A Process for Bears to Stay with Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings seem to possess all of the weapons.
They can throw to Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and a deep wide receiver group, or two tight ends, or Kirk Cousins can simply hand it to Dalvin Cook or dump it down to him. Yards and points follow.
Nevertheless, here they were about to become an international embarrassment last week. They were a double-doink away from overtime against a New Orleans Saints team with Andy Dalton at quarterback and without running back Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas as well as the offensive genius of Sean Payton.
They hit their season high of 28 points against the Detroit Lions, who are now able to outscore the NBA team in their own town but give up points like there's a shot clock.
Obviously there are ways for weaker teams to beat the Vikings, because the Lions and Saints almost did it and a better team in Philadelphia made it look easy.
Here are the three keys for a Bears road upset of the Minnesota Vikings.
1. Possess the Ball
It doesn't matter how it happens, although the running game has to be a big part of any team piling up possession time. When you're third in rushing like the Bears are even with your starting running back missing almost two games, it should be part of it.
The Lions had the ball 34:04 to the Vikings' 25:56 when they lost 28-24. They ran it 35 times against the Vikings defense. The Eagles ran it 34 times and piled up 36:14 of possession time to the Vikings' 23:46. They were able to destroy the Vikings 24-7 because not all of their possession time came out of the ground game. They also threw for 333 yards.
Kirk Cousins is not a quarterback who handles pressure well. It doesn't necessarily mean pressure in the form of the pass rush, although that can be the case. Leaving him with fewer possessions exerts pressure on the Minnesota offense.
Bears running backs don't need to be the lone source of running the ball. Minnesota's linebacker pursuit isn't the greatest when quarterbacks run. Justin Fields can turn third downs into first downs and keep the chains and clock moving, but he needs to be wary of Harrison Smith, who has a history of coming up and hitting scrambling Bears quarterbacks late. Sometimes it even resulted in injury.
2. Take It to the Fourth Quarter
The Bears beat San Francisco by hanging around in the game into the second half, then seizing it in the stormy fourth quarter. They won the game over Houston late in the fourth quarter.
They have been at their best in the second half of games. They almost got back into the game with Green Bay in the second half, if not for their strange fourth-down play call at the goal line. Despite their ineptitude last week, they stayed within a TD and two-point conversion until what they thought would be their final possession. Then Velus Jones Jr. muffed it away.
The Bears believe their conditioning from Matt Eberflus' HITS principle has been a big factor in allowing them to be better closers. Whether it is or not is left to the discretion of the reader. All NFL teams condition.
However, the Bears believe this and there are two factors working in their favor later in this game. They come with a full array of pass rushers throughout the game and reps are dispersed in a way to keep them fresh at the close. More importantly, on offense the Vikings have five starters in their 30s just like the Bears had last year.
Older players tend to wear down by game's end. Chasing Fields around in a closer game can really wear a linebacker out by the final miunutes.
Part of this, too, is preventing the big-play touchdown by making the tackle. They need to be in defense with someone over the top who can make sure the Justin Jefferson 18-yard catch doesn't spring for a 65-yard touchdown. The secondary must actually wrap up and tackle, and that includes Kyler Gordon.
The longer the Vikings are forced to drive against a gap-pressure defense, the more likely Cousins gets impatient and commits a turnover. At worst, it gives them a chance to force field goals much as they did in their 33-27 win at Minneapolis in 2020.
The Bears need to do whatever they need to in order to press this late-game edge they seem to have.
3. The "T" in HITS
You'd think by now the Bears would realize the "T" in HITS principle on offense stands for taking care of the football. Likewise, the "T" on defense stands for takeaways.
In each game their defense has had takeaway opportunities. In fact, they had one last week they probably wish they didn't have because Eddie Jackson's interception on a third-down deep ball inside the 5-yard line would have served them better if it had merely been knocked down. A punt would have been preferable.
The ball was on the turf last week eight times and the Bears came away with it on half of them. That's not good enough for a team that emphasizes HITS.
In the previous game against Houston, they jarred it loose twice and came up with neither.
The winning formula against the Vikings has to include turnovers and not all of those need to come from intercepting Cousins.
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