New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Game Preview and Prediction
Unlike some teams who already have wrapped up playoff berths, the Buffalo Bills won't have the option of resting their key regulars when they finish their regular season Sunday by hosting the New York Jets.
This is because the AFC East title remains undecided. The Bills (10-6) can wrap it up with a win or a loss by New England (10-6) to the Miami Dolphins. But since both games kick off at the same time, the Bills are going to have to go full metal jacket to make sure they can wrap up the division and at least one home game in the playoffs.
The Bills could finish with a seeding as high as No. 2 if Kansas City (11-5) falls at Denver and Cincinnati (10-6) falls at Cleveland.
The most likely scenario, however, is the fourth seed, which would mean a home game the following week against the fifth seed.
Here's a closer look at the matchup:
THE BASICS
Game: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills.
Date: Jan. 9, 4:25 p.m. (EST).
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.
Records: Jets (4-12); Bills (10-6).
Betting info: Bills by 16. Over/under, 40½.
TV: CBS.
ABOUT THE JETS
Not much has gone right for this hapless organization which this year has seen players take trips to the injured reserve list an NFL-high 62 times this season. They enter this weekend with 15 players on injured reserve and five more on the COVID-19 reserve list.
Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson, who missed the first meeting with the Bills because of an injury, has completed just 56.7% of his passes with eight touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He owns a 3-9 record in his 12 starts
Wilson's top targets are wide receivers Jamison Crowder (50 catches, 431 yards), Braxton Berrios (46 catches, 431 yards) and Elijah Moore, a rookie who has 43 catches for 538 yards and five TDs.
However, Berrios (quad) was just placed on the injured reserve list Friday, joining Moore (quad), who's also on the COVID list. Crowder missed the previous two games with a calf injury but should be ready to go again Sunday.
The loss of Berrios, their top punt and kick returner, will impact special teams as well because he's a damn-good one, averaging 13.4 yards on punts and 30.4 yards on kickoffs, including a 102-yard TD.
Rookie Michael Carter has handled most of the rushing duties, carrying 138 times for 620 yards and four TDs. He's also a reliable weapon in the passing game with 36 catches for 325 yards.
On defense, linebackers C.J. Mosley (155 tackles, two forced fumbles, 2.0 sacks) and Quincy Williams (105 tackles, three forced fumbles, 2.0 sacks) are all over the place. They also get a great push up the middle from defensive tackles Quinnen Williams and John Franklin Myers, who are tied for the team lead in sacks with 6.0 apiece.
ABOUT THE BILLS
Quarterback Josh Allen (37 TD passes last season, 34 this season) is the only Bill in franchise history to have thrown 30-plus TD passes in back-to-back seasons and the only player in league history to throw at least 100 TD passes and rush for at least 30 TDs in his first four seasons.
Allen ranks second in the NFL this season with 40 total TDs.
His favorite target has been wide receiver Stefon Diggs (94 receptions, 1,144 yards this year), who has become the first in team history to surpass 80 catches and 1,000 yards for two straight seasons. He needs three catches against the Jets to break the league record for most receptions by a player in his first two years with a team.
Diggs and left tackle Dion Dawkins were named to the Pro Bowl this season.
Wide receivers Cole Beasley (78 catches, 662 yards), Emmanuel Sanders (42 catches, 626 yards) and Gabriel Davis (32 catches, 510 yards, six TDs) and tight end Dawson Knox (46 catches, 538 yards, nine TDs) have been productive at various points this season.
Running back Devin Singletary leads the Bills in rushing yards (782) and is averaging 4.6 yards per attempt.
Linebacker Matt Milano has a career-high with 14 tackles for a loss this season.
Safeties Micah Hyde (73 tackles, five interceptions, two fumble recoveries) and Jordan Poyer (89 tackles, five interceptions) man the back end of one of the league's elite defenses.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Poyer has allowed a QB rating of 17.4 when targeted this season. That's the lowest of any safety in the league.
INJURIES
Jets: None on active roster.
The Jets have 15 players on the injured reserve list and five on the COVID reserve list.
Bills: DE Efe Obada (ankle) is out. WR Emmanuel Sanders (knee) is doubtful.
PREDICTION
Expect a heavy dose of Michael Carter by the Jets, who are especially shorthanded on offense and special teams. Yet even if he has a big game, it should be just about impossible for the Jets to prevail in this one.
On top of that, the Bills almost certainly want it more than a team that will have a better draft position in 2022 if it finishes the season 4-13 instead of 5-12.
The Bills shouldn't have any problem taking care of business to improve their division record to 5-1 after going 6-0 last season.
Bills 27, Jets 13.
Nick Fierro is the publisher of Bills Central. Check out the latest Bills news at www.si.com/nfl/bills and follow Fierro on Twitter at @NickFierro. Email to Nicky300@aol.com.
