Broncos 2021 Offseason Mock: Roster Cuts, Free Agency, Trades & Draft
With George Paton hired as the GM, the Denver Broncos are done shifting the front office, but more changes are expected to come after the 2021 NFL draft is over.
When a new GM is hired, teams don't typically create massive front-office changes until the scouting process until it in the books and the focus can shift to a new year. During his introductory zoom conference, one thing Paton said really stuck out.
Paton really wants to build the Broncos through the draft, but he also wants more darts to throw. Accumulating capital will be a theme reflected in today's offseason mock with moves made to acquire more draft picks this year and even 2022.
So, before getting to the mock draft, we have to first get through free agency. Right now, the Broncos sit with about $14.9 million in salary-cap space. Denver can add quite a bit of money to that by making a few roster cuts.
There are five players who find themselves as former Broncos.
Cuts/Declined Options
Von Miller | OLB: For obvious reasons, the hardest of the four on the list is Miller, but at 32 years old and coming off a major injury, combined with his cap hit, it's hard to retain him. Then there is the ongoing criminal investigation into Miller that factors in, and depending on what happens there, it could crystallize Paton's decision quickly.
A.J. Bouye | CB: He failed to live up to expectations when Denver acquired him and dealt with injuries and eventually a suspension. With no guaranteed money left, Denver gets out of the deal easily.
Jurrell Casey | DL: Like Bouye, Casey doesn’t have any guaranteed money left on his deal which makes it easy to get out of. An early injury limited Casey's ability to make an impact, but this year, the financial constraints lead him out the door.
Ja’Wuan James | RT: Denver lets the big mistake walk out the door with a June-1 designation cut. It doesn’t give the Broncos any added benefits financially or with cap room, but the team gets out of the two-year-old mistake that has played 63 snaps.
Jeff Driskel | QB: After a dismal showing when he did have to start, the Broncos part ways with Driskel and look for a different quarterback to backup Drew Lock.
Cumulative Cap Space: $55.2M
Exclusive Rights Free Agents
Tendered: S Trey Marshall, WR Diontae Spencer, OG Austin Schlottmann, and OT Calvin Anderson.
Re-Signings
This offseason it seems like the Broncos will have a bigger focus on retaining their own and spending most of their available cash and cap room to do so. There are six players that fall in this category.
Jake Butt & Troy Fumagalli | TEs: One-year, $1.5M deal, respectively.
Both showed some solid play, including Butt before he got hurt. There's no guaranteed money in the deal for Butt. Fumagalli actually played well down the stretch which should see him be retained for the duration of training camp at least.
Will Parks | DB: A year ago, he thought the grass was greener on the other side but that turned out incorrect. After returning to the Broncos last season and playing well, he may be a lot more open to staying even on a one-year, $3M deal.
Elijah Wilkinson | OT: It may be a tough one to swallow, but his play when he came back from injury wasn’t completely terrible. With James out the door, Denver keeps Wilkinson to at least give them a body that can start at right tackle. A one-year, $5M deal is about the max that should be offered here.
Shelby Harris | DL: With Casey gone, Harris is re-signed. Harris got hurt later in the season, so Denver can use that to try and keep the cost of the deal down a little bit. Offer him a three-year, $30M deal and he should take it.
Justin Simmons | S: He wants to be the highest-paid safety in the NFL. Denver makes him that and puts him back into the traditional Vic Fangio role that he has excelled in. Denver gets him done on a five-year, $75M deal to be the highest-paid safety. This also fits with something Paton said during his introductory press conference about rewarding those players the team hits on in the draft. It would be a bad message to say that and then not retain the biggest 'hit' Denver has had in recent years.
Cumulative Cap Space: $20M
How much salary cap space this leaves Denver is hard to say because of how the deals could be structured. For this reason, I'm going to project that the deals above would leave $20M left under the cap. That gives Denver some flexibility with the draft as well as some extra money for late training camp additions.
Restricted Free Agents
Denver has three big restricted free agents this year and I would expect them all to get tendered. There are three RFA levels, the first-, second-, and original-round tenders.
