A Step-by-Step Guide to Broncos Solving Their Identity Crisis in 2021
To say the 2020 season has been difficult for the Denver Broncos would be an understatement. The stark juxtaposition of the teams competing for the playoffs in the AFC with those that are not is painfully apparent as we head into Week 17.
The Broncos could pick as high as fifth overall and as low as No. 15 in April’s draft. It's understandable that there is considerable consternation in Broncos Country when it comes to the team's identity as it looks to build on this season to return to contention, but there are some significant challenges to navigate this offseason.
Heading into the last game of the season against the Las Vegas Raiders, it would be a good opportunity for the Broncos to mix it up and get more snaps for some of the depth players on the team, specifically linebacker Joe Jones, running backs LeVante Bellamy and Jeremy Cox, and offensive tackle Calvin Anderson.
It will also be interesting to see transplanted cornerback Parnell Motley get an extended audition after De’Vante Bausby was benched last week. Right now, it's safe to say the Broncos lack an identity.
Entering 2021, solving that identity crisis will be crucial. How do the Broncos navigate the offseason in order to forge that identity? Let me break it down.
Next Two Years are Crucial for Broncos' Brass
Head coach Vic Fangio and offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur are purportedly safe for 2021, but after five years of missing the playoffs and a substantial rebuild on the foundation of the Broncos' 2018-20 draft classes, this is a coaching staff, front office, and ownership situation that need to become competitive. Right now, Fangio has the confidence of GM John Elway, and seems to have been given a 'Mulligan' this year due to how the pandemic affected the 2020 season. That confidence, however, can only go so far when it's losing season after losing season.
To elaborate on this point, the Broncos have to wait for the outcome of the lawsuit brought by the late Pat Bowlen's two oldest daughters against the Bowlen Trust, which was postponed to July. Essentially, it boils down to Beth Bowlen Wallace, Amie Bowlen Klemmer, and Pat's brother Bill Bowlen challenging the implementation of the three-person Trust to operate the Broncos and to decide the next owner.
The Trust seems to be coalescing around Bowlen’s younger daughter Brittany, although team President and CEO Joe Ellis has suggested that the Bowlen siblings will have to unanimously agree to who takes over, potentially putting the wheels in motion for a sale of the team sooner than expected.
Moreover, the Bowlen's and the Trust’s cash-flow issues, relative to the rest of the NFL, only limit the Broncos’ ability to generate more salary-cap flexibility through signing bonuses and such. Further down the line, but not necessarily that much farther, the Broncos will need to look at stadium improvements, more investment in training facilities, coaching staff, as well as contracts that are more long-term for players.
More pressingly, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has the ability to fine teams up to $10 million that do not have one person with the final say over all aspects of the team. Fundamentally, if one person isn’t ‘in-charge,’ then nobody is fully accountable.
That is not to say that a new owner will have a magic effect in curing all of the Broncos' ills but the accountability a single owner would provide could help. The lack of ownership and ultimate accountability have had a detrimental effect on the team’s identity and product on the field.
The Broncos can look to the Buffalo Bills and even the Carolina Panthers as positive examples of what new ownership could bring.
With the current Trust in charge, one has to feel that Elway’s job as general manager is safe for as long as he wants it, though the Duke of Denver is too prideful to move on from the Broncos with them in a state of flux and non-competitive. 2021 is the final year of his contract, however, and he'll turn 61 in June.
Most Likely Source for New QB Blood
Essentially, there are two veteran trade additions that make sense for the Broncos: Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold. There is a certain level of realpolitik of the coaching staff, front office, and ownership situation to put a competitive product on the field in 2021, which lends itself to a veteran addition. The Broncos are unlikely to be in position to get one of the ‘big four’ QBs in the 2021 draft without trading up.
Fangio and his staff are unlikely to hitch their wagon to a rookie when their job security is at stake, although Elway can likely take a longer-term view than the coaches can. The Broncos could at least call about Stafford, provided Detroit finishes with a draft position to land one of the top QBs in the draft class.
The reason for this is three-fold. First, if Denver was to acquire Stafford, he would be under contract for $20M in 2021 and $23M in 2022, which is excellent value for a competent veteran QB given today’s market. Second, Stafford’s contract structure of paying out $10M in year-to-year roster bonuses would be very much in keeping with Elway’s usual structure, although Stafford would likely ask for a re-structure to give him more in the way of guaranteed money.
Third, the NFL salary cap, though the floor is set at $175M for 2021, is expected to settle in the $185M-$190M range with owners expected to codify a 17-game season, which would give the Broncos more leeway with their dealings in free agency.
That being said, if Stafford was available, Detroit would have significant competition for his services. If the Broncos can avoid sending their first-round pick, it is an avenue that they could explore — even if they have to send multiple second-rounders to make it happen.
Darnold is another logical choice, to fit in the 2021-2022 window, and Elway really liked him as a draft prospect coming out USC three years ago. While the New York Jets are widely expected to draft a QB in the upcoming draft, which will cheapen his acquisition cost, a lot will come down to who they get as their head coach.
