Top-3 Positions in Play for Broncos at Pick 15 in the Draft Revealed
The 2019 NFL regular season has come to a close. Despite the hopes of the Denver Broncos’ dwindling quickly as the team struggled to an 0-4 start out of the gates, the team closed the year on a high note, going 7-5 through the final three-quarters of the season and an outstanding 4-1 down the stretch.
While hope is high for the Broncos going into 2020 under quarterback Drew Lock, this team will be one of many organizations feeling good about their chances next year. After all, hope springs eternal in the offseason for almost every team.
The Broncos have earned the right to feel optimistic about their current direction. While of course it starts with potentially having a long-term answer at quarterback, the offense and defense all showed promising signs and direction as well to cap off the 2019 campaign.
Offensively, RB Phillip Lindsay became the first undrafted player ever to rush for 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons, TE Noah Fant set multiple franchise rookie records, Courtland Sutton emerged as a truly viable No. 1 receiver, rookie OG Dalton Risner looks like a long-term player on the Broncos’ line, and OT Garett Bolles may be turning the corner under the tutelage and leadership of Mike Munchak and Chris Kuper.
The defense may not have as many notable young standouts as the offense, but the execution and integration of the scheme under Vic Fangio have been rather remarkable given the injuries the unit suffered this season. While a number of key contributors will be hitting the free-agent market and perhaps moving on, such as Chris Harris, Jr., Shelby Harris, Derek Wolfe, and Will Parks, Fangio's defense has done an excellent job finding unheralded guys that ‘fit’ and having them play above expectations.
We saw under-the-radar guys emerge like LB Alexander Johnson, NT Mike Purcell, and OLB Jeremiah Attaochu. With Von Miller being the unquestioned leader still playing at a very high level, along the return of Bradley Chubb from an early-season injury and Justin Simmons expected to be back in 2020 via the franchise tag or long-term contract, the Broncos defense has the bones to be even better next season.
The Broncos have the talent to compete for a playoff spot in 2020, but they will need another strong offseason in free agency and the draft if they have any hope to compete with the reigning AFC West-Champion Kansas City Chiefs, who have won the Division now four straight seasons. The biggest key towards whether Denver can take the leap next season will be how the players already on the roster improve.
But with the resources the Broncos will have in both free agency and the draft, expecting a few key contributors who are not yet on the roster as the season concludes is not inconceivable. Perhaps the most intriguing player will be who the Broncos end up selecting in the first round of the 2020 draft.
Depending on who you ask, the Broncos’ victory on Sunday over the team formerly known as the Oakland Raiders was either a good or bad thing. The batted ball on the two-point conversion by Shelby Harris guaranteed the Broncos would be own pick 15 in the first round, instead of No. 10, which is where Denver would have been had the Raiders come back to win.
While five spots may not seem like a lot, the Jimmy Johnson's famous NFL Draft Pick Value Chart has the difference in the No. 10 and 15 pick as being equal to the 68th overall pick in the draft, or the No. 5 overall pick in the third round. In the end, finishing 4-1 under Lock and beating the Raiders is probably the better outcome because it gives the team momentum and belief heading into next season, which can be huge for morale and perhaps adding players in the open market, but again, it depends who you ask as to which outcome would have been better for the Broncos for the long haul.
One thing is certain, the Broncos have found their quarterback (for 2020). Lock has shown enough over his five-game sample size to warrant next season as the team’s starter. He possesses both arm talent and athleticism required to succeed in today’s league, has obtainable upside with his overall tools, and brings a certain je ne c’est quoi to the position with moxie, energy, and leadership.
As hard as it is to really articulate why having a presence at quarterback matters, Lock does seem like he just may have ‘it’. The thinkers will call for patience and a larger-sample size before dubbing Lock the next big thing, and they are likely right.
Even still, the thought of not having to use an early pick on a quarterback — because the Broncos have a quarterback worth being hopeful about — is a wonderful thing and opens up so many possibilities on draft day.
