Analyzing the True Cost of Broncos Trading for Sean Payton
If there were no cost to get Sean Payton, he would already be announced as a head coach in the NFL. Since the New Orleans Saints still have Payton under contract, for a team like the Denver Broncos, there is going to be a negotiation period with both the coach and the Saints.
Unfortunately, nobody knows what it will take to pry him away from his contract, but we know it cost the hiring team draft picks. Is it worth losing those selections in the upcoming draft to hire Payton?
By examining the high and low scenarios, we can decide if any draft selections are too much. However, even the high-end scenario is not as costly as some might think.
I have calculated the probability of drafting an impact player or a primary starting player for each round in the draft by crunching the numbers over the past 12 NFL years. An impact player is someone who makes enough of a difference that the player gets selected for All-Pro awards or invites to the Pro Bowl.
It's an indication that they made enough of an impact that they are viewed better than most of their peers. A primary starter is a player who has started for a team at least 50% of their time since entering the league. The latter is not a particularly high bar to meet.
New Orleans' starting price for Payton is at least a first-round selection. The Broncos hold a very late first-round pick from the San Francisco 49ers. It will be no lower than the 29th selection.
The probability of selecting an impact player in that part of the first round is .290, or just higher than 25%. That is not a high value. The probability of getting a primary starter is significantly higher at .511 or just over 50%. It can be argued that a primary starter could be obtained in free agency to bridge the gap.
The last five players the Broncos have selected in the 20th spot or later have been Noah Fant, Garett Bolles, Paxton Lynch, Shane Ray, and Bradley Roby. Bolles is the only player that could be considered an impact player, although Roby was valuable as a third corner in the Broncos' Super Bowl 50 season. If it is only one first-round pick, it is a no-brainer to trade for Payton.
If the cost is the high-end scenario of two first-round selections and two second-rounders, the probability of getting an impact player triples. However, it is not a certainty.
The probability is .676 of selecting a single impact player with all of those picks and .084 of selecting two. Even with the high-end scenario, it's not a massive loss in the chance to pick up an impact player.
When examining the primary starters probability, it's likely the Broncos would miss out on only two of those types of players. A player similar to Dalton Risner, who was selected in the second round and has not been overly impressive.
To add one final point to this analysis is to understand whether losing draft picks sets the franchise back. One could consider the Herschel Walker trade, which is thought of as the largest fleecing of any trade in NFL history.
The Minnesota Vikings gave up eight draft picks, including three first-round and three second-rounders over the next three seasons, along with numerous players. Walker ended up being very ineffective after going to the Vikings, averaging under 800 yards per season, and was gone after his third season with the club. The Vikings still went to the playoffs four times in six seasons once the trade was completed.
Bottom Line
Trading away draft picks is not as devastating as people tend to believe. It's the 'what is behind door number three' mentality that is so enticing.
It's the unknown of what the team could have had that deters the trades, but in reality, what is behind door No. 3 is usually not an All-Star player, even in the first round. Furthermore, those All-Star players need a leader to get the most out of them on the field.
Everyone just watched how massively ineffective Nathaniel Hackett was in 2022. If the Broncos want to get Payton, the draft capital should not be the deterrent.
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