Cole Kmet Has the Trends in His Favor

Unlike George Kittle, few tight ends taken in the last four rounds over the last five drafts have put up big numbers in their first two years but Cole Kmet has some trends in his favor as a second-round pick.

The narrative on Cole Kmet from the analytical crowd is the jury remains out.

Few seem impressed by his ability to catch 22 of his 28 passes in the final seven weeks of the season, and they point to his lack of production early.

Regardless of this, Kmet seems poised to make the biggest leap forward of all players drafted by the Bears in 2020.

It would be difficult for Darnell Mooney to make a huge leap forward as his production already was high for a first-year player taken in the fifth round. With Allen Robinson still in Chicago for the time being, and Tarik Cohen back this year, the number of targets for Mooney could remain about the same or decrease slightly.

If Mooney makes a big leap, yards per catch seems the most likely area. 

However, it's Kmet who could vault ahead in sheer number of catches because he really didn't get started until the season's second half. His final seven games projected over 16 games would have brought him to 50 receptions.  

Kmet averaged only 23.6 plays over the first nine games when he had six receptions and 55.7 plays over the final seven when he had 22 receptions.  

Factor in the normal jump in production by tight ends chosen in the first three rounds from their rookie year to the second year, and he could really do damage. 

There were 25 tight ends drafted over the last five years in the first three rounds and 18 of them had better production in their second year than they did as rookies, while six failed to progress. One of those who regressed was former Bears tight end Adam Shaheen, the first second-round tight end Bears GM Ryan Pace selected.

The average increase for those tight ends from Year 1 to Year 2 was 12.7 receptions. 

The selection of Kmet didn't meet with universal approval from critics, who thought the Bears could have had the same type of player on Day 3 of the draft.

In general, it's assumed by many that tight ends taken on Day 3 can be just as effective as those chosen in Rounds 1-3.

This couldn't be further from the truth. The George Kittles of the world are rare.

Over the last five drafts, 48 tight ends were selected on the final day of the draft and only four of them had more receptions than Kmet did as a rookie. Of those four, only Kittle made more receptions in Year 2 than as a rookie. 

Of the 48 tight ends taken in five years from Rounds 4-7, there were only 25 more receptions made in Year 2 than in Year 1 for entire the group. This includes Kittle's increase by 45 receptions to 88. 

 Obviously, tight ends taken on Day 3 leave much to be desired. 

So Ryan Pace applied the right logic in drafting Kmet in Round 2 considering the Notre Dame standout was widely regarded as the draft's best tight end by almost everyone and certainly in the top 2 by everyone. 

Natural progression within the Matt Nagy offensive system can account for more improvement.

"Right now, after being a year in the offense and kind of understanding what coach Nagy and (offensive coordinator Bill) Lazor are kind of doing with this offense, I'm a lot more comfortable with it," Kmet said. I'm stronger. I feel like I'm quicker and faster right now. Just a lot of confidence going in with the offense and in myself."

The one problem Kmet had was getting yardage downfield. Playing the Y-tight end or in-line spot didn't help in this regard, but it doesn't have to anchor him to the line. Plenty of in-line tight ends catch passes and gain yardage running afterward. 

"Just looking to kind of hit downfield passes, things like that, getting the tight end involved that way, doing things along those lines," Kmet said of his goals for the year.

While most of the tight ends taken the last five years on Days 1 and 2 had more receptions in their second year, this wasn't true about their yards after the catch. Only seven of the 25 had better averages per catch in their second seasons. 

So nothing is guaranteed for Kmet. Any such improvement could depend on the quarterback and where they can get the ball to the tight end. 

Kmet will advance as far as Andy Dalton or Justin Fields will let him.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven