Offensive Free Agent Turnover Forecasted
A year ago the big Bears debate centered around signing Allen Robinson to a contract extension or giving him the franchise tag.
They chose franchise tag because they thought enough of him to warrant a deal at 120% of what they paid him in 2020, or $18 million. They didn't think enough to commit long term to $20 million or more a year.
A new general manager, a new coaching staff, a new offensive system, different priorities and a need to restructure their salary cap for their new future course all combine to make Robinson's return seem less likely.
New GM Ryan Poles has no allegiances to players the way former GM Ryan Pace did. It's a results-driven league and definitely one with a short memory.
Here's how Robinson and other Bears unrestricted free agents on offense project to fit for 2022 in a new offense one month out from the beginning of the free agency frenzy.
Going, Going, Gone
Allen Robinson II
The market for him could be somewhat diminished based on Robinson's decline in 2021. There were numerous reasons for his productivity drop, like COVID-19 and a hamstring injury, change in the way the offense tried to use him and possibly quarterback Justin Fields not being connected enough to a veteran receiver or the offense as a rookie.
None of that matters. What matters now is the situation going forward and it has changed with Luke Getsy running a new offense and Poles calling personnel shots.
The first year is a good jumping off point for a team connected to veteran free agents who they didn't bring in when they want their own vision for the team's future. Robinson is only 28 but committing so much of their future salary cap to one position when a younger player who would be in place developing along with the quarterback can take up less cap space and would be more desirable. Fields also has four years left until his first contract has expired. Wouldn't they want two young players learning together within the offense going forward? By the time Fields hits his stride, it could be a case where Robinson is out-earning his output.
Robinson had Bears lows of 101 yards after the catch, catches (38), yards after the catch (10.8), touchdowns (1), and catch percentage (57.6%). It didn't help his cause missing last offseason because he was a franchise player as such not participating in voluntary team work. He never got on the same page with any of the Bears quarterbacks, let alone Fields. His high was six catches with Andy Dalton for the opener but only for 35 yards. His biggest game was easily the four-catch, 68-yard effort with Pittsburgh and he caught only eight more passes for 71 yards after that Nov. 8 game. Robinson likely will go on and have several great seasons elsewhere with a better passer than Fields was as a rookie, but the Bears are moving forward and his path seems to be branching in another direction.
Would his hometown of Detroit be a good place?
Flip of the Coin
Jakeem Grant
When the Bears had Cordarrelle Patterson, they wouldn't give him money like the $5 million a year they'd been paying him so he left for $3 million to go to Atlanta. The Bears could face a similar situation with another effective return man. Grant really lit up the punt return game in way no one had since Tarik Cohen's unfortunate torn ACL. He also gave glimpses of how he could be used in the passing game. Would they sign back a special teams player with explosive potential to be a bit part in the offense? He's 31 years old this season, too. What the marketplace bears bears watching.
James Daniels
If a team is unwilling to pay $18 million or more for Robinson, why would they be willing to fork out plenty for a starting guard coming out of his rookie contract? The entire question with Daniels could revolve around the cash. Spotrac.com has assigned a market value of $7.3 million per year for Daniels, which the Bears could definitely afford. Brad Biggs of the Tribune quoted an unnamed agent saying Daniels could easily fetch $12 million per year. Agents will say the darnedest things when free agency is approaching. Pro Football Focus split the difference and says $10 million per year. PFF calls him the fifth best guard available in free agency.
Former Bears center Olin Kreutz offered a unique thought during the season on NBC Sports Chicago postgame coverage when he said they should sign a top-level free agent tackle like Terron Armstread, move Teven Jenkins to right tackle and put right tackle Larry Borom at Daniels' old right guard spot.
Bags Are Packed
Jimmy Graham
One of the reasons they couldn't afford Kyle Fuller last year was Ryan Pace's infatuation with Graham, who did produce nine TD catches in 2020. Nonetheless, he's not coming back at age 36 with a new GM in Chicago.
Andy Dalton
Another player overpaid by Pace and in his case he got two years worth of money for one year and six starts. Great money if you can make it. And he'll have to make it elsewhere in 2022.
Jason Peters
Nagy had a past tie to Peters from his Eagles days and it was part of the reason they looked to a 39-year-old veteran to supply starts after rookie Jenkins' back surgery. At 40, he'd be trying to do what Andrew Whitworth did if he came back in 2022 and even as the best Bears blocker in 2021 it doesn't make him part of the youth movement a new regime needs moving forward.
Germain Ifedi
A versatile player who didn't excel but didn't hurt them much, Ifedi would be a nice backup at guard and tackle. They paid only $4.25 million for him last year and if they retained him at a lesser cost it would be worthwhile, but the drawback with him is he might not fit the wide zone blocking scheme they're planning to use. He seems more ideally suited to inside zone blocking.
Elijah Wilkinson
A very limited veteran. If he wasn't at right tackle, he wasn't in a comfort zone it seemed. They need more line versatility.
Damien Williams
They never really pulled out of him what they'd hoped due to injuries last season and now with the Kansas City style of attack Nagy used gone there is no need for bringing him back.
Marquise Goodwin
One of the players who has been schemed out. The only reason the Bears brought him in was they needed those smaller, burner receivers to help open up the secondary for yards after the catch. Nagy was looking or his own Tyreek Hill. Of course Goodwin wasn't that, and he wasn't even much of a contributor with 20 catches.
Damiere Byrd
While he showed a little more versatility than Goodwin, he was brought in or essentially the same reason and there is no need for receivers of his type in the new offense. Bigger and fast would be better. Someone willing to block in both the running game and passing game is a prerequisite.
Jesse James
He had Justin Fields' confidence at first because the two worked together in the preseason with the subs, but after that he seemed to be lost through the cracks and had career lows of eight targets and seven receptions. The Bears might want to move on. They need someone who is a good blocking tight end to help make the running attack work in this new offense the way the Packers seemed to flourish with ancient Marcedes Lewis blocking. As a receiver, James hasn't had more than 16 catches since 2018.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
