Justin Fields Must Anticipate Like Andy Dalton
It's difficult for Bears coach Matt Nagy to downplay his enjoyment at seeing Andy Dalton throw passes at practice and also think out loud about what Justin Fields could eventually do.
After seeing Mitchell Trubisky unable for three seasons to do many of the things Dalton is doing immediately, it's easy to understand why the Bears coach is happy with early progress by passers.
"He obviously has a great relationship with (offensive coordinator) Bill Lazor and for us to be able to see, OK, what does Andy do well? We're starting to see that already now that we're out on the grass," Nagy said. "You could see this kid, when I say kid, you know, Andy, he is doing a great job of making anticipatory throws, throwing the ball early.
"If there's one thing that these wide receivers are going to come out of this OTAs from and obviously from training camp, too, they're going to see that when that ball is supposed to be there, that ball is gonna be there so they better get ready to put their hands up to catch it, you better be at right spot, at the right depth, and be doing your route adjustments accordingly. I think it really is impressive with how much he's digested this playbook already and now he’s doing it with these players."
The thing pleasing Nagy most right now is that anticipatory throw.
The pleasure of seeing this should probably belong more to Bears fans than Nagy. After all, they've been following the team much longer than Nagy has been in Chicago and the Bears probably haven't had a good anticipatory passer since Erik Kramer in 1995. And Kramer's time doing this in Chicago was limited due to injuries.
Trubisky never developed this ability.
Nagy thought they were seeing it happen only four games into their time together on Sept. 30, 2018 when Trubisky had the game of his life. He threw six touchdown passes and the Bears swamped Tampa Bay 48-10.
Receivers ran wide open all day and the separation they had between receivers and defenders never happened again the entire time Trubisky remained in Chicago.
This isn't to come down on Trubisky too much because it's a trait often separating the better quarterbacks from the also-rans.
Jay Cutler never had this ability. He was always a see-it, throw-it passer. When he saw the receiver coming open he would throw it, instead of anticipating the open receiver. Cutler could get away with this largely because he had such zip on the ball and a powerful arm.
Still, it isn't ideal in this West Coast style of attack and the anticipatory throw is. It's the difference between a lifetime passer rating of 85.3 like Cutler had or 87.2 like Trubisky, and passers like Matt Ryan at 94.8 or a 95.2 like Philip Rivers had.
In October of 2019, the Bears were getting ready to play the Chargers. Nagy had seen plenty of Rivers while coaching for the Chiefs but also got to coach him in the Pro Bowl one year, and his appreciation for that type of passing was obvious.
"What you see constantly is he's one of the best anticipatory passers in the NFL," Nagy said. "He throws the ball super early. I'll never forget, there was a play, I forget what year it was, but he threw a little out-and-up route to Antonio Gates that, a throw I'm not sure I've ever seen. You just sit there and watch it five times and see how early he threw it, and it was another 20 yards down field when the ball was released.
"He's able to understand defenses, what you bring him at him defensively with blitzes, dropping guys. He's seen it all. It's experience. It's somebody that I have a lot of respect for."
It's experience which lets Dalton perform this trick immediately. His production doesn't signify he is able to do it all the time in games. He's only been above 90 twice in passer rating and his average yards per attempt of 7.1 is decent but not anything to excite anyone.
Sometimes it's the ability to know when it's actually going to be there, and when it's not, and then to go on to somewhere else in the progression. His career interception rate of 2.6% is a sign he has not always succeeded at this, but sometimes anticipatory throwing leads to this. The receiver doesn't get there, the throw comes anyway and it's sometimes picked. Rivers' career interception rate is also 2.6%.
Will Fields ever develop into that type of anticipatory passer? That definitely will take time but Dalton might not be the passer in this regard in games who is able to do this in practices.
They'll be counting at least immediately on experience making a difference.
"And now I think what we're seeing is you see a guy right now in practice with Andy, that he's been doing this for nine or 10 years, and so when he calls a play and he sees a short motion coming in and the guy's going to quick tick and then hit it on a shallow cross, he times it up just right," Nagy said. "Well, Justin has never done that before. This is the first time he's doing that.
"So when he brings a guy in short motion, quick ticks it and hits him on the run, the timing might be a little bit off. And so Justin just needs more reps. Well, Andy has done that for nine years. Andy has seen rotation and he's seen post-snap stuff, and I think football wise they're growing at really good paces right now, but they're also helping each other out, which is going to make us better."
Fields was able to do some anticipating at Ohio State. Some of his better patterns to work, as noted by scouts, were the skinny post and slants that are essential in the West Coast. Those work best when they're anticipatory throws.
What Fields has that Dalton doesn't is when this all breaks down, he'll use 4.4-second speed in the 40 to get away from the pass rush and make the broken play or adjusted play downfield on a see-and-throw situation, or take off on his own to gain yardage.
At some point in the future, it will be up to Nagy, Lazor and quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo to decide whether it's worth playing someone who does this instead of someone who might momentarily be a better anticipatory passer.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
