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Justin Fields' outlook for the coming season looks bleak, whether you're basing his improvement on vague numerical procedures or you're putting your money down on his production.

Pro Football Focus gives Fields only a 21.9% chance to make it to the top half of the league's quarterbacks as dropback passer this season, for whatever that is worth.

According to a selective formula they apparently retrieved from somewhere on a shelf in a basement vault, PFF has determined Fields has less of a chance to improve as a dropback passer than Davis Mills (33.1%), Sam Darnold (30.1%), Jalen Hurts (54.5%) and Baker Mayfield (44.3%). 

Who Mayfield is going to improve for is unaddressed by the so-called pro football numbers experts. Only Zach Wilson (18.6%) has less of a chance to make the top half of the league than Fields.

When it comes to numbers regular human beings can understand, Fields isn't expected to light the world on fire, either.

According to the gambling site, Fields is likely to be right with Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Davis Mills and Wilson in throwing the most interceptions in 2022.

The over/under on Fields' interceptions for this season is set at 14 1/2. His over/under for touchdown passes is set at 19 1/2. His passing yards over/under is set at 3,250. 

Fields last year threw eight TD passes, 10 interceptions and had 1,870 yards in 10 starts.

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The passing yardage total would keep alive the Bears' streak of never having a 4,000-yard passer. They're the only franchise that can claim this distinction. 

While it might seem a meager total to most NFL fans, it must be noted that if Fields hits the number on the head it would be the sixth-best effort in franchise history and better than anything Mitchell Trubisky ever did. Jay Cutler four times had more than 3,250 yards and Erik Kramer's 1995 season of 3,838 remains the highest total by a Bears passer.

The world is not all doom and gloom for Fields when it comes to gambling futures. Vegas, at least, thinks he will be able to run the football.

Fields is predicted to finish among the top five quarterbacks in rushing yards by oddsmakers at, ranking in a group with Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Trey Lance.

The over/under for Fields' rushing yards is set at 599 and it's 4 1/2 for rushing touchdowns.

Considering Fields ran for 420 yards last year when he started only 10 games, and the expected continued weakness of the Bears offensive line that will be trying to protect him, the over rushing totals might be the easiest money available for bettors on Fields.

Of course, big rushing numbers won't say much for his ability to throw the ball and that's why the Bears drafted him. But they are much easier to understand by common citizens than the numbers PFF trotted out regarding Fields' possible improvement as a pocket passer.

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