Lessons and Possibilities for Bears
Just like last week in the wild-card round to the playoffs, the divisional playoffs taught the Bears something about what they need to do or how far away they are from attaining postseason status.
For the Bears to even think of the playoffs could sound absurd to anyone looking at a 3-14 team with the first pick in the draft, and a roster with only 12 players who were drafted on Day 1 or Day 2.
Such skepticism is valid and also unfounded. The Bears really could make a rapid turnaround and here's proof as well as lessons showing the way.
1. Turnarounds Happen Overnight
In the 2020 NFL season, the Philadelphia Eagles fired coach Doug Pederson after a 4-12 season. They lost seven of their last eight. Now they're playing to go to the Super Bowl.
In 2020, the Cincinnati Bengals were 4-12 one season after going 2-14 and now they're playing for the chance to make the Super Bowl for the second straight year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars had the first pick in the draft two straight years and in 2022 were 3-14. They had only 53% of the amount the Bears have available in salary cap space for 2023 and spent enough to bring in seven key free agent players to get to the divisional round of the playoffs this year.
It's not a miracle turnaround. It's a turnaround like happens every year in the NFL.
2. The Running Game's Importance
It's not like the clock has been turned back to the 1960s but the importance of the running game was obvious on Sunday as the two offensive lines most able to dominate and run the ball were the winners. This happened in Saturday's Eagles win, as well.
The 49ers were eighth in rushing and dominated on the ground Sunday against Dallas. They were second in rushing in 2019 when they went to the Super Bowl. On Sunday, they had only 27 yards rushing at halftime and were outgained on the ground by the Cowboys, who had 55 yards rushing. They put the ball in their backs' hands and behind their line in the second half and outrushed Dallas 86 yards to 21 then.
The Bengals aren't known as a particularly powerful running team but have the capability to run and they outrushed Buffalo 172 yards to 63. Their offensive line overwhelmed Buffalo's defense.
Jacksonville came within eight points of being in the AFC Championship Game and ran for 144 yards against Kansas City, averaging 7.6 yards per carry as they managed to stay in the game thanks largely to their ability to keep the Chiefs off balance. The Chiefs, for all their firepower, had only 195 yards passing from Patrick Mahomes. They ran for 144 yards, as well.
The Eagles were fifth in rushing this season. They ran for 268 yards on the Giants Saturday. They finished first in the league in rushing last year.
The Bears led the league in rushing this year.
3. Shanahan Offense and Wide Zone
Two of the teams in the final four this year are Shanahan style attacks -- the 49ers and Cincinnati. They run wide zone blocking
Last year three of the final four teams ran variations of the Shanahan style attacks -- the 49ers, Rams and Bengals.
The Bears run the wide zone, the basis for Shanahan's attack.
4. Quarterback and Experience
Patrick Mahomes is the old pro of the final four and has been the starter since 2018, but did have one start in a meaningless season finale in 2017. Joe Burrow has been starting since 2020. Jalen Hurts has been starting for two seasons and four games. Brock Purdy has been starting since Dec. 11.
Justin Fields has two seasons of starting experience, 25 starts.
5. Quarterback Mobility
All of the quarterbacks in the final four are mobile enough to get out of the pocket or to move within it and find receivers. They're not classic pocket passers. Only Jalen Hurts would qualify as a running quarterback from this group, though. Patrick Mahomes can definitely run but has averaged over four rushes a game only once. On Saturday when the Eagles piled up 268 yards, they had only 32 from Hurts.
Fields doesn't run to pass yet. He's running to run far too much and needs to increase his attempts to buy time with his legs to pass and cut back on the amount of rushing attempts.
It's true Hurts ran more times than Fields did this year but for far fewer yards.
However, he also learned to move and use his running to throw as he was able to pass for 1,459 more yards passing than Fields.
The path is obvious for Fields. He needs to improve as a passer, cut back on the running to run and increase the running to pass.
6. Defense Still Matters
No matter how much the experts call the NFL an offensive league now, when it comes to elite levels of ball defense is critical. The losing teams in the divisional round averaged 12.25 points a game.
The lesson: Come prepared to stop someone.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
