Matchups Favoring Bears Against Packers
Every season in the NFL is an entity unto itself.
Most coaches agree with this and say it often. How do the Rams go from dominant to competing for the top draft pick? How does Green Bay collapse when everyone in Wisconsin was talking about home-field advantage for the playoff before training camp even started?
A few key injuries, a player who ages out, or most often a key player who just doesn't play up to standards achieved in other seasons can mean a drastically different course for a team on one side of the ball or other.
The Packers have had their problems in putting together a 4-8 season, and definitely losing their offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach made a difference. The lack of a receiver like Davante Adams is one area of blame on the field.
Anyone pointing only at their receiver situation hasn't been paying attention.
The Packers defense had been dominant. In fact, they had been labeled by many as the league's best in preseason.
Their run defense was fairly stout the last two years and finished 11th and 13th, but this year they are next to last. Some players have simply not performed and it is here where the Bears have matchup advantages Sunday against some players who have been problems for them in the past.
Bears G Teven Jenkins vs. Packers DT Kenny Clark
Clark has always been a huge problem to the Bears in past seasons but he is going through a bad season and it started early. He didn't exactly shine in the first Bears-Packers game in Week 2. There's no other way to describe it. His numbers appear decent on the surface with three sacks and six QB hits. The two-time Pro Bowler, however, is ranked 90th against the run out of 107 interior defensive players graded by Pro Football Focus. It's part of the reason the Packers are 31st against the run and a defensive tackle can't be so porous. Clark had only an assist and a quarterback hit in the first Bears-Packers game. Jenkins has been the third-best run blocker at guard in the NFL, according to PFF. He is the fourth-best guard overall. His refusal to let up until the echo of the whistle leads to some incredibly devastating pancake blocks. Jenkins could still improve as a pass blocker but when healthy it's apparent he is their future at guard.
Bears TE Cole Kmet vs. Packers S Adrian Amos
Amos, the former Bears safety, has been outstanding with the Packers but is going through easily his worst season. Amos has a 132.3 passer rating against when targeted, according to Sportradar. It's the worst rating-against of his career and he has allowed three touchdown catches. He also has allowed a career-worst 77.4% completions. The 6-foot, 214-pound safety could be in coverage often against Bears tight end Cole Kmet, who is 6-6, 260 and has a 6-inch height and 46-pound edge. Kmet might be used more downfield as a result of Darnell Mooney's season-ending injury. He is easily the receiver Justin Fields has the best rapport with, and if it's Trevor Siemian playing he is a very easy target to find. Kmet leads the Bears with five TD catches. He had a very slow start with two catches after three weeks but now has 29 receptions for 336 yards. His yards per target is a career high of 7.8 and he is averaging a career-best 11.6 yards per catch.
Bears RB David Montgomery vs. Packers LB Quay Walker
The Packers rookie is have an eye-opening season against the run. PFF has graded him 79th out of 83 linebackers at defending the run, and he's 69th of 83 overall. He came out of Georgia as the 22nd pick overall this year and there seems little doubt he'll eventually be a force, but the league is often unkind to rookies. Bears running back David Montgomery showed the team again last week why he should be a priority for a paycheck after this season with his ability to break tackles and move within a pile. He has 17 broken tackles, ranking fifth in the league according to Sportradar. His broken tackle every 8.6 carries ranks fourth in the league. Montgomery isn't the breakaway threat but is the guy who makes sure the chains keep moving. Montgomery ran for 122 yards against the Packers in the first game, a season high. He's coming off a 79-yard game, his second-best effort this year, and averages 65.5 yards on 13 attempts against the Packers for six games.
Bears CB Jaylon Johnson vs. Packers WR Christian Watson
Watson is starting to wake up after stumbling through the beginning of his first season. He has 12 catches for 265 yards the last three games with six TDs, outstanding numbers. However, prior to that he had only 10 catches for 88 yards in six games. He was held to three catches for 9 yards in the first Bears game. Jaylon Johnson has been stepping up when healthy. He has a career-best 94.8 passer rating-against and has given up one TD this year after allowing five in each of his first two seasons, according to Sportradar. Another thing Johnson is doing better in this scheme is tackling, with only 6.9% missed tackles. It is his career-best percentage and the oblique injury he had a few weeks ago now is a distant memory.
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