Past Markets Suggest Bears Could Keep Nick Kwiatkoski
There's a good reason the Bears had talks with three inside linebackers at the Senior Bowl.
They're bracing for the fact they could lose not just free agent Danny Trevathan but also free agent Nick Kwiatkoski.
In fact, because Kwiatkoski is younger it's entirely possible he'd be more highly sought than Trevathan. It wouldn't have been this way a year ago, but Kwiatkoski did enough to convince some people he can play at a high level as a starter.
Pro Football Focus called Kwiatkoski a "bright spot" for the Bears defense last year. They gave him a strong 72.6 grade. Kwiatkoski officially made a career-high 68 tackles last season
It is true Kwiatkoski showed teams he could defend the pass much better than in the past, when he'd sometimes been a liability in coverage.
Trevathan always was regarded as a downhill type of linebacker, but last year he had a passer rating against of 66.0, far better than Danny Trevathan's 113.5 and even better than the strong 75.9 turned in by Roquan Smith. It was 31.3 lower than in 2018. He also gave up fewer yards per completion (6.7) than Trevathan (10.0) and Smith (8.9).
Kwiatkoski wasn't the sure tackler both Smith and Trevathan were, missing on 12.8% of his tackle attempts while Smith missed just 3.8% and Trevathan 4.1%.
Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated suggested Kwiatkoski could be the third most-sought inside linebacker after Cory Littleton and Joe Schobert, and added that someone should be looking to signing him, "... And maybe that someone will be his old coordinator Vic Fangio in Denver."
Unless he's changed greatly, Fangio always liked veterans over younger guys when he was in Chicago.
The signing team could be taking a big risk if they're paying out the kind of money suggested in those two appraisals.
This isn't to suggest Kwiatkoski isn't worth it. However, they may be surprised to find what journeyman Kevin Pierre-Louis did last year when pressed into starting service. He actually had a lower passer rating against than Kwiatkowski. It could very well be a case of system success, not individual advancement.
And by the way, Pierre-Louis is also a free agent.
As for the money discussed in the SI article, both Littleton and Schobert are proven starters. Kwiatkoski has only started when pressed into service.
Here is the sad truth for inside linebackers: They're not valued as much as many other defensive players. They're not quite being treated like the refuse running backs have become, but it's close.
Last year C.J. Mosley pulled in the big contract at $85 million for five years when he jumped from the Ravens to the Jets, with $51 million guaranteed. Kwon Alexander got $54 million for four years when he went to the 49ers from the Bucs, with $25 million guaranteed. Both of those players had been starters.
After that, the cash for free agent linebackers plummeted. Jordan Hicks got $34 million for four years to go to Arizona with $20 million guaranteed.
The only deal significantly higher than the $2.14 million Kwiatkoski received in 2019 was the $7.5 million for two years Jake Ryan accepted to go to the Jaguars from the Packers. And that was with only $1 million guaranteed. All figures are from Overthecap.com.
These were deals for players who all started regularly, not backups who someone thought might be ascending.
The market won't change much to this year for inside linebackers, either.
Trevathan likely won't get close to the $7 million per year he received in 2019 in the final year of his contract, unless something changes drastically in the marketplace.
The Bears could find themselves in a position to afford Kwiatkoski again. Then again, they also might wind up with Trevathan.
As has been stated here before, it's an either-or situation for the Bears.
Both won't be back because it wouldn't make sense for the players to both come back and one to sit behind the other.
If both decide they want to leave because someone actually wanted to spend a lot of money on a position where few teams do, then it's a good thing the Bears are talking to college inside linebackers because they'll need some.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
