Why the Lean Should Be Toward Justin Fields
The great debate rages on among Bears fans. It's creating a civil war of sorts.
On one side are supporters of Justin Fields, those who chanted at the regular-season finale to bring back their quarterback.
On the other side are those who have seen Detroit's passing game, Minnesota's passing game and now Jordan Love stepping up to ignite Green Bay's passing attack, and wonder: "What happened to much-promised Bears passing game?" They want the first pick of the 2024 NFL Draft used for Caleb Williams. They feel Fields failed or former offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and former coach Matt Nagy failed Fields thereby ruining him.
The bickering on social media has reached epic proportions.
It comes down to one question: Is it worth taking Williams No. 1 or could they take the North and not give it back and win a Super Bowl much faster by keeping Fields and building around him with all the extra picks they'll get for the first pick.
What Exactly Is a Successful QB?
Numbers cruncher Dave Kluge this week on "X" revealed 30 years worth of data showing it's worthwhile to take a quarterback No. 1 overall because they tend to be more "successful" than QBs taken at other spots. He defined success as 4,000 yards, 70% completions, 30-plus TDs and 80 starts or more.
No offense but maybe it's too many decades of watching this garbage. To me, success is defined as winning the Super Bowl.
Who cares about statistics, Pro Bowls that they don't even play anymore or even 80 starts?
Many Bears fans saw them lose a Super Bowl or lose an NFC championship game after winning a playoff game. They've not seen 4,000 yards passing but if it occurs without winning the Super Bowl it's like the Golden State Warriors claiming they were the greatest team of all time because they broke the Bulls' single-season victory mark. Ooops, the Bulls won the title and those Warriors didn't and that's what matters.
Do the Bears want to throw away a chance for multiple players on the flip of a coin basically, with success terms being some Pro Bowls?
This choice about No. 1 happens every year for teams, or at least every year when the consensus No. 1 player available is a quarterback.
A look back at the quarterbacks chosen first overall recently would suggest it's more worthwhile to take the picks and trade down. You don't need to go back as far as Kluge's stats went because the game is played differently by the time one decade expires, let alone a generation-plus.
Percentages say they're not going to get their Super Bowl winner at No. 1, even if all the scouts love what they see on film of Williams. And believe me, if you look at the film, it does show Williams doing some totally ridiculous things against some questionable opposition. So it's easy to get on that bandwagon.
Real Success Is Winning the Super Bowl
What history says, though, is they're taking too big of a risk by counting on the quarterback alone to win a Super Bowl. They can put so many good players on the field with the extra picks that they can make it so any one of several QBs could win it for them, if not Fields.
There have been 10 quarterbacks chosen No. 1 overall since Matthew Stafford came into the league in 2009. This is a good cutoff point because he is the last No. 1 overall pick who was a quarterback that is still playing in the league.
The other nine quarterbacks chosen No. 1 overall since then are Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young.
Between all 10 No. 1s, they have one Super Bowl win by Stafford, four Super Bowl appearances and one MVP by Cam Newton. They have an overall record as starters of 447 wins, 434 losses and five ties over 72 total seasons played.
Combined, they have a career passer rating of 89.92 with 19,897 completions in 31,368 attempts (63.4%), 229,342 yards with 1,438 touchdowns and 754 interceptions. They have averaged 7.31 yards per pass attempt.
These were the prime picks, the top dogs, the quarterbacks everyone wanted and these were the results: a little over .500 in wins, not even a 90 passer rating. Fields is already close to playing at those averages and it was without a team that had a defense. Supposedly, now they have one.
There have been plenty of quarterbacks drafted since Stafford who have not been taken No. 1 and they produced better numbers, more wins, more Lombardi Trophies, more MVPs.
To Trade or Not to Trade
So would it not be better to trade the pick and accept huge compensation in return so they can further fortify their roster with players from the first three rounds over the next two or three drafts, and perhaps even receive a player at another position who they could really use?
They have real needs at center, defensive tackle, defensive end, wide receiver, and possibly safety.
During the postseason press conference, GM Ryan Poles was asked if it was possible to select a quarterback in the draft and have them on the roster with Fields.
Poles danced around the issue, saying they were considering all possibilities. The truth is, you wouldn't want the first pick of the draft on the team along with Fields. It's tough, no doubt. It can lead to all sorts of bad feelings in the quarterback room if not the locker room, especially for Fields.
Look at what happened in Green Bay, at least initially, as Aaron Rodgers carried a grudge against the Packers for drafting Jordan Love. It was nothing against Love personally, and apparently Rodgers was pretty good at teaching Love some things as the current Packers starter has shown to be more than capable.
Feelings were hurt unnecessarily for a while but eventually it subsided as Rodgers asserted his dominance for a few more years.
A quarterback chosen first is supposed to start right away in this NFL, but that's usually because the team with the QB drafted first is going to a terrible team and lacks an adequate starter. The last No. 1 who didn't start right away was Mayfield in 2018. He got in after a few weeks.
Williams would not be going to a horrible Bears team. They seem to be rising.
Fields as starter with a backup quarterback taken later in Round 1 would make a little more sense, and if Fields suddenly found the winning touch he hasn't had they could even trade the quarterback selected this year or let him sit and learn like Love did in Green Bay. If Fields doesn't improve, they've got a replacement on hand.
Most experts think they couldn't get a first-rounder for Fields, so holding on to Fields at worst comes down to throwing away a second-round pick. They threw away a second-rounder on Chase Claypool. They could afford to throw it away in order to be certain Fields is or isn't the guy.
Money isn't an issue if you keep two first-rounders on the roster, at least in 2024 it won't be. It would be even less of an issue if the quarterback drafted this year wasn't the first pick because that first selection does carry a slightly greater cash consideration.
The Bears have been so poor over the years at finding quarterbacks, wouldn't it make more sense to just start collecting first-rounders until one finally proves worthwhile?
If they haven't seen enough improvement from Fields to warrant retaining him, they could always trade him after 2024. Of course, he's not going to get them very much in return then because he'd be done with the cheaper years of his contract then after four years to prove himself.
The Lean
The cap space consideration that makes drafting Williams is worthwhile. They can easily afford to keep building the roster three to four more years while they use a QB drafted first this year.
Then again, with the three or four more picks and maybe a player and some more free agents this year with their big stack of cap cash, they may not need to keep building.
All of this is a good reason why the Bears went out and interviewed a coach who knows Williams well, Kliff Kingsbury, for their offensive coordinator post. They need to be totally convinced on Williams.
It had to be a trip as much about the player as about the coaching position.
Count all of this as a slight lean toward the Fields and taking the extra picks.
There's still plenty of time for Williams' supposed brilliance to shine through and win the day, though.
All of this is something to ponder while posting your insults via social media for the other side.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