Unfortunately, for those who want a bit more certainty with their mock drafts and projected offseasons, an oxymoron if there ever was one, picking at 15 instead of 10 just makes things that much more unpredictable. If the Broncos truly didn’t foresee a situation in the 2018 draft in which Chubb fell to them at No. 5 overall, imagine the unforeseen possibilities that could happen at 15 — that is, if Denver even stays at 15 instead of trading down like they did in 2019.
The Broncos could even trade up with the excess capital they have accumulated. The fact that there are so many possibilities and different directions the team could go make it that much more intriguing and open for posturing.
Sitting at pick 15, the Broncos seem to have four general directions they may end up going in the first round; offensive tackle, wide receiver, or cornerback.
Each is dependent more so on how the draft falls than anything else, as good teams don’t pigeonhole themselves to a singular position, but stay open to a multitude of possibilities. Given how quickly needs can fluctuate in the NFL, going into the draft fixated on one position or just looking at how a rookie pick impacts 2020 in comparison to the entire duration of their rookie contract is myopic and silly.
Any draft pick, especially early selections, are more about adding a potential core player for the next four to five seasons instead of how that rookie can help fill out the depth chart in the ensuing season. Join me as I break down what the landscape might look like for Denver picking at 15.
Offensive Tackle
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Given the comments from GM John Elway and head coach Vic Fangio in the team’s end-of-season presser, it does seem safe to assume that 2017 first-rounder Garett Bolles will be starting at left tackle again in 2020. This will be much to the chagrin of many in Broncos Country, but Bolles really did play better down the stretch this season.
Bolles is relatively cheap while still on his rookie deal, and trending up, so perhaps he can continue his recent level of play heading into next season under Munchak. For left tackle, it seems the Broncos believe a bird in the hand beats two in the bush.
However, even if Bolles has ‘earned’ the starting left tackle spot for the Broncos in 2020, the same presser revealed that the Broncos will be apprehensive at best in completely relying on high-dollar free agent Ja’Wuan James to play right tackle next season. Given the eye-brow raising circumstances that surrounded James’ injury and ability to play this season, it would be shocking if Denver stood bye as a solid top of the tackle class in the Draft passed them by.
The Broncos cannot simply move on from James given his contract, as it will cost the Broncos’ $6 million more to move on from him than to keep him if they were to release him. Simply put, he’s here, he is costly, and the team cannot depend on him fully next year.
Given the talent projected in the 2020 class at offensive tackle, it would be beyond shocking if the Broncos did not take an offensive tackle with one of the five picks the team currently holds in the top-100 (if not two. because the value of offensive tackle). It's hard to say at this point who will be there at pick 15 when Denver is projected to be on the clock, but currently, it seems like that selection will be out of range for the ‘big three’ in Alabama’s Jedrick Wills, Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs, and Georgia’s Andrew Thomas.
Being more than 100 days away from draft day and so many pre-draft events are yet to take place, it’s impossible to say how it will shake out. If those three tackles are not there at pick 15, it doesn’t seem as likely Denver will take an offensive tackle.
However, there are some prospects who could rise between now until April. If they do not rise to Denver’s range, they could be prospects that Denver can target on Day 2 or even trade back into round one to obtain. Georgia’s Isaiah Wilson, Alabama’s Alex Leatherwood, TCU’s Lucas Niang, Houston’s Josh Jones, USC’s Austin Jackson, Auburn’s Prince Tega Wanogho, and Louisville’s Mekhi Becton are all players who could come in and provide much-needed depth and competition to the tackle group and be long-term starters for the Broncos.
Some could even perhaps start as a guard in year one and slide to a tackle spot in the future for the offensive line. Offensive tackle shouldn’t be viewed as ‘round one or bust’ but it shouldn’t be off the table either. If not round one, then definitely Day 2.