RFA Tenders: WR Tim Patrick, LB Alexander Johnson, and RB Phillip Lindsay all get hit with the second-round tender. This doesn’t mean each player sticks with the Broncos as Paton could still trade them away. However, it gives Denver some leverage whereas an original-round tender doesn’t because each name listed above was an undrafted free agent. These three would be ammo to get more darts.
Free Agent Additions
Andy Dalton | QB: Denver spent most of its money and put most of its cap space in keeping its own players. The only free-agent signing the Broncos make is for a veteran quarterback.
Denver had an interest in Dalton a year ago before he signed with the Cowboys. This year, Denver lands Dalton on a one-year, $4M deal.
Trades
To acquire more darts to throw, Denver makes a few trades to add capital.
Patrick Traded to Jets: New York could use a lot of help at wide receiver. The Jets have a good slot receiver in Jamison Crowder and a potential guy in Denzel Mims, but that isn’t much. New York used a second-round pick on Mims last year, but sends the Broncos a third-round pick (87 overall) for Patrick. The Jets have extra capital with two first-round picks and even another third-rounder.
Johnson Traded to Eagles: He's solid but limited and while moving him makes the Broncos weaker at linebacker, this is a great draft class to replace him. Denver sends Johnson to Philadelphia who has a major lack of talent at the linebacker position. Johnson would be an upgrade for Philadelphia and gives Paton more darts. The Eagles send a fifth-round pick in return.
Lindsay Traded to Dolphins: Lindsay's injuries, desire to get paid, and sub-par performance in 2020 make him potentially expendable in Denver. This RFA tender is about the best leverage the Broncos have and they turn it into a sixth-round pick out of the Miami Dolphins.
Mock Draft
A couple of notes about this mock draft. First, it's done through a simulator to replicate the picks of the other 31 teams. Denver’s picks are made using the 2021 NFL draft big board I've created based on my own scouting and opinions on prospects. Each trade is made using past trades as precedents.
TRADE: Broncos Swap with Bears, Moving from 9 to 20
Denver sat at No. 9 overall but the board wasn't falling favorably. There was a quarterback, but the sense coming out of Dove Valley is Paton will run it back with Lock. Instead, I had Denver trade down to keep acquiring picks. Chicago sits at pick 20 and is in need of a QB. The precedent for this trade was the Broncos-Steelers trade in 2019 that swapped pick 20, a second-, and a third-rounder in the following year for Denver's No. 10. With it being for a quarterback, a little more was required with Chicago giving up picks 20, 52, a 2022 second- and fourth-rounder. The Bears ended up selecting Trey Lance with pick 9.
TRADE: Broncos Swap with Browns, Moving from 20 to 26
After moving down to 20, a second move down was made. Denver traded down to 26 with Cleveland. This was based on a Seattle-Green Bay trade in the 2019 draft where the Packers gave up the No. 30 overall pick and two fourth-rounders to get to the No. 22 overall pick. For this trade, Denver gave up pick 20 and a 2022 fifth-rounder for pick 26 and two fourth-round picks from the Browns.
Round 1, Pick 26 (via CLE): Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia
After moving on from Miller, the Broncos needed an athletic edge rusher that can really get around tackles to get pressure. Ojulari has great length and athleticism to be that athletic pass rusher to balance out Bradley Chubb on the other side. While Ojulari will need to get a little stronger at the point of attack, he isn’t a complete liability on the edge. In this strong edge draft class, he has some of the best initial handwork when engaging.
Round 2, Pick 40: Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
Denver needs a potential No. 1 cornerback and someone who can work the boundary, which is where Stokes comes in. In a strong corner class, Stokes finds himself getting overlooked. In college, he has shown the scheme versatility to give him an added value boost, especially for the Broncos, who could find themselves in a new scheme next year.
Round 2, Pick 52 (via CHI): Richie Grant, Safety, UCF
Sticking with versatile players, we get to Grant, who had a really strong Senior Bowl week. It was a good enough week where he will not be in contention for being the first safety off the board (in this simulation he was the second). Grant has really good ball skills, a high football IQ, and good tackling technique. What he is lacking is consistency as well as his angles when coming downhill to help.
