Fantasy Projection for David Montgomery
Injuries obviously impact player projections.
Bigger overall numbers for Bears running back David Montgomery last year never really materialized largely because of a knee sprain which sidelined him four games starting in Week 5 against the Raiders.
The numbers suggest the Montgomery who played in Weeks 1-4 never surfaced again last year, as the knee sprain may have affected his play.
So it's safe to believe he'll be back full strength in 2022 and capable of much better.
Or Montgomery's reduced production after Week 4 could also be interpreted in another way: He returned to an offense on the downslide and in disarray, so he never achieved what he had earlier in the year. Certainly a 6-11 record and nine losses in the final 12 games indicates this was a factor at the very least.
Montgomery worked extensively on improving his speed last offseason and it showed right away in a few breakaway runs like backs need to bolster their yards per carry.
In the first four games, Montgomery averaged 4.48 yards a rush and had three TDs. He averaged 77.3 yards a game. After the injury, he averaged 60 yard, 3.46 yards a run with four rushing TDs in nine games
Nowhere is the change in Montgomery's fortunes reflected so obviously as in red zone statistics. He averaged 3.6 yards inside the 20 before the injury, then 1.5 yards afterward.
One could point to schedule as a determining factor. It wasn't. In fact, tougher games came earlier.
Although they played the Lions in Week 4, they also played the two Super Bowl teams and faced a swarming Cleveland defense on the road at the height of its dominance in Week 3.
Projecting Montgomery for 2022 is the matter at hand, though, and matters like offensive style and usage figure into the equation. It's not a route with all road signs pointing to success, but most do.
For their part, the new coaches like his approach. Nothing has changed in this regard for Montgomery even though he seemed more emotionally affected by the firing of Matt Nagy in a postseason interview than some other players were. Montgomery is a true pro and realizes NFL life goes on.
"As a person, serious guy, he wants to get better," running backs coach David Walker said. "The thing I like about David is he doesn't feel like he's arrived yet. You know what I mean?
"Some of the guys that have been in the league for a while think they have arrived. He's trying to learn from his standpoint."
No one has ever questioned Montgomery's attitude. It's the change in coaches which could impact his production and largely in a positive manner.
On one hand they have an offensive coordinator in Luke Getsy, who saw the importance of the running attack in Green Bay under Matt LaFleur.
"The biggest thing that attracted me to that opportunity to work with Matt was the teaching style and the emphasis to committing to the run game, letting the run game drive the play pass game and then building everything around that," Getsy said. "We'll be a similar type of approach. We'll let one thing drive the next.
"It's all about protecting the QB. Everything is about QB. If you can run the ball and you can play-(action) pass. You're going to have an opportunity to protect your QB."
While this suggests great opportunity for Montgomery, the philosophy in Green Bay has also been using multiple backs in the attack.
Nagy wanted to do this in Chicago, or at least said he did. It never happened despite the presence of Tarik Cohen in one full season with Montgomery, and then two very capable backs last year. Even in 2021 when Montgomery had a four-game injury, he had 60.9% of the rushing attempts made by backs. In the previous two seasons his percetage was 73.9 and 75.9.
Meanwhile, in Green Bay Aaron Jones has been the lead back with other capable backs behind him. Yet, the Packers used Jones for only 43.7% of carries in 2021, 47.8% in 2020.
While Getsy is not going to run an offense exactly like LaFleur and Nathaniel Hackett ran it, he definitely could be expected to count on Khalil Herbert to take some load off of Montgomery's shoulders.
It's going to reduce Montgomery's percentage of rushing attempts. His receiving attempts shouldn't be impacted as much because he is a good pass blocker, the best the Bears have. They'd likely leave him in to pass block more than they would the other backs.
Another major factor limiting Montgomery is the offensive line. They removed their best blocker according to Pro Football Focus analysis, 40-year-old left tackle Jason Peters. They also lost their second-best blocker based on PFF numbers, right guard James Daniels. It's a guess at this point who replaces them but there are very few comparative NFL starts credited to the players who will do so.
In the passing game, there is no proof yet they could get better receiving production from the other backs, although rookie Trestan Ebner has displayed very good hands both in college and at the OTA workouts media has been allowed to witness. Montgomery has always been a key passing game contributor.
The other factor affecting Montgomery's 2022 projection is his contract. He has none for 2023 at this point. If it continues this way through the offseason and then the season, the motivation would seem higher.
Then again, Montgomery never has been a back who needs external motivation.
David Montgomery at a Glance
Career: Fourth year, 714 career carries, 2,808 yards, 21 TDs, 3.9 yards an attempt; 154 targets, 121 receptions, 924 yards, 3 TDs, 7.6 yards a catch.
2021: 225 rushes, 849 yards, 7 TDs, 3.8 YPA; 51 targets, 42 receptions, 301 yards, 7.2 yards a catch.
The number: 16. David Montgomery's total of broken tackles in 2021 according to official NFL stat partner Sportradar. It tied him for 12th in the NFL with four other backs. It was a career-low total and career-worst ranking. Montgomery had 29 in 2020 and was third in the league and 28 in 2019 when he was eighth in the league.
2022 projection: 233 carries, 955 yards, 4.1 ypa, 8 TDs; 60 receptions, 481 yards, 2 TDs.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
