Balancing Out Effect for Darnell Mooney
While it's true Darnell Mooney's production increased in 2021 over a strong rookie performance, the situation with Allen Robinson played a huge part in this.
Now Mooney becomes No. 1 Bears receiver in the eyes of many, even if fantasy football owners do not regard him as a WR-1 type.
Mooney's receptions stats soared in 2021 while Robinson limped through five to six weeks of being bothered by a hamstring, then later was hit hard enough by COVID-19 to lose 10 pounds.
The Bears had to throw it to someone without having Robinson available or full strength. Mooney filled in better than anyone could have expected, just as he did in 2019 when he took the No. 2 spot from Anthony Miller.
So this year without Robinson logic dictates even bigger catch numbers for Mooney?
It doesn't.
Mooney's reception total figures to level off or climb only slightly even while his yards per catch climb or even skyrocket, depending largely on Justin Fields' progress.
1. Allen Robinson Is History
There will be no effect from Allen Robinson's absence on Mooney one way or other in the passing game largely because that already occurred last year.
The Bears moved on during last season, Robinson just didn't know it yet. Defenses aren't stupid. They stopped any cheating toward Robinson after seeing he no long was the prime target.
In games when both receivers played last year, Mooney was targeted 93 times and Robinson 60.
It's perceived by some how this resulted from Justin Fields not seeing Robinson as open when veteran passers did. Robinson has a reputation for contested catches and requires a much smaller window of opportunity, and throwing it to him in those instances requires confidence a rookie passer would lack.
There is sound logic to this line of thinking but when Fields wasn't playing and both Robinson and Mooney were on the field together, veteran QBs Andy Dalton and Nick Foles targeted Mooney 44 times and Robinson 25 times. Percentage-wise, the veterans targeted Robinson even less than Fields did (39.2% to 36.3%). It wasn't much different, but it just speaks to how insignificant Robinson became all last year while Mooney had become the man regardless of the passer.
So there will be no adjustment for Mooney. He's been playing for virtually an entire year like the No. 1 receiver. Robinson being gone has no effect one way or the other.
2. More Contributors
Mooney will have more competition for catches from teammates this year than he got from Robinson last year. This might sound bold considering all of the criticism directed at GM Ryan Poles for not bringing in more quality receivers, but it's true.
Robinson only caught 38 passes. The injuries helped take him out of sync with the offense even when he was available. When he came back from COVID he seemed physically diminished, and who could blame him after the weight loss.
Who did Fields have to throw it to if he didn't have Robinson, or when Robinson played a diminished level? He had Cole Kmet in Year 2, and Kmet figures to be better in Year 3. He had Marquise Goodwin, who specializes at finding and in battling injuries—he did it again last year. There was Damiere Byrd, who was largely ignored early and came on later. Neither one of those two reached 30 catches. Oh, and then there was the occasional Jimmy Graham sighting.
Now Byron Pringle is the receiver who figures immediately as the alternate target. Pringle had 42 catches playing less than half the offensive snaps last year in Kansas City. He's an obvious upgrade over Goodwin, who was 30 years old in 2021. Byrd is a 5-9, 180-pound receiver who lacks Pringle's versatility in an offense designed for receivers who are versatile. In fact, Pringle is an upgrade over the Robinson who was on the Bears roster last year as 38 catches and 410 yards indicates.
Jones might be a rookie but coaches appear determined to give him a role right away rather than let him dip his toe in the water. As a stronger player with excellent speed, he figures to command targets. Plenty of them figure to be low-risk passes at the line or even behind it as they try to maximize his ability to run after the reception.
David Moore is a candidate for backup receiver like Goodwin and Byrd last year and he has had 34 catches or more three times. Another receiver, Tajae Sharpe, had 41 catches as a rookie. So the potential is there for the backup types to be far greater contributors than last year's were.
They did have Jakeem Grant last year, but they only threw him 15 passes and he caught nine.
Both backup tight ends James O'Shaughnessy and Ryan Griffin made more catches in three of the last four years than Graham made last year. The third tight end last year was Jesse James, and he had virtually no role with eight targets.
Mooney will be the main focus but there are other possibilities who rate better choices for Fields than last year's group presented.
3. The Offense
If the attack works the way offensive coordinator Luke Getsy wants it to, there will be fewer targets to go around. He wants an offense based on the run. Matt Nagy thought of the run as filler between passes. More runs naturally mean fewer pass attempts.
Beyond run-pass preference, the type of attack being put in has worked better for yards after the catch than Nagy's offense, which was near or at the bottom of the league in this statistics three of his four years.
It's already visible in plays at OTAs. They get the ball to receivers in the open under coverage or to the side more often. The end result of this can be bigger plays, more yards after the catch and per attempt. Bigger plays should mean fewer offensive plays and that limits the number of pass attempts.
The emphasis on running also means play-action passing, which also can lead to bigger plays.
Another factor for reducing targets in this offense is simply the fact it's new. There will be less efficiency and more trouble in Year 1. There will be more sacks, more times where the offense crumbles until they get it all down.
4. Pass Blocking
Fields might be running for his life, at least early. The pass attempts might not be there as he scrambles repeatedly. Much depends on the solution at right guard and whether the two young tackles pass block effectively, whether it's Larry Borom and Teven Jenkins, Braxton Jones and Borom or Jones and Jenkins.
5. Justin Fields
Still young and in his first year with this offense, Fields will not always see windows of opportunity in secondaries the way a veteran can. He might miss the chance to get the ball to Mooney the way it was thought he might be missing chances to get it to Robinson last year before it became obvious Robinson wasn't the same receiver he had been.
It's easy to look at the Packers offense and see Aaron Rodgers throwing enough for Green Bay to finish eighth in passing and 18th in rushing. That's Rodgers.
A young quarterback like Fields is more likely to stick closer to script and the run will figure in prominently.
Besides, Green Bay passed as much as it did because it had Davante Adams. The Packers offense also figures to balance out this year with Adams gone.
For the Bears, more balance means fewer or simliar reception totals by Mooney.
Darnell Mooney at a Glance
Vitals: 5-foot-11, 173 pounds, third season.
Career: 142 receptions on 238 targets, 1,686 yards, 8 TDs, 11.9 yards per catch.
2021: Made 81 catches on 140 targets, 1,055 yards, 4 TDs, 13.0 ypc. Also rushed six times for 32 yards and a TD.
The Number: 3. Mooney's 142 receptions in two seasons ranks him No. 3 in career receptions from his draft class, behind only Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb.
2022 Projection: 83 receptions, 1,145 yards, 13.8 ypc., 6 TDs.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