Round 3, Pick 71: Baron Browning, LB, Ohio State
The big theme of this mock is versatility in the draft. Not just with what role the prospects can play, but with what type of defenses they can thrive in. Browning is an excellent athlete that shows it off in every phase of defense. All of the traits to work in coverage, against the run, and as a pass rusher but the technique is lacking.
Round 3, Pick 87: Jackson Carman, OT, Clemson
Denver moved on from James in this mock and the team needs someone who can come in and be a starter day one. The good news is, there are plenty of Day 2 options that can start right away and Carman is one of them. He isn’t the most versatile tackle as he is a power/gap tackle only prospect, but it fits in well with what the Broncos currently run. However, there is enough lateral mobility there to work for outside zone, but it isn’t ideal. He has good length and hands that really shine when it comes to his work in pass blocking. His footwork is what he'll need to clean up for the NFL game.
Round 4, Pick 101 (via CLE): Davis Mills, QB, Stanford
Denver is running it back with Lock in this mock, but that doesn’t mean it won’t add better competition or even try to better its depth. Mills is a solid athlete with a good arm and solid placement. What goes against him is his 11 games of serious game action in his collegiate career. He's never flashed elite traits and he played so few games in college. That combined with injuries is why he slips to Day 3.
Round 4, Pick 105 (via CLE): Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB, Syracuse
A big and physical DB that can fit in a few different schemes. But Melifonwu's position and role would need to change. There are plenty of traits to work with along with great athleticism. He will need to play smarter and with better awareness at times in the NFL, as well as provide consistent technique. There have been some red flags off the field cropping up, which could cause him to fall.
TRADE: Broncos Send Picks 123 & 167 to Washington for Pick 115
The final trade saw the Broncos move up in the fourth round where they sent pick 123 (from the Browns trade) and 167 to Washington to get 115. This was based on a Detroit-Atlanta trade in 2019.
Round 4, Pick 115 (via WAS): Jaylen Twyman, IDL, Pittsburgh
Twyman was viewed as one of the best interior pass rushers during the 2019 season, but he also showed he needed a lot of work with getting consistent technique down as well as run defense. Then he opted out of the 2020 season leaving no chance to see the much needed improvements in key areas. With coach Bill Kollar, Denver has really developed the run defense of multiple D-line prospects and can use even more help getting interior pressure. which makes this an ideal match.
Round 5, Pick 134: Bobby Brown III, IDL, Texas A&M
That’s right, back-to-back defensive linemen which may not be viewed as a big need but Brown brings great versatility to line up from a 0- to 5-Tech with good run defense skills and a solid interior push. He would be a great developmental depth option to balance out the loss of Casey as Twyman balances out the loss of DeMarcus Walker.
Round 5, Pick 136: Shi Smith, WR, South Carolina
After investing both 2020 first- and second-round picks in wideouts, Denver doesn’t want to put another big investment there. However, the Broncos still can look to better their depth and give their offense more potential playmakers, especially with trading away Patrick. Smith killed it at the Senior Bowl and despite his size, he offers up some inside/outside versatility.
Round 6, Pick 183: Khalil Herbert, RB, Virginia Tech
Denver moved on from Lindsay and could be moving on from Melvin Gordon in 2022 so the team needs to upgrade its running back room. Herbert gives the Broncos a great scheme fit with the versatility to be a three-down back.
Round 7, Pick 201: D’Ante Smith, OT, East Carolina
A long developmental tackle who was really killing it at the Senior Bowl before he suffered a thumb injury. His college tape is good where he really uses some quick feet and his length to get some quick wins. The level of competition wasn’t great, which is why his Senior Bowl performance really plays a part in his evaluation. He looked like he beloned.
Round 7, Pick 203: Derrick Barnes, LB, Purdue
This betters the Broncos' depth at the position and gives them added competition for Josey Jewell’s role. Barnes will compete with Jewell and Justin Strnad. Barnes is a physical, downhill linebacker thay really answered some questions in coverage at the Senior Bowl. Not a great athlete, but one that can work.
Round 7, Pick 218: Chris Wilcox, DB, BYU
A versatile defensive back with solid length that can work as a corner or safety in the NFL depending on the scheme. He fits well with what Fangio runs on defense, but can be a big help on special teams right away at the very least.
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