At No. 2 overall, the Jets are in position to get an elite QB prospect or get a blue-chipper like Oregon's Penei Sewell for their offensive line.
In a trade, the Broncos would have Darnold under contract for 2021 and would have until May 3 (after the draft) to decide on exercising his fifth-year option. Per the new CBA, that option would be fully guaranteed and dependent on on-field performance rather than draft slot, slightly reducing Darnold’s option cost to somewhere in the $20-24m range.
While Broncos QB Drew Lock has shown plenty of encouraging signs since Week 11's upset win over Miami — especially when it comes to his reads, decision making, and footwork — the team can’t afford to stand still. Lock's flashes have been more good than bad recently but there are still plenty of teachable moments when it comes to his overall performance.
While the Broncos can ‘make do’ and compete with a stronger roster elsewhere, the NFL is a QB-centric league and this team needs the horses at the QB position to compete in shoot-outs, especially in the AFC West.
The Broncos could go for a veteran backup/low-end starter type like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Blaine Gabbert, Brian Hoyer, or even Trevor Siemian, but frankly, they're capable veterans as spot-starters who would serve the aim of pushing Lock while upgrading the QB depth. It wouldn’t be wise for a coaching staff and front office that needs to win and compete to hang their hats on any one of these vets (and Lock) being consistent enough with their performance, though.
Tough Decisions Imminent
The overall theme of the upcoming offseason should follow the same vein as 2019 and 2020 for the Broncos: namely, use free agency to fill needs where possible, prioritize the re-signing of key pieces, and bolster roster depth entering the draft with at least a veteran answer at each position and no glaring needs.
Substance over splash. Fundamentally, how do the Broncos want to play football? Who does Denver want to build around?
Priority: Extend Miller & Lower Cap Hit
Von Miller has a $17.5M team option that has to be exercised before the first day of the 2021 league year. If exercised, $7M of his base salary will guarantee, and Miller will also be due a workout bonus of $500K. With a lot of uncertainty over Miller given his (soon-to-be 32 years of) age and returning from an ankle injury that cost him all of 2020, the Broncos could look to do some sort of extension with the aim of reducing the cap hit.
Such an extension would aim to give Miller a similar cash flow to his current structure, and lowering the cap hit to potentially fit in a splashier veteran addition elsewhere. Something like two fully guaranteed years followed by a term that is essentially year-to-year, helping the Broncos going ‘all-in’ on the 2021 season.
Whatever happens with Miller, the edge rusher position will have to be an early consideration in the draft given the overall strength of the prospects and the questionable depth the Broncos have behind Miller and Pro Bowler Bradley Chubb. Malik Reed has improved with experience, but there’s a lot of early buzz linking the Broncos to edge prospects such as Georgia’s Azeez Ojulari.
Here's what a Miller extension could look like entering his age-32 season.
Do Right by Simmons & Harris
The Broncos have the potential to use the franchise tag again with Pro Bowl safety Justin Simmons but doing right by a key leader would be recognized by the locker room when it comes to their future extensions. The Broncos cannot offer Simmons a new deal until after the season but there are other safeties who could look to be paid that could drive up his price.
A second franchise tag will be at 120% of his franchise tag in 2020, around $13,7M, but would give the Broncos until July to reach a long-term agreement.
Defensive lineman Shelby Harris has really made the most of his opportunity playing on a one-year deal. Given his performance, it would be a mistake to let him walk.
Harris has really stepped up his game down the stretch and showed an excellent bull rush against the Los Angeles Chargers last week, while Dre’Mont Jones has developed and rookie McTelvin Agim figures to be more of a factor next year.
Defensive back Will Parks was an underrated pickup mid-way through the season, but re-signing him makes sense given the Broncos' shaky secondary depth. At least one of Nate Hairston or De’Vante Bausby would be a smart re-signing, albeit at the veteran minimum with minimal guarantees. Kevin Toliver is a pending restricted free agent, but the Broncos could decline the tender and re-sign him to a veteran minimum deal but he's recovering from a torn ACL so that's might not happen. These players would be good to have around as a No. 4 or 5 cornerback.
Extending right tackle Elijah Wilkinson at a rate similar to his current deal would represent good value because of his versatility, scheme familiarity, and ability to play on both sides. Tight ends Jake Butt and Troy Fumagalli are RFAs but the Broncos could bring either back for cheap, veteran competition in camp.
Cut or Trade Casey, Bouye, & Jackson
It is of the utmost importance that the Broncos work out who is going to be around for the next two-year window. If a player isn't part of those plans, regardless of his salary, the Broncos would be wise to flip them for a draft pick, even if it’s moving up late on Day 3.
Elway has managed to get something for cornerback Isaac Yiadom when it looked like he might be cut, and good GMs know when to move on from players who aren’t part of the future plans. Fangio really wanted A.J. Bouye for his scheme, but he’s in the last year of his contract with no dead money, has not performed well, and has had some lingering injuries to say nothing of the six-game suspension the NFL handed down, costing him four games this year and two next.
