These 3 Factors Will Determine if Broncos Stick With Drew Lock as 2021 QB
A few weeks back, I broke down the issue of whether the Denver Broncos should be drafting a quarterback in 2021, depending on their overall record, and at what point they end up drafting in the first round.
One point I brought up was, if the Broncos finished with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, they had to take Trevor Lawrence. Since the Broncos won't finish with that pick, we no longer need to discuss that point.
We can still consider the Broncos' overall record and draft position to determine whether or not it makes sense to draft a quarterback early. But we need to add another element now that we have a clearer picture of where things stand throughout the NFL.
I recently compiled a list of teams that may be thinking about a quarterback change this coming offseason, depending on various factors. That list included about half the teams in the NFL.
With that many teams seeking quarterbacks, it could mean the Broncos are most likely sticking it out with Drew Lock for 2021. Here are the three factors that'll determine whether Denver sticks with Lock as the 2021 QB.
Broncos Record Under Lock
Let's first get back to what I wrote about the Broncos' overall record and how that tied into going with Lock for another season.
Back in October, when the Broncos were 1-4 overall, Lock was injured and the team was supposed to be preparing to play the Patriots, I wrote this:
"Looking ahead, the Broncos have a few winnable games but not a lot, given the amount of injuries they've had. I think the Dolphins and Panthers are teams that the Broncos should be able to beat.
There's a good chance they can split with the Raiders and the Chargers, too. Those teams have been inconsistent and the Broncos have shown they can beat them under Vic Fangio."
I also wrote that I believed the Broncos could go 5-11 or 6-10, even if Lock sat out until the team's original bye week in Week 8.
Of course, the Patriots game got moved, and we know what happened there, with the good news being that (a) Lock returned and (b) the Broncos won.
What's happened since, though, is that the Broncos have split with the Chargers and beaten both the Dolphins and Panthers. Of course, it remains to be seen whether Denver splits with the Raiders.
But what we do know is the Broncos will be either 5-11 or 6-10 to finish the season. We also know that the Broncos have gone 4-8 since Lock returned from his Week 2 injury, and that will be either 4-9 or 5-8, depending on the outcome of the Raiders game. Again, considering the injuries the Broncos have had, getting four or five wins since Lock's return should be viewed as a good thing.
I also wrote, in summary, that if the Broncos finish No. 6 to No. 10 in draft order, the evidence more likely than not favors building around Lock. While Lock has been inconsistent since his return from injury, he's doing a few things better than he was earlier in the season, so I'm leaning toward the Broncos giving him another year.
Lots of Teams May Need QBs
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But there is another reason why the Broncos, need to ride it out with Lock: Lots of NFL teams might be looking for quarterbacks next season and, thus, the cost to either acquire a veteran in trade or to move up the board to get one, is going to rise.
Let's go over the teams who could be looking for a new quarterback this offseason, for one reason or another, in order of their draft priority.
Jaguars: We all know what's going to happen here should Lawrence declare for the 2021 draft. And, no, there's no chance for the Broncos to trade up to No. 1 overall — especially when they aren't likely to draft higher than 10th overall.
For those that want to argue that Lawrence will refuse to play for a losing team, quarterbacks who didn't want to go to teams with the No. 1 overall pick were more concerned about not trusting the owner or general manager. I suspect Shahid Khan, the Jags owner, understands that and will do whatever he can to build trust with Lawrence and make him comfortable with playing for his team.
Jets: There's some talk that the Jets may not draft a quarterback, but I'm not convinced. If they are convinced one of the top prospects is their guy, they'll take him at No. 2 overall.
Even so, they are going to need somebody in the fold to push Sam Darnold, who has failed to impress in three seasons. I'm not sold that adding a veteran backup is going to do that.
Falcons: It's easy to think the Falcons will continue to build around Matt Ryan, but they'll have a new front office taking over and Ryan isn't getting any younger (he'll be 36 next year). I'm not convinced you do a rebuild around a 36-year old quarterback.
