Key Factors Weighing Down Cole Kmet

In his third year, the Bears tight end badly needs to become more of a red zone threat but it's not clear how much more or less new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy will use him within the offense.

Two years ago Cole Kmet came to the Bears as a rookie in a tight ends room at Halas Hall full of more experienced players, and he struggled to be open for targets until the halfway point.

Much has changed for Kmet, but there still are two tight ends on the team with more experience. Except now it's former Jets tight end Ryan Griffin and former Jaguars tight end James O'Shaughnessy.

What is different is no question exists who the No. 1 is as Kmet emerged in 2021 as chief Bears tight end threat.

Kmet more than doubled his catch total from 28 to 60, despite the Bears shuffling through three quarterbacks. So far he is following the trajectory of other top tight ends in the league.

T.J. Hockenson went from 32 to 67 receptions and would have had more still his third year since he was at 61 before an injury stopped his season with five games left. Travis Kelce also had 67 catches his second season. Zach Ertz had 58 receptions in his second season.

It is the third year when the tight ends who really last in the NFL as forces seem to solidify their growth. So Kmet is at a crossroads.

Kmet's catch totals have been sufficient and the yards per catch had been a problem, but he upped it from 8.7 to 10.2 last year.

The one thing Kmet hasn't been able to do is catch passes in the end zone, a fact which infuriates many fantasy football owners far more than it seems to bother the Bears.

With two TDs after two seasons, Kmet has half the total that former Bears second-round tight end Adam Shaheen had in two years. Yet, Kmet had 10 more catches last season alone than Shaheen has made for his entire five-year career.

Kmet has made himself more available to quarterback Justin Fields in the offseason to work on their connection in an attempt to correct red zone issues. He went to Atlanta to work with Fields and Darnell Mooney, and sees it helping.

"You know you definitely feel that, obviously that's why the things I do in the offseason with Justin and Mooney, you do those type of things, building relationships, things like that and we're growing and I feel good about it," Kmet said.

What Kmet craves is stability at quarterback, and not simply because of the changing faces. He felt the different types of passers the Bears used last year made for confusion within the offense.

"I mean it's tough on a player trying to get a feel for guys and you know different kind of scheme changes depending on who the quarterback is," he said.

It was one type of offense for Justin Fields vs one for Andy Dalton and Nick Foles.

With top target Allen Robinson gone, it's tough to see how this is going to actually help open things up for Kmet in the red zone. 

It could all be up to new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to get this corrected, but there is another problem here: The Packers weren't especially reliant on tight ends in the receiving game since they put their current offense into place. It's an offense similar to the one Getsy is using in Chicago.

The Packers never hit 100 targets for tight ends in the last three seasons under Matt LaFleur and have targeted tight ends only 16.8% of the time since he's been their coach.

By contrast, the Bears were targeting tight ends on 22.7% of their throws the last two seasons since Kmet came to the team. Was Green Bay's reluctance to target tight ends by design or simply because Aaron Rodgers could look elsewhere with Davante Adams as an open target? 

Would Getsy have the Bears target tight ends more?

Another potential factor for Kmet's targets is the impact of Griffin and O'Shaughnessy. Last year Jimmy Graham obviously seemed at the end of his career and neither Jesse James nor Jesper Horsted were relied upon by the Bears as they combined for 11 targets. But both Griffin and O'Shaughnessy have been productive tight ends, and aren't too old or inexperienced to contribute.

It's something for Bears fans and fantasy owners to ponder as Kmet's third season approaches and he looks to find the end zone.

Cole Kmet at a Glance

Career: Third year, 88 career catches on 137 targets for 855 yards ad two TDs.

2021: 60 receptions on 93 targets for 612 yards with no TDs.

The number: 5. Kmet made five red zone receptions last year in 12 targets and none were for TDs..

2022 FanNation Projection for Kmet: 90 targets, 69 receptions, 700 yards, 5 TDs.

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