Wide Receiver
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The same can be said about wide receiver. Considered by many to be one of the best wide receiver draft classes to come around in a long-time, the Broncos need to add more playmaking talent to compliment Sutton and give some wiggle room as Lock grows and develops over his rookie contract. True, the likes of Tim Patrick and DaeSean Hamilton played well down the stretch, but the Broncos simply need more difference-makers to help Lock and attack opposing defenses.
Picking at 15, it is unlikely at this point that either Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy or Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb falls to Denver, especially considering that the WR-hungry teams of the Las Vegas Raiders, Indianapolis Colts, and New York Jets all pick before Denver. Still, with questions surrounding both players’ overall speed, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that one may be there for Denver at pick 15.
While neither are truly the burning speed receiver that many, such as Benjamin Allbright, have hinted at the Broncos targeting, those two might be too good to pass up when Denver is on the clock.
If the Broncos are looking for true speed at wide receiver, they could do a heck of a lot worse than Henry Ruggs III. Considered the fastest player in college football, having been clocked running a 4.25-second 40-yard dash, Ruggs would give Denver an explosive receiver that can take the top off a defense or take a quick slant to the house on any given play.
Much like a great three-point shooter in basketball, an explosive speed receiver can create space for others and give a team explosive offensive output in an instant. If Ruggs is gone by pick 15, perhaps the Broncos will consider TCU’s Jalen Reagor or Penn State’s K.J. Hamler. Neither are thought of as highly as Ruggs at this point in time, and pick 15 may be high for them, but they are two dynamic speed options for the Broncos that this offense desperately could use.
One player that many in the Denver area will be clamoring for will be Laviska Shenault, Jr. from the University of Colorado. Despite suffering a number of dings and bruises during his time in Boulder, there is little doubt that Viska possesses the talent to become one of the premier offensive playmakers in the NFL.
Listed at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, which is 30 pounds larger than Jeudy or Lamb with potentially better overall athleticism? That is very intriguing.
Given how incredible Shenault is after the catch and seeing the success of rookie Deebo Samuel in Kyle Shanahan’s West Coast Offense, it’s not hard to picture a bigger, faster, stronger version of Samuel in Laviska being an absolute difference-maker for the Broncos offense and another fan favorite.
Just like offensive tackle, though, the Broncos do not have to be wide-receiver -or-bust in round one but it would be a surprise if the team didn’t take one in the top-100. With such talents as Clemson’s Tee Higgins, LSU’s Justin Jefferson, Texas’ Devin Duvernay, Oklahoma State’s Tylan Wallace, Michigan’s Donovan Peoples-Jones, Alabama’s DeVonta Smith, and Arizona State’s Brandon Aiyuk all being possible top-100 picks if they all do declare, Denver has a chance to still walk away with a difference-maker and potential long-term core piece, even if they don’t take one early.
Furthermore, the recent success of Day 2 WRs (Courtland Sutton, Juju Smith-Schuster, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Mecole Hardman, D.K. Metcalf, Diontae Johnson, and Terry McLaurin) means a great weapon for Lock and addition to the Broncos' passing offense can be found by Denver at some point in the first three rounds.
Cornerback
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If Denver does not end up using their first-round pick on an offensive player, whether that be at offensive tackle or at wide receiver, the most-likely best player available at a position of need when Denver is on the clock will be a cornerback. Unlike the 2018 draft, which was absolutely dreadful at the top of the cornerback class, with the solid but not top-20 talents in DeAndre Baker, Byron Murphy, and Greedy Williams, Denver will very likely have a chance to add a very intriguing cornerback option at pick 15 if they do end up staying at that slot.
The odds of Ohio State’s Jeffery Okudah being on the board when the Broncos pick are very limited. Given the 6-foot-1, 200-pound cornerback has length, ball skills, incredible click-and-close, and physicality in his tackling and at the catch-point, to go along with silky-smooth hips, Okudah is extremely unlikely to make it out of the top-10, let alone out of the top-5.