If the Falcons find a quarterback in the 2021 draft class that they love, it's going to be hard to pass him up at No. 4 overall. And having Ryan on board gives them the perfect bridge quarterback to a player they draft. If Ryan plays well in 2021, he can always be traded after the season.
Lions: You hear a lot of talk about the Lions possibly wanting to trade Matthew Stafford. I won't rule it out, given that the Lions are at the No. 7 overall pick at this time and, thus, are in perfect position to get a quarterback they like.
Stafford, though, could be the perfect bridge QB if they draft one early, so there's no guarantee he's traded. Even so, if the Lions just want to rebuild — and Stafford will be 33, plus his health could be in question — that means the Lions are a team likely to want a QB change.
Giants: There's still a chance the Giants could finish with the NFC East crown, even with a 6-10 record. If they do manage to get to the playoffs, they might have to stick with Daniel Jones for another year.
But if they finish 5-11, the Giants likely draft ahead of Denver, and given that there are lots of questions about Jones, New York might be prepared to make a QB change. If so, there's another team chasing after the top QB prospects in the draft.
Panthers: Here's another team drafting before the Broncos (at least, going into the final week of the season) who is likely to want a new quarterback.
The contract they gave Teddy Bridgewater wasn't cheap, but it was short enough to indicate the Panthers saw him as a bridge QB, not the long-term solution. If the Panthers finish higher in the draft order after the season ends, the chances they take a quarterback only increase.
Cowboys: There's a chance the Cowboys could win the NFC East, which means they may make a stronger push to keep Dak Prescott, or perhaps talk themselves into giving Andy Dalton a multi-year deal.
However, if they fail to win the division, they are in the running to draft a quarterback early. And they could very well be a team that makes a bold move up the board to get one.
49ers: Currently slated to draft 14th overall, you would think the Niners will give Jimmy Garoppolo another year, but between injuries and inconsistent play, there's no guarantee.
I don't think the Niners are as much of a threat to draft a QB In the first round, but they could look at one in later rounds. They could also be a team that pursues a QB in free agency or trade, and they have shown they are willing to pay (in some cases, overpay) to get their guys.
Patriots: Cam Newton has looked good at times but really isn't the long-term answer. There will be those who will say the Pats will just wait until Garappolo is cut, then reunite with him, but he's not the long-term answer, either.
Therefore, the Patriots might have their eyes on the top QB prospects. While I don't think they trade up, they could trade down, accumulate picks, then take a Day 2 prospect late in the first. Or they may just wait until Day 2.
Raiders: It seems Derek Carr keeps sticking around despite rumblings Jon Gruden wants somebody else. However, with Marcus Mariota looking respectable when he was called into action, and the Raiders' salary cap issues, they have to pick between Carr and Mariota.
If they cut Carr and keep Mariota, that increases the chances the Raiders try to draft a quarterback early. If they stick with Carr, that doesn't rule out drafting a QB — day two could be when they make a move to get somebody.
Colts: Despite the fact they could finish 11-5 overall, they could still miss the playoffs. On top of that, Philip Rivers will turn 40, he's on a one-year deal and might retire, plus current backup Jacoby Brissett is a free agent.
While the Colts have been tied to Carson Wentz, it's not a given the trade happens. Still, if both Rivers and Brissett are gone, the Colts have to get aggressive in finding a QB — and if they settle for another stopgap, they might start thinking about drafting a QB early, perhaps even making a bold move up the draft board. Or they may wait until the second round for that move.
Washington: Right now, it's WFT who holds the tiebreakers to win the NFC East, but whether this team wins the division or not, the team is in desperate need of a quarterback. Dwayne Haskins is gone, Alex Smith may retire and Taylor Heinicke is unlikely to be the guy to build around.
If Washington makes the playoffs, they're likely aggressive in free agency or trades for a veteran, or they may be tempted to take a day two prospect late in the first. If Washington misses the playoffs, the team is in the running to trade up if there's a guy the team wants.
