Analytics Suggest Broncos QB Russell Wilson Still has Multiple Elite Seasons Left in Career
The Seattle Seahawks made the unfathomable decision to trade quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos this past week. Broncos fans have to keep pinching themselves to be sure the trade wasn’t a dream.
Whatever the reason Seattle's decision-makers sent Wilson packing, the Broncos got a special player to lead their offense.
Why is Wilson so special?
Since 1960 (including the AFL quarterbacks), there have been 1,518 (qualifying) quarterback seasons. I've analyzed all of them and adjusted them for era.
Wilson is one of 132 quarterbacks to be in the top-400 of those qualifying seasons. In fact, six of his seasons are in the top-400. Only 12 other quarterbacks since 1960 had six before they turned 34 years old.
That's rarified air. Wilson should be considered NFL quarterback royalty.
The other quarterbacks in this elite club go by the names of Marino, Unitas, Manning, Brady, Brees, Tarkenton, Montana… you get the picture. Again, the Seahawks' brain trust must have lost its mind to trade Wilson.
Of those 12 quarterbacks in this elite club in NFL history, only four did not play at least five more years. Those four are Bob Griese, Dan Fouts, Johnny Unitas, and Ken Anderson.
All of them retired long before NFL rules were implemented to keep the quarterbacks safe and healthy. The likelihood of Wilson playing at least five more seasons is strong.
What's even more impressive, of the remaining eight quarterbacks who played into their twilight years, only one didn’t have at least two more seasons in the top-400 all time. Even though Dan Marino owns the best season, adjusted for era, of all time, he could not continue his elite play after age 33. .
Of the remaining seven quarterbacks who played late into their graybeard days, two produced two seasons in the top-400 and five had three or more seasons in the top-400.
It's not only probable that Wilson can play several more seasons, but it's highly likely that he'll produce at least two more elite campaigns. Wilson is 10 years into his Hall-of-Fame-caliber career and it boggles the mind that he fell into the Broncos' lap.
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