Why Matt Nagy Has Built Up Hot Seat Immunity
Every year when writers reach a lull early in the NFL season, the first "Hot Seat" stories start to surface.
These aren't stories about who is actually on the hot seat or even someone has sources who say this, they're merely speculation based on past records and situations.
Such articles rarely stop in these days of the constant internet barrage.
Barely had the calendar turned when Bleacher Report had one out with Matt Nagy's job future under scrutiny. He was among their coaches on the hot seat for 2020.
There have been many other such lists since then.
Matt Nagy's job security is far greater than many would suspect if they read those articles.
Those who say otherwise are doing only a perfunctory glance at the team's record or statistics and lumping him into this class.
Basically, they don't know what they're talking about.
There are no existing factors placing Nagy onto a hot seat, only factors which could occur in the future and eventually could put him there.
The greatest and possibly only factor which could lead to Nagy being on the hot seat is if the Bears fail to put together an offense incapable of not hurting his defense.
This doesn't mean a top 10 offense or one dominant in a particular area: rushing, passing or scoring. It just means one effective enough at holding onto the ball without turning it over, and one which produces in the red zone.
The 2018 offense was effective enough to win a division. It didn't put the Bears near the top of any statistical categories, ranked only 21st overall and 21st in passing.
So unless Nagy's offense is a complete failure, somewhere near the bottom of every category again like last year, it's difficult to see how his job status would be affected.
Even then, there are clear and obvious reasons he'd be retained and here are the chief reasons:
1. Ownership Loyalty
The McCaskey ownership family is a very loyal group to coaches who show they can win. Coaches who lose even get leeway as long as they've shown in the past they have the ability to coach a winning team.
The McCaskeys have always believed in the street credit approach. A little bit of success can go a long way.
Lovie Smith went through two losing seasons and another non-playoff year after making the Super Bowl, but they stuck with him. They built up a loyalty the same way with Dick Jauron and he went through one playoff year and four losing seasons before they fired him.
Even Dave Wannstedt received this. He made the playoffs in his second year, then they kept him around through four more years of misery.
The patience was thin with Marc Trestman as he lasted two years, but he didn't make the playoffs with a veteran team perceived as having this ability, and he completely lost the team at a time when the general manager was also getting axed. The 2014 season was utter chaos, from the coaching staff to the players.
When a team makes the playoffs only six times since 1991, and a coach has one of those playoff berths, there needs to be some leeway.
Only one Chicago Bears coach in 100 years of football has won 20 games in his first two season. It wasn't George Halas, Mike Ditka or Lovie Smith.
It was Matt Nagy.
And he's being fired after his first losing season?
2. The Alternative Scapegoats
If it does turn south for the Bears, there are already available scapegoats besides Nagy.
There's Mitchell Trubisky. He always seems available for scapegoating.
There's one other ready scapegoat and it's general manager Ryan Pace. If the Bears fail again, the onus is far more likely to fall on Pace than Nagy.
Pace's contract expires after 2021.
Nagy had nothing to do with bringing in Mitchell Trubisky but he had to call plays for two years with a passer who was below average. Nagy didn't trade away two third-round picks and a fourth-rounder to move up one spot in the draft and take Trubisky, draft picks that could have been used for a tight end, wide receiver or adequate offensive linemen.
In general, it would be difficult to say Nagy has been supplied with a talent level high enough across the board to build an offense to succeed.
3. The Contract
The McCaskeys had to eat a year of pay to John Fox when he was fired.
They ate cash when they fired Marc Trestman after only two years. Nagy has two more years left on his contract after 2020.
They are not dining on another two-year helping of cash after consuming so much in lost cash from past failed coaching regimes.
Money talks.
4. COVID-19
How do you serious put a coach on the hot seat when he has to bring in a new quarterback and try to do it without benefit of offseason work because of this natural disaster?
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
