Eric Ebron or Jimmy Graham: Who Was Right Bears Choice?
Normally it takes a season or some games for Ryan Pace to really draw tons of flak for a decision.
Sure, he got pelted right after trading up on draft day 2017 to select Mitchell Trubisky but the criticism was a pittance compared to the heat he's taken since Patrick Mahomes became an MVP and Deshaun Watson turned out to be a younger version of Cam Newton.
Now everyone in the world of public opinion seems to be ganging up on Pace again because of Friday's signing by the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers signed Colts free agent tight end Eric Ebron for two years and $12 million.
The Bears paid $16 million with $9 million guaranteed over two years for aging free agent tight end Jimmy Graham.
Now Ebron is not going to Canton. He has plenty of fans but many in the media who watched him objectively have noted a lack of discipline in his game. More importantly, anyone can look at his dropped pass statistics and see the problems he has.
Nevertheless, he is an excellent athlete who does make spectacular catches at times, and at a savings of $2 million each year the next two years he is a bargain compared to Graham.
Ebron will be 27 in a few days, while Graham will turn 34 during the upcoming season and obviously he has slowed.
Pace even wanted Graham so much more than anyone else he got the deal done before the free agency negotiating period even began. The Packers didn't want Graham with a year left on his deal and let him go, giving him a chance to get a head start on finding a team before the negotiating period began.
So Pace wasn't really bidding against anyone and determined he could give $16 million for a player who is older and obviously slower.
That $4 million he could have saved by taking the younger, faster player might have been valuable now as they look for a safety.
This doesn't look good for Pace, but he actually looks to have made the right call.
Statistically, anyway, Eric Ebron has never been in the same class as Jimmy Graham as a receiver.
Only in one season has Ebron ever had more catches than Graham, 2018: 66 to 55. The Bears would have been elated with either of those figures last year after their tight ends combined had 46 catches. Graham's 55 catches in 2018 were more than Trey Burton had that season, so this was no indication he's tailed off.
Last year Graham had only 38 catches. That was still seven more than Ebron had. Sure, Ebron got injured. That's part of his problem. He's injured too much.
In 10 years, Graham has missed only seven games and he missed them in three different seasons.
In six seasons, Ebron has played only two full seasons and he's missed 13 games. He's had missed games in four seasons.
Availability counts for a great deal, as Pace reminded everyone when discussing his two tight ends from last season. Graham has always been available. Ebron has not.
Graham is aging, but the length of the contracts for both players is only two years. You're not talking about how Graham will play when he's 37, just the next two years. And when you base how he's played compared with how Ebron has played over the course of what they've done in the NFL, it's not even close.
Graham has averaged 17 more catches and 250 more yards a season than Ebron has. His production hasn't diminished to the point where it's as bad as Ebron's averages.
The numbers aren't even close.
And there's one other number explaining why Graham is a better choice: 3.
He's 6-foot-7, three inches taller than Ebron is and the Bears obtained Graham because h they need another red zone threat. A receiver who has 3 inches on the other other one, and has a much better catches/times targeted percentage through the course of his career is a better red zone target.
Ebron would have been fine if the Bears were signing tight ends to four-year deals, but this is a short-term type fix and it's better to have the more productive player and the one least likely to drop a pass.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
