Deep Dive Shows Even Softer Bears Schedule
A deeper look at what the Bears face in terms of a schedule this year produces more reason for optimism.
It's not the "let's get our Super Bowl tickets now," kind of optimism or even the kind to stir thoughts about getting their ownership rights back from Aaron Rodgers.
However, there are opportunities on a weekly basis for them to be more competitive despite being a rebuilding team.
They face the eighth-easiest schedule based on last year's records (.471) but it's even easier when you look at it based on season projections.
Sharp Football Analysis does a schedule ranking based on over/under win expectations for teams. Based on that, only three teams have easier schedules than the Bears.
On a weekly basis and in terms of matchups, it's even friendlier. Here's why.
Defenses Face Weaker Passing Games
The Bears have only seven games against quarterbacks who made two Pro Bowls. Any quarterback can get lucky and be in a Pro Bowl because they had one good season and someone who made the Pro Bowl pulled out of the game. Mitchell Trubisky made it that way when he had his career-best season in 2018.
Last year the Bears defense had 12 games when it faced a starting quarterback who made at least two Pro Bowls and that's a more accurate measure of a better passer. It explains, in part, why their passer rating against was so bad at 103.3, worst in the league.
The changes in personnel and system this year make comparisons difficult but it doesn't hide the fact that those quarterbacks will still be of a much lower quality overall than those they faced in the 2021 season.
Offense Faces Weak Run Defenses
The Bears have only four games against defenses ranked in the top four at stopping the run and only one that was higher than eighth last year. They have seven games against teams that were 22nd or worse against the run.
The idea with this offensive system in Green Bay was run-based with an emphasis on play-action passing. It sounds like offensive coordinator Luke Getsy wants to do the same thing to get David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert rolling.
"So if you can run the ball, that helps you in your play-pass game," Getsy said. "The hardest part of this game is dropping back to pass. Plain and simple, that's the hardest thing to do in this league, so if you don't have to do that as often, you've got a chance."
They won't have to do it as often if they put together a strong running attack and are facing a group of teams with problems stopping the run.
The effect of a better running game can permeate the entire team. It can mean less possession time for opponents and more mistakes on offense made by opponents as they try to deal with the pressure of less time or of trailing in games. It can mean the Bears defense is on the field less time.
None of this is easy to achieve, of course. They're trying to piece together an offensive line right now. Their line last year didn't exactly plow the road when it came to setting up the running attack. They did finish 14th running it, so they were in the top half of the league. But that included 420 yards rushing from Justin Fields and their running backs were only able to average 3.8 yards an attempt. The running attack, itself, was ranked only 21st in yards per attempt.
So they have work to do at running it but the opportunity should be there to take advantage of defenses traditionally weaker against the run, and then use this in the play-action game.
Favorable Road/Home Matchups
The old line about needing to go .500 on the road and win all year home games is a bit simplistic. Not many teams can win all their home gammes.
It's the road where it really gets tough in the NFL but the Bears have some of their weakest opponents in road games and they play nine games at home this year with the benefit of the crowd. Last year they had only eight home games.
It's not going to be easy playing road games at Dallas and New England, and never is against Green Bay, but playing road games against the Giants, Falcons, Jets and Lions gives them a fighting chance of getting near .500 or better on the road.
The best part of their schedule, besides the occasional Jets or Texans matchup, is they own the home field edge in four of their last five games. If they can get to that stretch with a respectable record, anything could happen.
When the Bears were at their best, no one like coming to Soldier Field when the weather got cold and the crowd noisy.
If the Bears take advantage of those other possible advantages, then this one could really mean something at season's end.
Chicago Bears 2022 Schedule
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 11: 49ers, Noon, FOX TV
Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 18: At Packers, 7:20 p.m., NBC
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 25: Texans, noon, CBS
Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 2: At N.Y. Giants, noon, FOX
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 9: At Vikings, noon, FOX
Week 6: Thursday, Oct. 13, Commanders, 7:15 p.m., Prime Video
Week 7: Monday, Oct. 24, At Patriots, 7:15 p.m., ESPN
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 30, At Cowboys, noon, FOX
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 6, Dolphins, noon, CBS
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 13, Lions, noon, FOX
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 20, At Falcons, noon, FOX
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 27, At Jets, noon, FOX
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 4, Packers, noon, FOX
Week 14: BYE WEEK
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 18, Eagles, noon, FOX
Week 16: Saturday, Dec. 24, Bills, noon, CBS
Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 1 At Lions, noon, FOX
Week 18: Sunday, Jan. 8, Vikings, TBD, TBD
Preseason
Week 1: Saturday, Aug. 13, Chiefs at Bears, Noon, FOX
Week 2: Thursday, Aug. 18 at Seahawks, 7 p.m., ESPN
Week 3: Saturday, Aug. 27 at Browns, 6 p.m., FOX
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