The Odds Stacked Against Velus Jones
It's very easy for the Bears to get overly excited about Velus Jones when they see a 6-foot, 204-pound wide receiver who ran 4.31 seconds in the 40-yard dash and caught 62 passes for 807 yards last year.
Then the reality sets in: Why did it take until his sixth year to catch more than 24 passes? Why did he need to leave USC before he blossomed at Tennessee? Why did he last until Round 3?
History suggests the Bears shouldn't expect much from Jones, even if he is 25 years old and has great speed. He's still a rookie.
If Jones explodes on the scene, then they would really have something and know it right away. If he doesn't, it hardly dooms him to mediocrity—it merely means he's like most receivers and needs to develop.
Third-Round Divider
The third round is a sort of cutoff point for receivers in the draft.
Chances for finding someone who contributes serious numbers immediately usually end after Round 2.
In the seven drafts prior to the Bears selecting Jones, there were 28 wide receiver chosen in Round 3 of the draft. The average third-round receiver catches 20.8 passes for 275.4 yards and 1.75 touchdowns as a rookie.
It doesn't sound like much.
Five caught 34 passes or more as rookies, or 2.0 per game by today's numbers: Tyler Lockett (51), Chris Godwin (34), Cooper Kupp (62), Terry McLaurin (58) and Diontae Johnson (59).
Eight had 340 yards or more, or 20 per scheduled game. Ten of the 28 had more than one TD catch as a rookie and 10 made none.
How to Get Jones Going
Getsy is trying to form an offense using players' strengths, and Jones' are well pronounced.
"We've got to tap into what they do best and I think that will give us the opportunity to be the kind of offense that everybody wants to see," Getsy said.
For the 25-year-old Jones, this could be plenty of short routes or receiver screens, or it could be a deep ball on occasion so he can let loose some of the 4.31-second speed.
Expecting Jones to go down the sideline and beat someone in a jump ball situation might not be prudent.
He has only a 33-inch vertical leap at 6-foot.
It is here where the comparisons the Bears like to make between Jones and what Deebo Samuel end.
Samuel is roughly Jones' height and both had 62 receptions in their final years of college after slower starts. But Samuel is 11 pounds heavier and possesses a six-inch better vertical leap. He's also a very good runner if lined up in the backfield.
The 49ers found in Round 2 a player with a more versatile skill set.
Jones carried 15 times on running plays in college and didn't average 4.0 yards a carry.
It's not that Jones lacks versatility, he just doesn't really have that air-borne quality Samuel has to go along with a very strong power game. Running with the ball on a handoff requires good fortune, repetitions and blocking.
Jones did run 4.31 seconds in the 40 and Samuel ran only 4.48, so the ability to beat defenders straight down the sideline should be one of his advantages.
But Samuel has the ability to shake off defenders who get physical at the start of the route. No one knows if a rookie has this trait because there aren't enough good, physical cornerbacks in college football. If the Bears find Samuel does, then they are ahead of the game.
The Projection
Figuring out what to exect from Jones in Year 1 for the sake of following the Bears or for fantasy football purposes is a difficult task.
Getsy simplified things. It's on the player to show what he's capable of doing in this offense, and the more coaches feed him.
"And so if Velus shows that he can handle more than he's going to get more but it's about each and every single guy on our team," Getsy said. "We've got to tap into what they do best and I think that will give us the opportunity to be the kind of offense that everybody wants to see."
Assuming Jones will be one of those blessed third-rounders who beat the odds and shows coaches he can handle more could be overly optimistic. A 28-catch season would be beating the rookie odds.
Based on the law of averages, Getsy and Jones have a lot of tapping-into to do if he's going to be elite among third-round receivers.
Velus Jones at a Glance
Vitals: 6-foot 204 pounds, third-round pick in 2022 (Tennessee).
College Career: Made 36 catches for 347 yards and 1 TD at USC in four seasons, a 9.6-yard average per catch. Made 84 catches for 1,087 yards and 10 TDs at Tennessee for two years. For his career, he had 122 kick returns for a 24.4-yard average and two TDs, 18 punt returns for a 15.1-yard average.
The Number: 2. Jones scored only two touchdowns at USC, one on a reception in his third season and the other on a kick return in his final year.
2022 FanNation Projection: 36 receptions, 369 yards, 2 TDs; 6 carries, 25 yards, 0 TDs; 18 kick returns for a 25-yard average.
Third-Round Wide Receivers
(Since 2015 Draft)
| Receiver, Draft Year | Rookie Production |
|---|---|
Ty Montgomery, 2015 | 15 catches, 136 yards, 2 TDs |
Sammie Coates, 2015 | 1 catch, 11 yards |
Chris Conley, 2015 | 17 catches, 199 yards, 1 TD |
Jaelen Strong, 2015 | 14 catches, 161 yards, 3 TDs |
Tyler Lockett, 2015 | 51 catches, 664 yards, 6 TDs |
Leonte, Carroo, 2016 | 3 catches, 29 yards, 1 TD |
Braxton Miller, 2016 | 15 catches, 99 yards, 1 TD |
Amara Darboh, 2017 | 8 catches, 71 yards |
Chad Williams, 2017 | 3 catches, 31 yards |
Kenny Golladay, 2017 | 28 catches, 477 yards, 3 TDs |
Chris Godwin, 2017 | 34 catches, 525 yards, 1 TD |
Carlos Henderson, 2017 | 0 |
ArDarius Stewart, 2017 | 6 catches, 82 yards |
Cooper Kupp, 2017 | 62 catches, 869 yards, 5 TDs |
Taywan Taylor, 2017 | 16 catches, 231 yards, 1 TD |
Tre'Quan Smith, 2018 | 28 catches, 427 yards, 5 TDs |
Michael Gallup, 2018 | 33 catches, 507 yards, 2 TDs |
Diontae Johnson, 2019 | 59 catches, 680 yards, 5 TDs |
Jalen Hurd, 2019 | 0 |
Terry McLaurin, 2019 | 58 catches, 919 yards, 7 TDs |
Miles Boykin, 2019 | 13 catches, 198 yards, 3 TDs |
Lynn Bowden, 2020 | 28 catches, 211 yards |
Bryan Edwards, 2020 | 11 catches, 193 yards, 1 TD |
Devin Duvernay, 2020 | 20 catches, 201 yards |
Nico Collins, 2021 | 33 catches, 446 yards, 1 TD |
Anthony Schwartz, 2021 | 10 catches, 135 yards, 1 TD |
Amari Rodgers, 2021 | 4 catches, 45 yards |
Dyami Brown, 2021 | 12 catches, 165 yards |
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