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Justin Fields Needs Help of All Kinds
One of the silliest notions to come from NFL.com analysis in this run up to the draft was produced by highly respected Daniel Jeremiah regarding the Bears.
He spoke with the Chicago Tribune's Dan Wiederer and said the Bears need to lean heavily to the offensive side in this draft in order to give Justin Fields what he needs to prove himself, because that's what this season is all about—letting Fields prove himself.
Fields would be the first to tell anyone it's not about him. It's about putting together the best possible team, and defense is going to need to be addressed when you just gave up the most points in the National Football League for the first time in 103 years of football.
Fields proving himself is part of this season, but he's not doing it and the Bears aren't going to be better now or long term unless they improve the defense.
"I know you have a defensive head coach, but this should be an offensive-heavy draft," Jeremiah said. "Even though the defense is where it is, I want to give (Fields) every opportunity to be successful and give yourself every opportunity to evaluate him as you go into a year next year where you have some extra picks and it looks—at least ahead of time—like it's (2024) a good quarterback year. I think they have to know what they have in Fields at the end of next season."
They do need to know. This is true. But they're not going to know more by drafting mostly offense and ignoring defense.
Rookie Impact Usually Marginal
There's only so much offensive help they're going to derive from this draft for Fields on offense. Very few rookies make big immediate impacts. Eventually they do, but not right away. It's the way the NFL works.
They've already made most of the moves on offense that will impact Fields directly as he proves himself. What they need to do is fix the side of the ball that indirectly affects Fields and can also help him win games, thereby letting him prove himself. A 5-20 record as starter doesn't say much for him
"To me, it's all the offensive line," Jeremiah said to Wiederer. "I just go back to this being the year of Fields, sink or swim. Knowing exactly what you have with him. That's why, if you told me they'd have the 32nd-ranked defense in the league next year but they knew whether or not Fields was the guy, I think it would be a successful year."
If they have the 32nd-ranked defense next year, they won't know Fields can be a success. He's not going to have the ball enough to do anything and his offense isn't going to get into a rhythm and improve if their defense is a sieve again.
The team's not benefiting from this and neither would Fields.
They're not going to draft five new offensive line starters. They only need to replace two starters at the most. They will be very fortunate to even do this.
And exactly how much help does he think rookie offensive linemen are going to provide, anyway? If you're drafting offensive players aiming only to help Fields prove himself in 2023, you've lost the battle already and might as well just cut him now.
Of all the players on offense drafted in the NFL on the offensive line last year, only 14 at all line positions were full-time starters. Only six earned grades in the top half of the league at their positions, according to Pro Football Focus' grading system.
It's just how it works in the league for rookie offensive linemen. These numbers are entirely common. Offensive line is a tough place to play for a rookie, and Braxton Jones' success last year as a starter was highly unusual.
As for wide receiver, they've already addressed it. Rookie wide receivers probably have even less chance of making a big immediate impact in 2023 than offensive linemen. Of all the wide receivers drafted in the league last year, only nine caught more than 35 passes.
If you're not averaging more than two catches a game, you're not doing a whole heck of a lot to help your quarterback prove himself. Someone else on the receiver corps can do that just as well.
Sure, a few rookies could deliver or make a play or two here or there. But the percentages obviously are against it. Even successful ones aren't going to make an impact large enough on this receiver corps with DJ Moore, Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney already ahead of them.
It would take a rookie receiver a while just to get established as a starter let alone make a huge impact. Maybe Jaxon Smith-Njigba could do it, but if they drafted him then where's the offensive line help Jeremiah suggested they need?
This is supposed to be a below-average draft crop, according to all accounts. So chances are even less likely of getting offensive rookies who star right away.
A Defense Would Really Help Fields
The only position on offense besides a starting right tackle that could immediately help Fields prove himself in 2023 is running back.
And the specific player is Bijan Robinson. They're most likely not drafting him.
So expecting a bunch of rookie draft picks on offense to come in for 2023 and be key in getting Fields a chance to prove himself is a misguided notion.
What isn't silly is the idea that defensive players can help Fields prove himself.
- 1. They can get the football back for him through turnovers or forcing punts and give him more passes, more runs.
- 2. They can keep the Bears in games so Fields has a chance to win them at the end. This was a huge problem last year.
When the Bears lost 10 straight games to end last season, they gave up an average of 33.1 points. When was the last time the Bears had an offense that could offset this kind of disadvantage? Maybe in the 1940s.
The Eagles and Chiefs were in the Super Bowl and neither averaged 30 points, so that pretty much sums up the burden Fields and the offense carried last year.
The best the Bears defnese did during that losing streak was give up 25 to Philadelphia. It wasn't Fields failing. His stats gradually improved as the season went on. The defense kept failing him.
Fields wasn't out there on defense. It was a poor defense with poor, low-grade players who were thrown together in a cut-rate free agency plan because they had no cap money. It was a defense that put too much pressure on Fields and made it tougher for him to deliver wins at games' ends.
There were a few situations working the other way in the year, but preventing points is what the defense does to help the offense and they failed last year in every way possible. They didn't get sacks, didn't get off the field enough and they gave up points.
So the idea that they need to draft offense heavily to help Fields is short-sighted at best. They do have offensive needs but they need defense more.
They need to take best players available at need positions on both sides of the ball, or if none are there when they pick, then trade down for extra picks. It's pretty simple. It's how successful drafts always work.
Teams don't draft only to help one player.
Helping Justin Fields prove himself is only a part of what 2023 is about. And it's not what this draft is about.
This draft is about making the entire Bears roster better now and in the future.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