Cutting or trading Bouye would free up $13.3M in cash and cap. Trading defensive lineman Jurrell Casey would free up $11.8M in cash and cap that can go towards Harris’ extension. Safety Kareem Jackson, if cut, would free up $10M in cash and cap, once the dead cap is accounted for if moved, although he might be more valuable to the Broncos than other teams.
Other trade options could include linebacker Josey Jewell, wideout DaeSean Hamilton, and running back Royce Freeman.
Tender & Trade Lindsay & Patrick
Tim Patrick is a restricted free agent who, as Mile High Huddle's Bob Morris recently pointed out, might be a tender-and-trade candidate, given so much of the Broncos’ resources being allocated to the wide receiver position, his questionable fit when the Broncos move to three-receiver sets, age, and the fact he might want (and get) an opportunity to start given his play this season.
And yes, while it's expected the Broncos will use a second-round tender on star running back Phillip Lindsay, considering him as a tender-and-trade option would be wise, given his limited value in the passing game, one-dimensional running style, age, high usage, and injury history.
Lindsay has 534 carries in 42 NFL games to go with 765 collegiate carries and is approaching his age-27 season. New York's Saquon Barkley is approaching his age-24 season, and was part of the same draft class, for context.
Make the Right Core Re-Signings
Elway and his right-hand Matt Russell have done a solid job at acquiring talent in a variety of different ways, but ultimately, draft classes are measured by their contributions over four to five years, and teams don’t want to suffer developing talent for other teams to reap the rewards.
It's imperative that the Broncos navigate signing the bulk of the 2018-20 draft classes to second contracts because they're the core this team will be built on as the team looks to compete in the future. It's the outright failure of the 2013-15 classes to have meaningful contributions and second contracts that caused the Broncos to have such a seismic split in their locker room and a collapse in leadership, to say nothing of the standings.
The Broncos must keep in mind the need to retool an aging defense with an infusion of youth and talent while balancing leadership. Miller, if not extended, is a free agent after 2021. So is Bouye, Jackson, cornerback Bryce Callahan, and running back Melvin Gordon. The Broncos have a lot of needs on defense, and when it comes to the draft, pretty much every position can be viewed as a need.
The upcoming season is the last under contract for the 2018 draft class. The Broncos are expected to pick up Chubb’s fifth-year option by the May 3 deadline, but there are some valid reasons why the team might choose to decline. Chubb was named to his first Pro-Bowl which would make his option equivalent to the transition tag at the antiquated linebacker position, currently projected to be around $13M. Chubb’s injury issues must cause consternation in Dove Valley because that would be fully guaranteed as soon as it is enacted.
Injured Pro Bowl wideout Courtland Sutton is due to be a free agent after 2021. He would be eligible for the proven performance escalators introduced for the 2018 draft class onward under the new CBA.
After last season, Sutton would have been a slam-dunk re-sign, but a lot will depend on how he looks coming off his ACL tear. There are few positions for the Broncos which seem like strengths, but are weaker than they appear, and WR is one of them.
Jewell and Hamilton have value as reliable scheme-familiar veteran depth, but are hardly ‘must re-signs.’ Lindsay and linebacker Alexander Johnson would also hit unrestricted free agency in 2022, but given their age and positional value, the Broncos would be better served letting them walk at that point, or trying to trade them before they hit free agency.
Missing-in-action right tackle Ja'Wuan James is an early cap-casualty cut-candidate after the 2021 season, so while tackle isn’t an early-round need, if the right talent falls in the draft, the Broncos would be wise to continue to invest in the position. Prospects like Alabama’s Alex Leatherwood and USC’s Alijah Vera-Tucker would make sense and provide value should they fall to the second round because of their versatility to play guard and tackle on either side — essentially fulfilling the role of Wilkinson in the short to medium term, but with more upside to potentially provide a better answer should the Broncos move on.
After that, the Bronco will have a lot of significant issues and decisions to make with re-signing their 2019 class, including extending Chubb, left guard Dalton Risner, and Dre’Mont Jones, and then there’s the Drew Lock question.
Broncos Need More Out of 2020 Draft Class
The Broncos' 2020 draft class has a lot of promise. Wideouts Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler have complementary skill-sets to - Sutton and - Patrick. The rookies have shown flashes of dynamic talent, but have a lot of teachable moments too.
Justin Strnad will be part of the puzzle at off-ball linebacker but the Broncos need to keep investing in the position with athletic talents and turn it into a strength. It’s the same for the injured Albert Okwuegbunam and the tight end group.
Cornerback Michael Ojemudia has had useful contributions on defense but it is important the class takes the next step to be the rock-solid foundation for when the Broncos look to come out of their rebuild window. In 2021, the training wheels will be off.
Bottom Line
With the 2020 season almost in the books, the Broncos’ big decisions will come into sharper focus. There is a core to work with, and Elway can play the board in the draft to move up for the right talent, and down where the opportunity presents itself.
However, it is important that Elway, Russell, and Fangio do not stand still. This trio got their Mulligan. Now they need to find the Broncos' identity.
Follow James on Twitter @JamesC_MHH and @MileHighHuddle.
