What .500 Record Says About Where Bears Are Headed

Just because the Bears finished .500 doesn't mean they're going to settle into a period of mediocrity, but does it necessarily mean they're headed to the Super Bowl or to last place?

A stigma attached to finishing .500 in the NFL like the Chicago Bears did last season is simply not true.

Teams finishing with as many wins as losses, like the Bears, do not necessarily get mired in ".500 hell." Nor do they always revert to losing.

This is likely the result of the NFL's system of equality, the leveling of the playing field with easier schedules and higher draft picks for losing teams.

A study of all teams finishing .500 since the realignment of NFL divisions took effect in 2002 shows the Bears have about as good of a chance to bounce back with a winning record next season as they do of falling backward into a double-digit loss season like those they experienced throughout the John Fox era.

The best way to put it: Anything could happen.

Of the 57 teams finishing .500 since the league's last realignment, 38.6% came back with a winning record the next season while 36.8% reverted to double-digit losses. Only nine, or 16% remained at .500. Five teams dropped from 8-8 to 7-9.

Although 38.6% came back with winning records, it doesn't mean they were competing in the playoffs.

Five of the 22 teams to come back from .500 and post a winning record did not make the playoffs, including Lovie Smith's 2011 Bears team. The next year those Bears went 10-6, missed the playoffs and Smith got fired.

Of the teams finishing .500, 29.8% bounced back to make the playoffs, 21% came back to win their division and four teams made the Super Bowl and two won it.

The Bears' own history suggests anything can happen, as well. They've only finished .500 four times before last season. Once they came back with the 10-6 record and missed the playoffs in 2012 and then Lovie Smith was fired, as was mentioned. Another time they dropped to 5-11 under Marc Trestman and he was fired after the 2014 season. 

Another time they went 7-7 in 1968, and the following year were 1-13, the worst record in franchise history. 

But the other time they were .500 was in 1983 when they went the other extreme. They came back with a division title at 10-6 in 1984, and it started a run of six division titles in seven years and the Super Bowl XX Lombardi Trophy.

As far as how it all applies to these Bears, one of the two teams since realignment to win the Super Bowl following a .500 season was the 2007 New York Giants.

The good news for the Bears?

The other team since realignment to bounce back from .500 to win the Super Bowl the next year was the 2009 New Orleans Saints.

They had a guy in their front office as pro scouting director named Ryan Pace. 

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