What's It Worth for Bears to Move Up?
The thought of the Bears missing out on a first-round pick while owning two second-round picks provokes thought.
Nature abhors a vacuum, as they say. With no picks in Round 1, the Bears could step up there and make sure they get one of the better receivers before the supply diminishes by trading. Or they could take a better lineman.
It will cost them to move from No. 39 in Round 2 up into Round 1.
The chart first composed by Jimmy Johnson in the early 90s during Dallas' reign supplies clues what it will cost.
The chart has been revised over the years and adjusted to modern thinking. Drafttek.com has had an accurate and updated version of this chart. It assigns point levels to each pick as an NFL executive might do in assessing what trade is worth making.
The Bears' 39th pick is worth 510 points on the chart. The last pick in Round 1 where the Lions select is worth 590 points.
So for the Bears to move up to the last pick in the first round alone would require trading their own second-round pick at 39 plus another pick or two worth 80 points. Picks worth about 80 points can be found in Round 4, but the Bears lack a fourth-round pick.
They would be forced to throw in all of their remaining picks this year from the fifth round on in order to hit the required 80 points to move up, or they could reach into 2023 like Ryan Pace used to like to do. Borrowing from the future to pay for now isn't a smart way to conduct business and a team in its first year of rebuilding would need to be pretty sold on one particular player to do this.
A team like the Bears with so few picks anyway—only six—would really be dumping its draft with a move of this type. And remember, this is only moving into the bottom of Round 1.
The Bears could trade both their second-round picks. The 48th is worth 420 points. This would, in theory, get them as high as 18th in the first round at 955 total points. They would then be able to select one of the best receivers in the draft without question, someone like Treylon Burks, Jameson Williams, Drake London or Chris Olave.
It's a pretty steep price, though, as they'd be drafting 18th and then would have only one pick at 71 in the next 130. They would come out of the draft with five picks, which is a real problem with so many roster holes to fill.
Trading their 48th pick and 71st pick would give them 655 points, which puts them in the first round but behind Green Bay's second pick at No. 29. It's questionable how much better the receivers available at 29 would be than at 39.
With the Packers also looking for receivers, the receiver the Bears want in Round 1 might be gone by No. 29, anyway. Incidentally, the 29th and 30th picks are owned by Kansas City. Ryan Pace might be able to find a willing trade partner with his old team if they did this. But, again, would it even be worthwhile?
Trading up is hazardous business. Ask former Bears GM Ryan Pace, who found a way to make it a disaster when he traded up only one spot in 2017.
Bears picks and point value
No. 39: 510 points
No.48: 420
No. 71: 235
No. 148: 30.5
No. 150: 29.8
No. 186: 15.4
Round Barriers
Bottom of Round 1: 590 points (No. 32)
Bottom of Round 2: 270 (No. 64)
Bottom of Round 3: 84 (No. 105)
Bottom of Round 4: 34.5 (No.143)
Bottom of Round 5: 18.2 (No. 179)
Bottom of Round 6: 1.4 (No. 221)
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
