Week 4 Fields Debut Against Lions?
Much emphasis has been placed on the Bears offense this offseason, from two new quarterbacks to a few new speedy receivers and a new left tackle.
The offense had better be ready.
The NFL schedule released on Wednesday has given the Bears offense a formidable task.
Overall the schedule is the third most difficult based on winning percentages, but it's even tougher for their offense when last year's defenses are considered.
The Bears will be playing seven games against teams with defenses ranked among the top nine in the league last year.
The opener against the Rams is against the league's No. 1 defense. They face Pittsburgh (No. 3), San Francisco (No. 5), Tampa Bay (No. 6), Baltimore (No. 7) and have two games against the Packers (No. 9).
It's not like the Bears defense gets a pass, either, particularly their run defense. It's a good thing for the Bears nose tackle Eddie Goldman is returning from an opt-out because they'll need to be far more stout against the run this season.
Eight of the 17 games they play are against teams ranked in the top 10 in rushing last season.
Baltimore led the league in rushing and the Bears must try to stop Lamar Jackson and the running attack. They have to face Cleveland (No. 3), Minnesota (5th) twice, Arizona (7th), Green Bay (8th) twice and the Rams (10th) in the opener.
A stretch of their schedule from Oct. 17 against the Packers through Nov. 21 against Baltimore includes four playoff opponents and the fifth opponent is 2019 Super Bowl team San Francisco, which didn't make the playoffs during an injury-riddled 2020 season. When the stretch ends, the Bears have to play on only a few days rest as they're in a Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit at 11:30 a.m.
Coach Matt Nagy, speaking on NFL Network's NFL Schedule Release program, pointed out one positive with this schedule. He called this unique.
"This is the first time I've been a part of this where we literally have a home and away alternate for every game of the entire season," Nagy said.
There are no consecutive home games or consecutive road games.
"So that's good for us, we like that," Nagy said.
However, he also pointed out the team has to travel on Christmas Day to get to Seattle for a Monday night game the next day and they also play for the third time in four years at Detroit on Thanksgiving. How do they always get this lucky?
There are very few rest areas in this journey, and here's how it projects.
Week 1: Rams 24, Bears 17
At L.A.
In prime time openers, the Bears have never lost to a team other than the Packers. This looks a bit more formidable considering they face Aaron Donald with Andy Dalton at quarterback and his blind side is protected by a rookie. Points will come at a premium against the league's top defense from 2020, although their defensive coordinator is now with the Chargers.
Record: 0-1
Week 2: Bears 26, Bengals 13
At Soldier Field
Joe Burrow might be available, he might not. It doesn't matter. Having fans at Soldier Field for a regular-season game for the first time since 2019 will mean a wild atmosphere. It will make Akiem Hicks, Khalil Mack, Bilal Nichols and Roquan Smith all the more formidable.
Record: 1-1
Week 3: Browns 23, Bears 14
At Cleveland
Baker Mayfield might experience trouble getting in the end zone against this defensive front but the Bears offense should have an even more difficult time against Myles Garrett and Co. The Dog Pound lives again and the Bears will get to experience it, to their chagrin.
Record: 1-2
Week 4: Bears 31, Lions 13
At Soldier Field
This is it, the change occurs here, a game later than it did last year. Matt Nagy gets anxious about a 10-3 Detroit lead in the second quarter. It's time, before the home crowd at Soldier Field Justin Fields come onto the field and his running and passing triggers four straight touchdowns in a rout of the Detroit Knee Biters. There is no more ideal of a time for a change at quarterback than this game because it's against an opponent Fields could handle in his debut and one the defense could handle, as well.
Record: 2-2
Week 5: Raiders 27, Bears 16
At Las Vegas
On paper a team the Bears would be 50-50 to beat but Fields is playing in his first road game, in an indoor stadium and raucous environment. The Raiders should be better on offense than in the past, as well. Derek Carr beats his old friend Khalil Mack again.
Record: 2-3
Week 6: Bears 23, Packers 10
At Soldier Field
Quarterback Jordan Love starts for the first time against the Bears and the defense is rather angered by its failure in Vegas. Aaron Rodgers is somewhere else, maybe Denver. The Packers are a different team without Rodgers. A Packers team relying on the run against a better Bears run defense, led by nose tackle Eddie Goldman, will mean a rare convincing victory over the team from the north.
Record: 3-3
Week 7: Buccaneers 24, Bears 17
At Tampa
Tampa Bay's strength is not Tom Brady, but rather the blitzing, dominant defense of coordinator Todd Bowles. They'll give the rookie Bears quarterback fits and produce turnovers. It's going to be a struggle for a while for a young passer when facing complex, pressure NFL defenses.
