terms the coaching staff began using in describing him. B.J. Goodson was a Giants castoff who showed improvement and Blake Martinez makes a lot of tackles but is deficient as a coverage linebacker. Both were third-day draft choices, nearly comparable to Kwiatkoski and not at the level of Trevathan, let alone Smith.
Bears return men Tarik Cohen and Cordarrelle Patterson place them light years ahead of Green Bay. The Packers think they found something in Tyler Ervin but he had only six kick returns and had a strong 9.6-yard average on punt returns, but it was for only 11 returns. More returns drive down the average. Patterson made All-Pro and the Pro Bowl while Cohen averaged 9.2 yards on 33 returns, his lowest return average in three seasons coming off a Pro Bowl year.
The Bears also have a better punter in Pat O'Donnell. He's a proven pro who had only one season average-wise worse than J.K. Scott did this year. O'Donnell also has to punt in worse wind conditions than Scott, who is in just his second year. And O'Donnell's average might be a great deal higher if the Bears didn't use him so often.
Even Steven
A year ago it would have been unthinkable to put the Packers on even footing at outside linebacker or in the secondary with the Bears. It's true.
They've achieved this at edge rusher in one season by bringing in Za'Darius and Preston Smith in free agency. While it might not take double- or triple-teaming to handle the Smiths like it does with Khalil Mack, there are two Smiths. The Bears have only one outside pass rusher. They do a fantastic job of telling people Leonard Floyd is doing a good job. It doesn't show up in production, and that's what counts. The Bears have a backup there in Aaron Lynch who repeatedly is offside and doesn't do much for them in terms of sacks, although he is above average for backup edges at snuffing out the run. The Bears can't regain their "edge edge" on the Packers unless they get Mack real help.
The Bears slipped only slightly in the secondary this year but the Packers revamped theirs and had immediate results. Jaire Alexander is only in his second year, Kevin King is in his third year and first as a full-time starter and Darnell Savage is a rookie. Adrian Amos, of course, was taken from the Bears. The longer a secondary plays, the better communication gets and usually they'll play better the next year. So Green Bay can look forward to effective pass coverage for years to come. Although the Bears had a season similar in—the Bears allowed an 85.2 passer rating and the Packers 81.1—issues of free agency and the salary cap are threatening to eat away at Chicago's secondary. They could use an infusion of real cornerback talent from the second day of the draft rather than counting on sixth-rounders, undrafted free agents or castoffs. This matchup looks even only if the Bears can retain their current grouping.
Wide receiver isn't a place where the Bears have stood on even footing with the Packers in the past, but improvements they made before 2018 and the Packers' reliance on young receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison and Allen Lazard squared this off. Anthony Miller has almost as many receptions in two years as Allison in four years, and more than Valdes-Scantling, who has played the same number of seasons. Allen Robinson and Davante Adams is close to a wash, with Adams getting a slight edge based on his ability to be more of a deep threat. However, that might be due more who throws the passes for the Bears. The Bears would own a slight edge with a healthy Taylor Gabriel, but his career seems in jeopardy after a series of concussions.
Bears Deficits
The Bears like to think they have their kicking problem solves, but Eddy Pineiro made only one kick longer than 36 yards in his run of 11 straight to close the season. The jury is still out. Green Bay's Mason Crosby is proven and, although 35 years old, still consistent in harsh kicking conditions.
Before the season the Bears looked like a solid offensive front. After they all got paid, the entire group fell to the back of the NFL. Green Bay's biggest problem on the O-line has been injuries over the last few years, and they were healthier this year. It showed up in a better running game and more time for Aaron Rodgers to throw. At tackle, it's not even close with Green Bay owning a huge edge. Only at center are the Bears even or ahead of the Packers, and Cody Whitehair shouldn't even be playing the position. His natural position is supposed to be guard.
The Bears have no tight ends. They would be better off cutting all of them and starting from scratch. They're all either injured, ineffective or both. Green Bay's Jimmy Graham and Marcedes Lewis might have wrinkles and gray hair but both know how to play the position and are effective enough.
The day when the Bears face a deficit at running back to the Packers has always seemed as likely as the Packers facing a quarterback deficit to the Bears.
It's no longer the case.
Aaron Jones is a proven back who breaks tackles and Jamaal Williams is a capable backup. Both are versatile enough for the offensive approach and use their effective blockers well.
Bears running back David Montgomery certainly displayed a knack for breaking tackles, and because of his line he had to break a lot of them. Tarik Cohen was used more as a wide receiver than a running back and Cordarrelle Patterson wasn't used for much besides returns. The Bears need relief help for Montgomery regardless of how they stack up against the Packers' backs.
Finally, the greatest deficit the Bears always face against the Packers is still there. Whether it's Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre before him, the Bears can never match up at quarterback.
Rodgers is in his mid-30s and the Bears can expect he'll follow the trend of Tom Brady and Drew Brees, and go on playing for years to come.
Their Bears' answer is Mitchell Trubisky, who is not the MVP. Trubisky has to learn rudimentary things like reading defenses and proper footwork while Rodgers stopped worrying about such basics by his fifth season.
That's the bad news for the Bears.
The worse news is their window of opportunity against Rodgers came in 2019. He didn't know the offense like had had in the past, but a full season working in it has solved this.
The Bears were worse in situational football, in complementary football and in almost every of the game than the Packers last year and it's only going to get better by addressing their talent deficits.
Twitter@BearsOnMaven
