Broncos at Falcons Week 9 Odds: Denver Opens as Road Underdogs | What it Means
Week 8 was obviously a great opportunity for bettors to get in on the Denver Broncos and trust in the offense to finally start clicking. The matchup between those two AFC West opponents blew past the over/under and of course, with the Broncos being underdogs, they were able to cover the spread over the Chargers.
Hopefully, those fans who put money on the Broncos weren't among those who turned off the game in the third quarter, believing it was over as that 21-point deficit was eliminated as Denver emerged victorious. This week, the Broncos once again find themselves as underdogs, only this time to a team with a worse record in the Atlanta Falcons.
The spread as of right now is -3.5 in favor of the Falcons, meaning the Broncos are 3.5-point underdogs.
The Broncos have won three of their last four games, but for the most part, the sports-betting world still does not believe this team has climbed out of the NFL doldrums. I was a little shocked to see Atlanta favored by more than three points as that usually signals the home team being viewed as the better overall team.
It could also have something to do with Atlanta having 10 days to prepare after their most recent victory over Carolina on October 29. Whatever the reason, this is looking like another toss-up game for the Broncos.
For those eyeing Week 9 with a bettor's eye, here are the odds according to SportsBetting.com.
ATS: -3.5
Over/Under: 50.5
Moneyline: Broncos +176/Falcons -200
Breaking it Down
ATS: If there is a place to put your money towards the Broncos, the spread might just be your bet. This season, the Broncos are 5-2 against the spread while the Falcons are only 3-5. In fact, in their last 16 home games, the Falcons have only won three by four or more points.
In the last four games in which the Falcons have been home-favorites, they've come up short every single time. On the flip-side, the Broncos are 4-1 against the spread on the road in their last five games.
This line won't be moving very much so if one was of a mind to wait and see which injuries keep which big names out of the game, that would be a wise decision. The Broncos could be without cornerback A.J. Bouye (concussion), wideout Tim Patrick (hamstring), running back Phillip Lindsay (toe), tight end Nick Vannett (foot), while even cornerback Bryce Callahan found his name on the injury report on Wednesday.
It's also worth mentioning that defensive line leader Shelby Harris was placed on the COVID/Reserve list, though he hasn't tested positive for the virus. He's at risk of missing Week 9. One big name for the Falcons to keep an eye on is wideout Calvin Ridley, who leads the team receptions, yards, and touchdowns so far this season.
Over/Under: This might be the toughest bet of the game. The Broncos are coming off one of their best offensive outputs of the season against a good defense in the Chargers. On the flip-side, the Falcons have shown they can put up a lot of points in a hurry with a 40-point output against the Vikings and a 39-point game against the Cowboys.
The Broncos have also given up 28 or more points in three of their last four games while the Falcons have only kept one opponent below the 23-point mark this season. Both teams are also trending in different directions of whether they hit the over or the under.
The Broncos have hit the over in four of their last six games while the Falcons have hit the under in four of their last six games. I lean a little towards the over with the Broncos showing some life on offense and could be getting back their top receiver in Patrick this week. Really, though, this is a toss-up of whether it will be a defensive showing or a shootout.
Moneyline: As another toss-up, like last week, anyone betting on the Falcons would be wise to bet the spread. It might be a little riskier but the reward is worth it. The Falcons have a moneyline of -200, meaning that if you were to bet $100, you would walk away with $50 in winnings.
If you're intent on betting the Broncos, the moneyline might just be for you. The Broncos right now are set at +176, meaning that if you place a $100 bet, you'd end up winning $176 if Denver finds a way to win this weekend.
Bottom Line
The Broncos have a huge chance over these next couple of weeks to really change the narrative surrounding the team. Right now, many still view Denver as a bottom-10 team in the NFL and the Broncos would likely be considered underdogs in every remaining game if they took the odds out beyond a couple of weeks.
The Broncos have two straight road games against beatable opponents in the Falcons and Raiders that could get them above .500 for the first time in a long time. If that happens, the Broncos could find themselves as the favorite in a few of the remaining games.
The Falcons are a team heading in the wrong direction, but they have kept most games this season extremely competitive. Which of these two teams can hang onto a lead or be able to score when it absolutely needs a touchdown?
I expect the game on Sunday will be within one score and so the decision on where to place one's money comes down to which team is trusted more.
Follow Carl on Twitter @CarlDumlerMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