Bears: Here's a team that may be heading to the playoffs, but that doesn't mean the Bears have their quarterback. The "extend Mitchell Trubisky" crowd appears to have forgotten what happened when the Jaguars extended Blake Bortles after a trip to the AFC title game, and how that experiment turned out.
Of course, it's possible the Bears do fool themselves into extending Trubisky. But it's just as possible they let him walk and look elsewhere, meaning free agency and the trade market are likely options, with the draft a possibility if those avenues don't work out.
Saints: Why would a Super Bowl contender need a quarterback after this season? Answer: Because their top quarterback might retire.
If Drew Brees calls it a career, the Saints will need a quarterback, and given their cap issues for 2021, free agency isn't the answer. That means they either trade for a cheap QB (meaning somebody on a rookie contract like Gardner Minshew or Jordan Love) or drafting a QB. If they go the latter route, they might take a day two prospect in the first round.
Steelers: Another playoff contender who might need a quarterback because retirement could come calling for the current starter. Ben Roethlisberger may be coming off a glorious comeback this past week, but the reality is that Father Time has caught up with him.
If Big Ben calls it a career, the Steelers fall into the same boat as the Saints: They have cap trouble, so free agency isn't the answer, meaning it's either trade for a cheap QB on a rookie deal or perhaps roll the dice on a Day 2 prospect in the first round if they draft toward the end.
Draft Position
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By my count, that's 15 teams other than the Broncos who might consider a quarterback change. With so many teams seeking quarterbacks, it's hard not to envision that asking prices for QBs will go up, whether they are free agents or on the trading block.
And after those dominoes fall, there could still be plenty of teams thinking about drafting a quarterback, meaning the top guys could be off the board, even if the Broncos draft at No. 10 overall. Even if the Broncos finish higher, certain teams could get aggressive in moving up the board.
With John Elway entering the final season of his current contract, it's easy to think he'll go "all in" to save his job. However, an "all in" move that fails not only means Elway is gone, but also that lots of cash or draft picks (or both) have been spent for that "all in" move, possibly leaving the next GM with less draft capital to find the next quarterback.
It's easy to get caught up in the shiny new toys in the draft, or to pine for the veteran who puts up the numbers, but the truth is, the shiny new toys other than Lawrence are "maybe" in terms of whether or not they can be the guy, and the veterans who put up the numbers, if their current teams move on from them, will beg the question "why are they moving on?"
What it Means for Broncos
Lock may not have definitively answered whether or not he's the guy, but between the Broncos' overall record, draft position, and the field of teams in need of quarterbacks, the Broncos could find the cost to get that next guy to be far more than it's worth.
The Broncos are best served by being patient in free agency and waiting until prices drop. They at least know that Brett Rypien can be a decent backup, so they aren't in a situation in which they have to pay $2M fully guaranteed to somebody like Jeff Driskel.
And let's face it: Part of the reason Driskel got that money was that the Broncos had no proven backup. With Rypien having shown he can be a backup, the Broncos can afford to wait the market out, then get somebody experienced but possibly without having to guarantee him money.
The Broncos can still look at the draft for prospects, and I'd take a guy on Day 2 if one falls down the board and is worth taking. Don't worry about the odds on Day 2 QBs becoming starters — you are simply looking for a guy who can push Lock and, if push comes to shove, who might show he can be a better backup than Rypien or somebody who at least the next regime can work with as a cheap bridge guy.
After the draft, if there's a cheap QB available for minimal 2022 draft capital, you can consider a trade. Even though I don't think the Jets move forward with Darnold, I doubt they trade him now that Lawrence is out of the question, unless somebody blows them away with an offer. Minshew could be available, but teams like the Saints or Steelers could step in with offers that drive the price up.
The debates about Lock will continue in the offseason, of course, and while everyone has an opinion, we have no idea for sure what trajectory his career could take if he gets 2021.
Just be sure to ask yourself the question about how high you want to go if you want to replace Lock — because it won't surprise me if the price to get another quarterback goes higher than you may want to pay.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
