What Bottom-Feeding Bears Offense Says of Job Security
Numbers in the NFL can be twisted to make teams seem better than they really are.
One undeniable number is a team's offensive ranking in relation to the rest of the league, and for this Bears team it says something about their chances of stopping their slide at four straight losses in time to make a playoff run.
The numbers say it's not very likely.
The Bears right now are 31st in the league in average yards per game.
For them to finish last would take a catastropic collapse, something like six more games similar to their offensive effort against the Minnesota Vikings. The New York Jets are just too bad on offense to catch in order to finish last overall.
Still, finishing in the bottom five on offense is pretty non-special and the Bears are solidly entrenched in this club. They were in this wretched group when last season ended, as well, placing 29th overall.
So where does this put their chances?
In the last decade, of the 50 teams to place in the bottom five on offense in the league only four finished the season with winning records.
Bears fans should know all about this because they had two of those teams, Lovie Smith's 2010 and 2012 teams. In fact, the 2010 Bears made the NFC championship with the 30th-ranked offense. They finished the regular season 11-5, the best record by any team in a decade that placed in the bottom five on offense.
The 2012 Bears were 10-6 and missed the playoffs, resulting in Smith's firing.
The only other teams to place in the bottom five on offense in the last decade and still post winning records were the 2017 Buffalo Bills (9-7) and the 2016 Houston Texans (9-7).
Last year there was a trend of one-sided teams with .500 or close to .500 records. The Bears (8-8), Steelers (8-8), Broncos (7-9) and Jets (7-9) all finished in the bottom five on offense, showing they certainly had decent defenses. Of course, they couldn't overcome those offenses well enough to make the playoffs.
Normally teams with bottom five offenses finish with records more like you'd expect.
This year's Bears could still finish 5-11. The smart money puts them at 7-9.
The question then would be what does this say about their future?
Does a coach with two years left on a contract deserve to be fired after one losing season in three and one division title in three?
This is rather vague, and then you'll have the COVID-19 factor to weigh into it and how it prevented an offense from taking root.
Considering the coach had a top-10 defense all three years and still does, it has to count as an argument for dismissal. Considering he fired his offensive coordinator, offensive line coach and tight ends coach the previous year and still got worse on offense only seems to make this more likely.
When the coach was initially dubbed a budding offensive genius, consecutive years of declining offensive production says plenty—especially when it included games with quarterbacks who were supposed to know the offense well enough to prevent such disasters.
Matt Nagy was coach of the year just two seasons ago, so that should mean something when the McCaskey family decides fates, right? In 2001 Dick Jauron was coach of the year and the McCaskeys allowed Jerry Angelo to fire him two years later.
Considering they would have one winning season in six under this general manager, Ryan Pace's future—with another team and likely another position—would seem settled.
There are always teams who make late charges, but these job-saving miracles need momentum. They need something building with the team to take control. In most cases this might be a new, hot quarterback or last year with Tennessee it was their running game taking over.
There is a team in the NFL right now with one of the bottom five offenses and they are in the midst of a complete turnaround like this.
The Miami Dolphins have won six of their last seven after a poor start and they rank 29th in the league on offense.
It's getting rather late for miracle turnaround candidates to get their credentials established.
So if the self-scout by Bears coaches this week turns up some "ah ha" situation or moment, they might want to figure out what it is and how to stop it. If coaches at Halas Hall have a secret weapon or a momentum changer stored somewhere in the basement of their giant, remodeled headquarters, it might be time to use it.
Jobs really could depend on it.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
