Free Agency Dollars and Sense: Jimmy Graham's Return a Close Call
When free agency decisions become apparent for the Bears in about six weeks, one of the more difficult ones they must make is on tight end Jimmy Graham.
A team strapped for salary cap cash could get back about $3.9 million by cutting Graham, whose salary is not guaranteed this year the way it was in 2020.
This might be one of those decisions where it make sense financially to simply keep him. Then again, logic does exist to anticipate lower production from him this year, but to cut him could inflict far more severe pain on the team than absorbing his cash figure would.
The Bears had Graham for three basic reasons this year:
- They needed a red-zone target.
- They had to have a veteran mentor figure for rookie Cole Kmet as they brought him along.
- They needed another U-tight end who could make enough catches to elevate their offensive production closer to 2018 levels.
In virtually every aspect, Ryan Pace's move to sign Graham proved a success. It was a signing he took plenty of heat over, but it proved worthwhile.
Kmet needed to come in cold with no training camp, no offseason work. Yet he wound up with 28 receptions for 243 yards. Both numbers led all tight ends from the 2020 draft class.
"Honestly, when I look back, having a guy like Jimmy Graham who we have talked about in the past was a huge benefit for me this year," Kmet said.
Graham had 50 receptions for 456 yards and eight touchdowns. His catch percentage of 65.8% of times targeted was the highest he's had since 2016, during a Pro Bowl year in Seattle. He's made more TD catches only once in the last six years.
Graham turned 34 late in the season so he won't be 35 when next season begins.
"I think now, greater than ever, for us on offense, he's a valuable asset—not just because of who he is as a player, but how he practices," Bears coach Matt Nagy said near season's end. "His speed right now at practice, guys, is—his GPS numbers—are like crazy good in practice (in the final two weeks). In practice and in the game, he's rolling right now. We joke about him being 39 or whatever he is, and he's rolling pretty good."
He also was the team's Walter Payton Man of the Year Award nominee.
Then again, as the team progresses in 2021 Kmet will be expected to make more receptions.
Detroit tight end T.J. Hockenson made a comparable number of receptions as a rookie with 32, then leaped to 67 in 2020. This has been common with other tight ends. George Kittle went from 43 to 88 in his second year. Zach Ertz went from 36 to 58. Austin Hooper went from 19 to 49 catches.
If Kmet is to make a leap of this sort, would there even be a need for another tight end taking catches away that Kmet could make?
With Graham's 6-foot-7 height, though, red zone catches alone could make him worth retaining at a total cash figure of $6.9 million. Eight TD catches were invaluable in 2020.
If the Bears want to cut him, it would be difficult to maintain the savings they make and still have another veteran tight end on the roster capable of lending a hand as a receiver.
There are some tight ends who would be productive and might be acquired for a low cost.
Philadelpha's Richard Rodgers enjoyed his best season since 2016 with 24 receptions and 345 yards for 275 snaps playing on a team with tight ends Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz. He could be a nice complementary type as a versatile performer, who is 29 years old. His cost would be minimal as he had injury problems each of his last three seasons.
Jacksonville's James O'Shaughnessy is a lower paid free agent tight end who has been a solid role player.
Arizona's Dan Arnold made a big step up as a taller, red zone target and has the added asset for any possible Bears free agent acquisition of being a former New Orleans Saints player. Bears GM Ryan Pace does love those players Saints GM Mickey Loomis liked. He made 31 catches this past season and would be lowe cost.
Another in this category would be Seattle's Jacob Hollister—a former Patriots tight end. That's two franchises who have made good use of tight ends over the years. He had 41 and 25 receptions the last two years in Seattle with six total TDs. However, he might be a little too expensive for what the Bears would be seeing.
Players like Jordan Reed and Jared Cook are also available, aging veterans who cost more but still have the talent to do what Graham did. It's unlikely they could realize any cap savings by signing either of them if they also cut Graham.
Graham knows the offense now, has a better idea where he can get open against zones in the red zone, and could continue being useful in this way.
The best option on what looks like a close call might just be forgetting this cap savings, paying the money, sticking with what worked well last year, but keep Kmet's snap total rising in order to ensure he continues to progress.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