However, as it currently stands, there are three other cornerbacks who very well may be worth the pick when the Broncos are due up in the draft. LSU’s Kristian Fulton has comparable agility and twitch of Okudah — if just slightly-less-so.
Fulton has not been the physical presence of Okduah but is by no means a complete liability as a tackler, showing a disdain for physicality. Fulton perhaps isn’t the best day-one zone corner, but his overall tools are incredible. Watching him match up with Ruggs III and Jeudy in that game against Alabama should make anyone a believer that Fulton can be a star corner.
If not Fulton, the Broncos could look at slightly more zone-specific players with physicality in Alabama’s Trevon Diggs or Ohio State’s Shaun Wade. Diggs, younger brother of Vikings’ star WR Stephon Diggs, is still relatively new to the cornerback position as he came to Tuscaloosa as a wide receiver.
Diggs' technique and tackling ability are still raw and it shows, but the ball skills, size, and overall athleticism are enticing. How he runs at the Combine will be huge.
While Wade was more of a nickel corner at Ohio State, the redshirt sophomore has tools to be a special player in the NFL. Possessing length, strength, versatility, and some ‘pop’ in his game when battling receivers or making tacklers, Wade projects as a versatile back-seven player with skills to play boundary corner, slot corner, or even safety. His skill-set would be extremely intriguing in Fangio's defensive scheme.
Again, though, if the Broncos do miss out on a corner at pick 15, the defense still will have a good chance to get nab a really good corner on Day 2. Of course, the further the Broncos get from the first overall pick, the lower the chance the player will be a true ‘hit’ but this is a really solid cornerback class.
TCU’s Jeff Gladney, Clemson’s A.J. Terrell, Florida’s C.J. Henderson, Virginia’s Bryce Hall, Stanford’s Paulson Adebo, and Utah’s Jaylon Johnson are all players that could be available when Denver is on the clock that could project somewhere as one of the team’s top-3 corners in 2020 and beyond. It seems inevitable that the Broncos will be losing Chris Harris, Jr., so netting a player that could project as a long-term starter at corner should absolutely be on the table.
All Bets Are Off
No one can predict the future. As anyone who goes back and checks Mock Drafts and Big Boards, from fans to analysts alike, the only conclusion that can be drawn is that nobody really knows a damn thing. Even those that are paid millions of dollars to get the draft ‘right’ seem to miss as much as they hit.
There are no guarantees, circumstances change, injuries happen, and human nature of anyone is hard to foretell. If anything, draft coverage should be viewed with the same eye as a weather forecast. There is a method to the madness, and the closer we get to the date, the more accurate the predictions can be. Still, things change.
The Broncos could end up not selecting a tackle, wide receiver, or cornerback in the first round. From defensive talents such as linebacker/slot corner/safety/back-seven chess piece Isaiah Simmons, to South Carolina’s high-upside but still a bit raw defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw, to Iowa’s edge rusher who might be best as a 3-4 defensive end A.J. Epenesa, to perhaps a talented safety in Alabama’s Xavier McKinney or LSU’s Grant Delpit, or perhaps an interior offensive line talent such as Wisconsin’s Tyler Biadasz or Oklahoma’s Creed Humphreys, or perhaps even someone not even fully on the radar yet who will emerge during the pre-draft process, the Broncos could go so many different ways and improve the team.
Bottom Line
In the end, it’s about adding guys that can be core players for the next decade on the Broncos’ roster. A betting man (or woman) would probably land on offensive tackle, wide receiver, or cornerback, but at this point, no one knows for certain.
With the team finally having a young quarterback to build around, the possibilities will be just as endless as the number of different mock drafts. In the end, the Broncos are going to have a chance to add another really good player that could end up an absolute stud and get that much closer to retaking the AFC West and climbing back into Conference relevance.
The hopefulness that comes with every offseason will be boundless in Denver this year with no better embodiment of that optimism than that of April and the talent the Broncos could add to this team via the draft.
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