Record: 3-4
Week 8: Bears 19, 49ers 17
At Soldier Field
Jimmy G returns to Chicago and is still starting because raw rookie Trey Lance isn't ready. The defense rises to the occasion and snuffs out a run-heavy San Francisco offense while the Bears on offense rely heavily on the legs and wits of their rookie quarterback and four Cairo Santos field goals. The last one from 50 yards beats Robbie Gould's team. Gould goes 1-for-3 in the game on field goals.
Record: 4-4
Week 9: Steelers 24, Bears 20
At Pittsburgh
Ben Roethlisberger isn't through yet and his late-game mastery brings Pittsburgh a win, ending the Bears' three-game winning streak over the Steelers. It's a tough place to play and Fields holds up his end by getting the Bears back the lead in the fourth quarter but the revamped Bears secondary is no match for a Steelers team desperate for a win in a division that is suddenly one of the league's toughest.
Record: 4-5
Week 10 BYE
Week 11: Ravens 31, Bears 14
At Soldier Field
The 2018 Bears defense could have chewed up Lamar Jackson and spit him out, much like the Bears defense of Brian Urlacher did so often against Michael Vick. Scrambling quarterbacks against zone-based, quick defenses do not enjoy success. The problem is, this Bears defensive front is very veteran. The speed is Roquan Smith. That's it. When they lost Leonard Floyd they lost the player they had who often tracked down flushed-out quarterbacks or he flushed them out himself. This will be a convincing loss, over by the start of the third quarter. The other problem here is the bye. Matt Nagy can't coach out of the bye and the Bears have been terrible out of the bye. The haven't won one since 2013.
Record: 4-6
Week 12: Bears 26, Lions 23
At Detroit
Detroit is greatly improved since Week 4 and has the advantage of a Thanksgiving home game in a short work week, but several weeks of playing time have hardened Fields. He is now starting to get it, and manages to rally the Bears for the winning field goal with scrambles and passes to Allen Robinson on the final drive.
Record: 5-6
Week 13: Bears 33, Cardinals 30
At Soldier Field
This is where Fields' brilliance really begins to show. He outduels Kyler Murray. The difference is Murray doesn't have the Bears defense backing him, but also Fields is a more accurate downfield passer. It's the first 300-yard passing day for Fields.
Record: 6-6
Week 14: Packers 20, Bears 19
At Green Bay, Wis.
Too many mistakes and the Packers do enough with their short passing, running game and a lack of turnovers to scrape out a win at home in a defensive struggle despite four sacks by Khalil Mack.
Record: 6-7
Week 15: Bears 27, Vikings 20
At Soldier Field
David Montgomery goes over 1,000 yards rushing with a 120-yard effort against a defense still leaky against the run. Kirk Cousins is good for a few turnovers as usual.
Record: 7-7
Week 16: Seahawks 28, Bears 23
At Seattle
Trying to use Kindle Vildor and Jaylon Johnson against the Seahawks and Russell Wilson proves the undoing of the defense. Desmond Trufant is out with hamstring issues. The pass rush can't keep Wilson in the pocket and he repeatedly hits them deep to D.K. Metcalf. Fields said Wilson was the quarterback he patterns his game after more these days, so he watches closely and learns.
Record: 7-8
Week 17: Bears 27, Giants 19
At Soldier Field
Still in the wild-card chase, Fields leads the offense to a win over an improved Giants team that still lacks the offensive line and over defensive ability to stick with most teams. Fields outperforms Daniel Brown by throwing for 240 yards and two touchdowns.
Record: 8-8
Week 18: Vikings 23, Bears 16
At Minneapolis
Payback by the division champion Vikings ruins Bears playoff chances. The Bears need a win to clinch the division, can't get into the playoffs with a wild card at 9-8 this year, and they don't get the needed win. Fields finishes the season with 7.7 yards per pass attempt, giving rise to hopes he has a real future. Mack finishes with 14 sacks. The defense makes more interceptions than any time since the end of the Lovie Smith era, except for 2018. Against such a difficult schedule and using a rookie quarterback who is learning, this sub-.500 record and playoff miss is really not a bad effort. Does Bears ownership say it's good enough to continue this GM and coaching regime? Considering the encouraging production by Fields as a rookie, the likely answer is yes.
Before the draft, the BearDigest.com projection for this season was 6-11. The draft, Fields, and a few more free agents have upped the possibilities. And the Aaron Rodgers news didn't hurt, either. Minnesota takes the NFC North at 10-7.
2021 record: 8-9
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
