Advanced Metric Reveals Broncos Bordering on Being Historically Bad
Even though the Denver Broncos defense looked decent enough against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6, it’s still an historically bad unit. Meanwhile, the Broncos offense is regressing and it’s harder to look at the unit as one that can make up for defensive struggles.
Aaron Schatz’s DVOA football metric, which determines how effective teams are on offense, defense and special teams, had the Broncos defense as the worst defense ever tracked through the first five weeks. After six weeks, that defense is no longer the worst. However, that’s not high praise because the Broncos defense is the second worst through six weeks after the 1998 Cincinnati Bengals.
Through six weeks, the Broncos are last in defensive DVOA at 30.4%. Keep in mind that when it comes to defense, DVOA is better when it is negative. The next worst defense is the Arizona Cardinals at 21.1%.
While the Broncos weren’t bad defensively against the Chiefs, the bottom line is the defense is still on track to be one of the worst units of all time. This is, after all, a defense that gave up multiple big plays to the Miami Dolphins, relinquishing 70 points. Denver has since allowed several lesser offenses to look like world beaters.
As for the Broncos offense, that unit is getting worse by the week. The Broncos offense is at -3.2%, ranked 17th overall. And while Denver's defense has its issues, to put the blame for the offense’s struggles on Vance Joseph's unit is short-sighted.
In reality, the Broncos have issues with pass protection, and Russell Wilson is struggling of late. Wilson’s ups and downs are a reason why it’s fair to wonder when it’s time for Denver to bench him, even if it means starting Jarrett Stidham.
Special teams is the only area in which the Broncos have done a good job overall. The Broncos special teams ranks second overall at 3.5 percent.
League wide, most special teams units aren’t high in terms of DVOA, particularly compared to the top offsets and defenses. For instance, the New York Jets have the top special teams at 6.3% while the Philadelphia Eagles are third at 3.2%.
Compare that to the top three-ranked DVOA offenses: the Dolphins at 40.3%, the San Francisco 49ers at 30.8%, and the Buffalo Bills at 27.3%. Or compare that to the top three defenses: the Cleveland Browns at -29.3%, the Baltimore Ravens at -16.6% and the Detroit Lions at -16.5%.
My point is not to dismiss the Broncos’ special teams improvement. Broncos fans know just how bad special teams has been in recent seasons, so it’s good to see better play there, even if it’s not perfect.
My point, rather, is twofold. First, to note that special teams doesn’t necessarily score high in DVOA, whereas you are more likely to score high in offense and defense. Second, to note that having good special teams means little when your offense and defense aren’t good.
Only time will tell whether the Broncos defense avoids historic levels of bad in the weeks to come. However, I think it’s safe to say the Broncos will finish at the bottom of the pile for 2023.
As for the offense, that unit is in danger of racing to the NFL doldrums as well. And in both cases, it’s a sign that the Broncos need to rebuild more than anything else.
Follow Mile High Huddle on Twitter and Facebook.
Subscribe to Mile High Huddle on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!
