Things to Pursue and Avoid in Free Agency
Free agency needs to be taken for what it's worth.
The team relying on free agency too much eventually winds up like Ryan Poles' first Bears team. The new GM inherits a salary cap full of huge contracts belonging to overrated players and needs a full season of bludgeoning the roster to prepare it for something better in the future.
Thanks a lot Ryan Pace.
This is why the draft is so important.
However, sometimes holes happen. There needs to be judicious use of free agency to fix those problems.
A good use of free agency is bringing in a veteran who can fill a gap until a younger player develops. Another is having a roster only a player or two from either winning a Super Bowl or being a playoff team, then going out and spending what you need to spend to get that necessary player or players.
On the other hand, a poor use is a 7-10 team going out and throwing gobs of money at one particular player when they still have numerous lineup holes.
So there are dos and don'ts for every team in free agency based on their particular situation.
Here are the 10 dos and don'ts for the Bears in this particular free agency period.
1. Do inquire about DT Chris Jones and his salary demands. Don't expect to be interested in signing him with the Bears.
The dominant Chiefs defensive lineman would be an ideal fit for the Bears, playing 3-technique or even moving around to confuse opponents. He has this capability. However, he is already preoccupied with prolonging a championship run and pronounced his love for his current team at the post-Super Bowl celebration. After applying the $19.8 million tag to Jaylon Johnson and making their trade for Ryan Bates, the Bears are listed by Overthecap.com at $44.48 million in effective cap space available. They're now down to sixth place in available space and there are plenty of spots to address. Throwing around the kind of money being mentioned for Jones—$30 million or more a year—is going to leave very little for other need positions.
2. Do consider signing one of the veteran running backs. Don't overspend because the marketplace is loaded with players and the draft has some, as well.
Saquon Barkley would be a good fit for the offense many teams run, including one like Shane Waldron was running with the Seahawks before the Bears made him offensive coordinator. Austin Ekeler would be a fit for what the Bears need from a back as a complement to Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson because he's an excellent pass receiver, though not so much as a runner out of the backfield because he's 29 years old. However, someone with much greater speed might be an even better fit and the Bears could find that type of back in the draft. Looking at Barkley or even Tony Pollard and seeing what their asking price is can't hurt, though, especially Barkley.
3. Do look for a wide receiver to fit a specific need. Don't just call the agent of the top receiver available.
The Bears have a No. 1 receiver. They don't need one coming in and making more than DJ Moore. They might have the ability to draft a No. 2 receiver, depending on what happens at No. 9 in the draft. A slot receiver like Curtis Samuel would be a nice add. They drafted Tyler Scott last year but 19 rookie catches and several drops don't say he's someone to count on as a slot answer for Caleb Williams or whoever the quarterback will be. A good slot needs to know how to get open and shouldn't be the most expensive receiver because he's a specific use player. Usually they're second or third option in the progression for a QB. Samuel has an $11.5 million market value projection by Spotrac.com and has had 54 or more receptions in four of the last five seasons. The lone exception was 2021, when he suffered a season-ending injury in the fifth game.
4. Do look for veteran backup QB help. Don't expect Tyson Bagent to back up Williams.
Bagent was somewhat of a risk as backup behind Justin Fields last year. He showed his flaws in the final loss he had against New Orleans, by turning it over repeatedly. If you're getting rid of Fields' experience, then it makes more sense to have a backup like Gardner Minshew or someone who has starting experience. Starting Williams, backed up by Bagent with 4 1/2 games of experience, is saying the season is over if there is a serious injury to the starter like the Colts had with Anthony Richardson last year. They'd be taking a chance like Green Bay did last year with two inexperienced QBs.
5. Do look at veteran centers just like they need to look at drafting one. Don't go into training camp thinking Ryan Bates is a long-term answer.
There are varying projections on what injured Dolphins center Connor Williams should expect in free agency considering his torn ACL. Some are reasonable projections, well below $10 million for Pro Football Focus' top-ranked center last year. The Bears could afford to pay that and also start Bates at center while Williams is still rehabbing his knee. They could also start Bates while a rookie is learning the ropes. What they can't do is assume an undrafted $4 million-a-year career backup (19 starts, 73 games) is going to be their starting center long term and play well. They did this with Lucas Patrick and look where it got them at a critical line position. They were better at center in 2022 with Sam Mustipher starting than they were last year with Patrick.
6. Do look at safeties with ball skills. Don't look at someone like Jamal Adams.
Adams is a classic strong safety type. That position doesn't exist in this defense. It's like acquiring a 350-pound nose tackle to play in the one-gap scheme—he'd better be named Bruce Banner and able to scatter linemen like bowling pins or he's not playing in that scheme. Someone like Colts safety Julian Blackmon, a former Eberflus player, or Giants safety Xavier McKinney would be the type of safeties they should look at. Even—dare it be said—Lions safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who goaded two Bears receivers into being ejected in the 2020 season, would be a better fit.
7. Do look for an edge rusher. Don't look for a defensive end.
Note the difference. The Bears need someone coming off the edge who applies heat. They stress defensive ends who are stout against the run in this scheme, as well, but they have this already with both Montez Sweat and DeMarcus Walker. More than anything else, they need at least one very fast, dangeorus pass rusher who terrifies in passing situations with their speed around the corner. Call this situational, call it flat-out dangerous as a rusher. This is what they need. They might be able to draft someone who does both but getting help from an edge specifically applying heat to take pressure off Sweat is what's needed more than an all-around defensive end. If the player does do both, it's fine, but that edge heat is what they lack. If Yannick Ngakoue had done what they hoped, he'd have been fine for this. He didn't and then got hurt.
8. Do look for one more veteran linebacker. Don't look for a starter.
Dylan Cole is a free agent and it's debatable whether he was an asset beyond being a special teams player. They're fortunate in that they have Jack Sanborn as an experienced strongside who knows both of the other two positions but they would really benefit from another speedy linebacker big enough to play any of the three positions behind Sanborn who can be a backup along with Noah Sewell.
9. Do look for serious punting competition. Don't accept average.
Trenton Gill followed up a promising rookie year by backsliding. His average stayed about the same, although he was 25th overall in ounting average. But the net punting average dipped from 40.3 to 38, and part of it has to do with insufficient hang time. He had seven fewer fair catches even though he had one more punt. He had two less downed inside the 20 and had five more touchbacks (8). Putting all of that on the coverage teams is really a stretch. Gill needs to be better and serious camp competition will help.
10. Do look for a receiver/running back/defensive back who returns punts. Don't rely on another substandard return man.
They might find this in the draft, too. However, it's easier to obtain a low-cost one in free agency. They have five draft picks and all are Round 4 or earlier, and usually punt return value is found later in the draft. Free agent punt returners are proven and obvious. Neither Dante Pettis nor Trent Taylor were above average. And don't even think about possibly putting Velus Jones Jr. back there again.
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